GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW, ANALYSIS & FORECASTS:

Author: Dr. Alexander APOSTOLOV (researcher at Economic Research Institute at BAS)

European shares closed little changed on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 closing below 445 points after rising 1% in the previous session, while Germany's DAX gained 0.1% to close at 15,142. The Stoxx bank index recovered from losses earlier in the day to rise 0.6 percent, with Credit Suisse and UBS up 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. Deutsche Bank shares, on the other hand, fell more than 1% after reports that French authorities raided the offices of several major lenders, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, on suspicion of money laundering and fiscal fraud. Meanwhile, the real estate sector was under intense pressure, falling 2.7%. Yesterday, Citigroup warned that European real estate shares could fall by 50% as the sector faces higher debt-servicing costs and property valuations plummet. On the other hand, the energy sector rose nearly 2 percent, and the mining sector gained 1.5 percent. The CAC 40 ended choppy on Tuesday, inching up well off its session highs, after authorities raided major French banks amid an investigation into tax fraud and money laundering, amplifying confidence concerns at major European lenders. Société Générale closed down nearly 1 percent, while BNP Paribas pared losses at midday to close 0.4 percent higher. Energy producers, on the other hand, experienced an average growth rate of more than 2%. Meanwhile, protests against pension reforms continued, with strikes entering their 10th day on Tuesday, disrupting public transport and deliveries. On the data front, French business confidence fell slightly in March but remained above market forecasts. The FTSE MIB closed 0.4% higher in a volatile session on Tuesday, as upbeat corporate news shook investors off fresh worries about Europe's banking sector. French authorities raided five banks on Tuesday, including Societe Generale and BNP Paribas, as part of an investigation into alleged tax fraud and money laundering linked to dividend payments. Still, banks posted strong gains, with UniCredit up 4.4 percent after the European Central Bank approved a 3.3 billion-euro share buyback. Elsewhere, Telecom Italia rose 2.5 percent after Bloomberg News reported that Italy's state-backed banks were making a higher bid for the company's landline network. On the data front, indicators of business and consumer confidence in Italy improved in March to their highest levels since July 2022 and February, respectively, both of which topped market expectations. The IBEX 35 trimmed some of its morning gains to close at 8944 on Tuesday, trailing its European peers, as the market digested the latest banking sector news. The offices of several major French lenders, including Société Générale, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, were raided today by the country's authorities as part of a tax fraud investigation. However, the financial sector posted modest gains of around 1%. Also, the index was lifted by Repsol (2.01%), which enjoyed some respite in the heat of Brent oil revaluation. Other companies to advance include IAG (1.92%) and Cellnex Tel (1.63%).

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed just above a flat line at 2,440 on Tuesday, up 2 percent from the previous session, as investors continued to assess the outlook for the Russian economy as it readjusts to activity following the fallout from Western sanctions. Bank stocks led gains, buoyed by industry optimism and looming dividends. Moscow's financial sector has grown by more than 20 percent so far this year, underscoring the disconnect between Russia's financial markets and the external backdrop as Western sanctions shield Russian banks from the risk of contagion from jitters among global lenders. On the other hand, mining and energy companies posted losses.

London shares rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in the heavyweight energy and materials sectors, with the benchmark FTSE 100 closing just below 7,500. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK financial system is resilient, with strong capital and liquidity conditions and the ability to support the economy. Still, Bailey noted that rates may have to rise if there are signs that inflationary pressures persist. Meanwhile, much of the rally lost momentum following the day's tax raids on several French banks. Among individual stocks, oil giant BP rose 2.5 percent to lead the FTSE 100's gains, while miners Glencore and Rio Tinto were the biggest gainers, rising around 2.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

The blue-chip Dow traded near flatline Tuesday morning, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, even as recent actions by regulators and authorities helped ease concerns about the banking system. But investors remain cautious about the health of the U.S. economy. Despite the FSOC's assertion that the U.S. banking system is resilient and First Citizens BancShares' failed deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank, the recent collapse of two regional U.S. banks has raised fears of a recession and wider contagion. Shares of First Citizens Bank were nearly flat after surging more than 50 percent on Monday. In other corporate news, Alibaba Group Holding plans to split its business into six key divisions covering e-commerce, media, and cloud computing. Alibaba's U.S.-listed shares jumped nearly 10% following the news.

Canada S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% on Monday around 19,620, boosted by energy and banking stocks after First Citizen's takeover of Silicon Valley Bank inspired some confidence in the North American banking sector. The financial sector rose 0.7 percent, led by heavyweights TD Bank and BMO Bank, which rose 1.9 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. The energy sector also rose, rising 2.1 percent, led by gains in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, unlike their Wall Street counterparts, base metals stocks in Toronto edged up 0.2 percent, while technology stocks rose 0.6 percent. Tomorrow, investors' eyes will be on the announcement of Canada's federal budget.

The Hongkong Hang Seng Index rose 216.96 points, or 1.11%, to close at 19,784.65 on Tuesday, reversing losses in the previous two sessions, as peer First Citizens BancShares Inc. and officials from the Treasury Department to the Federal Reserve said they still think U.S. banks The system is sound and safe. On the mainland, Premier Li Qiang told Apple CEO Tim Cook and other foreign business executives that China would open up further. Financials led the gains, rising more than 1%, while consumer, technology, and real estate stocks also posted notable gains. Picc Property shares rose 10.2 percent, while Tencent Hlds shares rose 10.2 percent. Sinopharm shares rose 4.2 percent each. Other gainers included Li Auto (3.4%), China Resources Land (2.8%) and Meituan (2.1%). Investors are now awaiting data on Chinese manufacturing and service sector activity for March this week. They also expect a U.S. inflation report and several speeches from Fed officials.

The China Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% to close at 3,248 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.3% to close at 11,610 points, dragged down by profit-taking in high-tech stocks after similar moves on Wall Street overnight. Meanwhile, mainland stocks avoided further losses as concerns over recent banking turmoil eased. Investors welcomed a report that First Citizens Bank AG agreed to buy a large stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while CBN reported that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to the banking giant has slowed. The top losers in the technology sector were 360 Security Technology (-6.4%), Inspur Electronics (-6.8%), Hithink RoyalFlush (-3.7%), East Money Information (-3.3%), and Kunlun Technology (-6.2%).

Japan Nikkei 225 rose 0.25% to 27,546 and the Topix added 0.5% to 1,972, rising to a two-week high for a second straight session as fears of broader banking contagion eased. alleviated. U.S. financial stocks rallied on a report that First Citizens Bank AG agreed to buy a majority stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while Consumer News & Business reported that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to banking giants had slowed. Bank of Japan led the gains with Mitsubishi UFJ (1.8%), Sumitomo Mitsui (1.5%) and Mizuho Financial (1.6%) gaining strongly. Other index heavyweights also gained, including Keyence (1%), Toyota Motor (0.6%), Nippon Steel (0.6%), Kawasaki Kisen (0.9%), KDDI Corp (1.2%), and Inpex Corp (3.5%).

The India BSE Sensex erased early gains to close just below the flat line of 57,615 on Tuesday, close enough to a five-month low touched last week, as investors continued to show caution over challenges in the banking sector and the Adani Group scandal manner. Shares exposed to Adani Group and its corporate debt took a fresh hit after reports that the group was trying to renegotiate the terms of outstanding loans worth $4 billion. State Bank of India and Axis Bank both fell more than 0.5 percent, wiping out yesterday's rebound. On the other hand, shares of IndusInd Bank rose 2% after Bank of America raised its recommendation for the title.

Australia S&P/ASX 200 rose 1% to around 7030, its highest level in two weeks, led by gains in mining and energy stocks and firmer commodity prices. The sentiment was also boosted by reports that First Citizens BankShares agreed to buy a majority stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while a CNBC report that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to banking giants had slowed. The top gainers in the mining and energy sector were Pilbara Minerals (11.5%), Mineral Resources (6.1%), Allkem (11%), BHP Billiton (1.5%) and Woodside Energy (3.7%). Lion City Resources also jumped 50 percent after it rejected a $2.50-a-share takeover offer from lithium producer Albemarle Plc, which valued the company at $5.5 billion. Financials also gained, including Macquarie Group (1.8%), CBA (0.9%), ANZ Banking Group (0.9%), Westpac (0.9%), and National Australia Bank (1.1%).

New Zealand shares were up 58 points, or 0.5%, at 11,671 around midday on Tuesday, up from the previous session, as fears of financial sector contagion rose after U.S.-based First Citizens BancShares struck a deal to buy failed Silicon Valley Bank. alleviated. Moreover, traders appear confident that the U.S. government has the ability to back uninsured deposits if necessary. Financial firms led gains on Wall Street on Monday, while energy producers also rose. In Australia, stocks were flat after losses in the previous two sessions amid reports the government would not allow regulators to wipe out holders of AT1-rated credit the way Credit Suisse did. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday that China's "strong rebound" was important not just for itself but for the world. Aofrio Ltd. rose 4.7 percent, joining Arvida Group (4.3 percent), Blis Technologies (3.9 percent), Mercury NZ Ltd. (2.5 percent), and Heartland Group (2 percent).

Brazil's Ibovespa stock index rose 1% to clear the 100,600 mark on Tuesday, buoyed by retail giants, energy companies, and banks as investors digested minutes from the latest central bank meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee stressed that it will take "calmness and patience" for inflation to fall due to worsening consumer inflation expectations, stressing that the bank sees no rush to cut rates. However, Raizen, Brakem, CPFL Energia, and Eletrobras all jumped more than 3% to set the pace of earnings for the energy sector.At the same time, Magazine Luiza and Via Varejo were up 3.4% and 3.2% to carry retail companies.

 

REVIEWING THE LAST ECONOMIC DATA:

Reviewing the latest economic  news, the most critical data is:

- US: In March 2023, the Dallas Fed's index of general business activity for the Texas services sector fell 8.7 points to a three-month low of -18.0, suggesting that as uncertainty mounts, confidence in broader business conditions has increased. Perceptions deteriorated further. The Corporate Outlook Index also fell 9.6 points to -11.1, while the Outlook Uncertainty Index rose 9.9 points to 22.8, above the series average of 13.5. In contrast, the income index, a key measure of the state of the country's services sector, edged down more than a point to 5.5, pointing to a slight slowdown in activity growth, while labor market indicators showed employment was largely flat and the workweek contracted slightly. On the price front, inflationary pressures eased, while wage pressures remained elevated. The input price index fell 2.3 points to 38.3 and the sales price index fell 8.4 points to 11.4. The wages and benefits index edged up to 19.8, still above the 15.7 average.

- US: In March 2023, the Fifth Region's Index of Service Industry Activity Receipts fell to -17 from -3 in February, the lowest level since June 2020. Also, the demand index fell to -1 in March from 6 in February. Income expectations improved slightly, while the demand expectations index remained upbeat but fell slightly. Both current and expected local business conditions indices were negative. The employment index was 1 in March, continuing its steady decline this year. Companies continue to report wage increases and struggle to find workers. However, the availability of skill indices has been improving. Over the next six months, companies expect to continue hiring and raising wages, while also expecting their ability to find employees with the necessary skills to improve. Average increases in prices paid and prices received remained relatively unchanged in March, and companies generally expect both to slow in the year ahead.

- US: An index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond area rose to -5 in March 2023 from -16 in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in business conditions. Of its three component indices, shipments changed the most (from -15 in February to 2 in March), employment (-5 to -7) and new orders (-11 to -24) both moved higher. improved, but still in negative territory. Companies continued to report easing supply chain constraints as the backlog and lead time indices remained negative. The average growth rate of prices paid declined moderately in March, while the average growth rate of prices received was little changed. Enterprises are still pessimistic about local business conditions, and the future local business conditions index fell slightly.

- US: The average price of a single-family home insured by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States rose 0.2% in January 2023 from the previous month, up from 0.1% in the previous two months. Across the nine census divisions, monthly home price changes ranged from -0.6% in the Pacific to +2.0% in New England. Home prices rose 5.3% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2020. The 12-month change is -1.5% in the Pacific and +9.6% in the South Atlantic. "U.S. home prices changed slightly in January, continuing the trend of the past few months," said Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, a supervisory economist at FHFA's Research and Statistics Division. "This month's HPI build is based on many January settlements, reflecting rate lock-in after mortgage rates fell from their early-November peak. Inventory of homes available for sale remains low."

- US: An advance estimate showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened slightly to $91.63 billion in February 2023 from a revised $91.09 billion last month, as global demand weakened due to higher living costs and higher borrowing costs. Exports fell 3.8%, due to lower sales of automobiles (-11.9%), consumer goods (-4.6%), industrial supplies (-4.2%) and capital goods (-2.5%). Imports, meanwhile, fell 2.3 percent on lower purchases of motor vehicles (-7.1 percent), consumer goods (-5.6 percent) and food, feed and beverages (-3.4 percent).

- US: Preliminary estimates show that U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.2% month-on-month in February 2023, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in January. Durable goods inventories rose 0.6% after falling 0.2%, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.4% after falling 1.1% in January. Wholesale inventories were up 12.2% compared to a year earlier.

- IT: Italian manufacturing confidence rose to 104.2 in March 2023 from 103 in the previous month, the highest since July 2022. Confidence in the future of new orders (6.4 to 4 in February), production (8.6 to 5.7) and employment levels (5.7 to 5.2) increased, while expectations for overall economic conditions (-9.3 to -14.2) were pessimistic Emotions eased. Meanwhile, the current assessment of the level of new orders improved slightly (-7.5 to -7.8), while production levels deteriorated (-11.5 to -11.1).

- FR: In March 2023, the French manufacturing climate indicator fell to 104 from 105 in the previous month, but it was still higher than the market forecast of 103. Separation of opinions on changes in past production over the past three months decreased (10 to 16), as did disagreement on current levels of inventories of finished goods (13 to 18). Furthermore, expectations for production volumes deteriorated (11 to 14), while selling prices were stable (29). On the other hand, business sentiment was improved by manufacturers' views on the expected size of work (15 to 12) and overall orders (-12 to -14), as well as foreign orders (-8 to -10). Overall, economic uncertainty surged (34 vs. 32).

- AU: Flash data showed that Australian retail sales rose 0.2% year-on-year to A$35.14 billion in February 2023, beating market expectations for a 0.1% rise but slowing from a slightly revised 1.8% growth the previous month. The latest figures underscore that retail turnover has leveled off after a period of heightened volatility in November, December, and January. Among food-related industries, spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway services rose 0.5%, while food retailing rose 0.2%. Among the non-food sectors, department stores rose 1.0 percent and apparel and footwear rose 0.6 percent. Another retailing was the only sector to decline, falling 0.4%, while household goods retailing was unchanged. Sales rose modestly in most states and territories, by no more than 1.0 percent. Queensland recorded the only decline in turnover, down 0.4 percent.

 

LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors should watch out for the following important data:

- CHF: Credit Suisse Economic ExpectationsSNB Quarterly Bulletin.

- AUD: CPI y/y.

- CNY: CB Leading Index m/m.

- CAD: Gov Council Member Gravelle Speaks.

- EUR: German GfK Consumer Climate.

- GBP: M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending to Individuals m/m, FPC Meeting Minutes, FPC Statement, and MPC Member Mann Speaks.

- USD: Pending Home Sales m/m, FOMC Member Barr Speaks, and Crude Oil Inventories.

 

KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

Кey factors in the stock and bond market are currently:

- US: Stock futures contracts linked to the three major indexes fluctuated between modest gains and losses on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious about the health of the U.S. economy despite recent moves by regulators and authorities to ease concerns about the banking system. Despite the FSOC's statement that the U.S. banking system is resilient and First Citizens BancShares' failed deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank, the recent collapse of two regional banks has raised fears of a recession and broader contagion. First Citizens shares were flat in premarket trading after surging more than 50 percent on Monday. In other corporate news, Alibaba Group Holding plans to split its business into six key divisions covering e-commerce, media and cloud computing. Alibaba's U.S.-listed shares soared nearly 10 percent in premarket trading.

- US: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, seen as a gauge of global borrowing costs, topped 3.5% compositely, as investors paused to reassess the outlook for monetary policy while weighing the risk of a recession following the recent turmoil in the banking sector. A report this week on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will provide further clues on the central bank's next move. So far, signs of continued price growth and a tight labor market have fueled speculation that the Fed's rate-hiking cycle isn't over yet. Money market bets are now evenly split between a 25 basis point rate hike and a pause during the regulator's policy meeting in May. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari was among the first to warn that recent stress in the financial sector and the possibility of a subsequent credit crunch has pushed the world's largest economy closer to recession. one of the decision-makers.

- CA: Canadian 10-year government bond yields were near 2.9%, bouncing off March lows of about 2.6% as markets calmed down after recent global banking turmoil. In the latest development, First Citizens Bancshares negotiated with federal regulators to acquire a majority stake in Silicon Valley Bank, helping to ease some financial contagion concerns. Domestically, the Bank of Canada said it would keep its key interest rate on hold if the Canadian economy develops as expected. The central bank paused its 4.5 percent rate hike cycle at its March meeting after raising rates by 425 basis points over the past eight sessions. Policymakers pointed to weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, emphasizing the need to support growth.

 

LEADING MARKET SECTORS:

- Strong sectors: Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials.

- Weak sectors: Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate.

 

TOP CURRENCY & COMMODITIES MARKET DRIVERS: 

Кey factors in the currency and commodities market are currently:

- GBP: Sterling climbed back above $1.23, not far from a seven-week high of $1.234 hit on March 23, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday further monetary tightening would be needed if persistent inflationary pressures were evident. He also said there was "significant stress" in the global banking sector, but added that UK banks were resilient and able to support the economy. Last week, the BoE raised its key bank rate for the 11th straight time to 4.25% and left the door open for further hikes as inflation persists. Recent data showed that UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 10.4% in February, well above the bank's 2% target. In the U.S., the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 percentage points this year, and markets have priced in a nearly 90 percent chance the Fed will keep rates on hold in May and expect a rate cut in July.

- EUR: The euro bounced back above $1.08, nearing a seven-week high of $1.0929 hit last Wednesday, after news on Monday that U.S. regional bank First Citizens BancShares bought all of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans amid fears of global banking turmoil and recession eased. Meanwhile, investors were awaiting key euro zone inflation data due on Friday. The euro is likely to continue to appreciate against the dollar as the policy divergence between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is set to widen. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank is determined to bring inflation back to target and there will be no "trade-offs" involved, while board member Isabel Schnabel said the ECB could find new ways to manage liquidity in the banking sector and Short-term interest rates that guide the market.On the other hand, the market sees a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in May and cut rates in July.

- AUD: The Australian dollar rose to $0.67 as positive news surrounding the financial sector raised hopes that the worst recent banking turmoil may be over, boosting riskier assets. Traders also digested data showing Australia's retail sales rose more than expected in February, although at a sharp slowdown compared with the previous month. Still, the Australian dollar remained near multi-month lows as the Reserve Bank of Australia said in the minutes of its latest policy meeting that it would reconsider pausing its April adjustment to reassess the economic outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting, raising the cash rate for the 10th consecutive session, taking borrowing costs to a near 11-year high of 3.6%.

- USD: The U.S. dollar index fell to 102.5 on Tuesday, falling for a second straight session, as concerns over recent turmoil in the banking sector began to fade, hurting demand for safe-haven currencies. Investors welcomed a report that First Citizens Bank AG agreed to buy a large stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while CBN reported that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to the banking giant has slowed. U.S. authorities also aimed to boost confidence by considering expanding emergency lending facilities and reassuring markets that the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." Last week, the Fed announced a widely expected 25 basis point hike and signaled only one more hike. Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials do not wish to cut rates in 2023 and are prepared to extend the tightening cycle if necessary. All eyes now turn to a key measure of U.S. inflation and several speeches from Fed officials this week.

- GLD: Gold prices pared early losses on Tuesday to clear above the $1,960 handle, narrowing the 1% drop in the previous session as the dollar weakened and investors continued to monitor risks to the sector of global banking. An investigation into tax fraud and money laundering has found major French banks are under suspicion of dividend cutbacks, adding to a crisis of confidence in the European banking sector and rising demand for safe-haven precious metals. The shutdown of major US lenders and the collapse of Credit Suisse earlier in the month prompted investors to pile up safe-haven assets, sending gold prices soaring to a one-year high by more than $2,000.Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve also supported bullion prices. At its last meeting, the FOMC forecast a quarter-point hike remaining in its hike campaign.

- OIL: On Tuesday, Brent crude futures were steady at around $79 a barrel as investors continued to balance supply and demand prospects. OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel is expected to keep supplies stable for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently overshadowed by turmoil in the banking sector. At the same time, sanctions on Russia have created supply uncertainty. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to so-called "friendly" countries, noting that supplies to India have jumped to levels not seen in more than two decades. Meanwhile, a legal dispute with Iraq has stalled some 450,000 barrels a day of oil exports from Turkey's Ceyhan port, tightening global markets. More forward-looking signals from the markets are optimistic, with China"

- NIC: Nickel futures traded around $23,000 a ton, not far from the five-month low of $22,000 reached on March 22, pressured by surging global production and concerns over persistently weak demand. The latest data from the International Nickel Study Group showed a massive 22% year-on-year increase in global nickel production in January, driven by continued increases in Indonesian production. The agency also noted that, at the current rate, the production of mined nickel is expected to exceed 3.2 million tonnes annually. Indonesian production grew nearly 50% year-on-year to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022, accounting for nearly 50% of global supply, pushing the global nickel market into surplus last year. On the demand side, as China is reopening and several processors are ramping up production.

- SLV: Silver futures fell to $22.9 an ounce from a nearly two-month high of $23.2 hit on March 27 as economists guaranteed stability to major US and European lenders, easing demand for the safe-haven asset in bars. However, a dovish Federal Reserve and limited inventories of the precious metal have provided a 10% upturn since the beginning of the month. The Fed signaled a final quarter-point increase in interest rates in its tightening cycle, underscoring the FOMC's caution amid recent tensions in the US financial sector. On the supply side, continued outflows from bullion inventories supported bullion prices, fueling concerns about silver shortages.

 

CHART OF THE DAY:

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.5% to $0.6229 on Tuesday, gaining for a third straight day, as investors favored riskier assets after U.S. authorities backed First Citizens BancShares' deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank. In addition, there are growing hopes that the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise the 4.75% cash rate by 0.25 percentage points when it meets in April. New Zealand's annual inflation rate is now near a 30-year high of 7.2%, well above the central bank's medium-term target of 1%-3%. Governor Adrian Orr recently mentioned that inflation is expected to hit 7.3% in the first quarter of 2023 before it begins to ease. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to expect the cash rate to peak at 5.5% this year

 

 

Long-term Channels Trading Strategy for:( New Zealand dollar ).Time frame (D1). The primary resistance with a potential (target area) is around (0.63978). The primary support with a potential  (consolidation area) is around (0,60755). Therefore, the next most probable price movement is an (up) trend. (*see all other details on the chart).

GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW, ANALYSIS & FORECASTS: Author: Dr. Alexander APOSTOLOV (researcher at Economic Research Institute at BAS) European shares closed little changed on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 closing below 445 points after rising 1% in the previous session, while Germany's DAX gained 0.1% to close at 15,142. The Stoxx bank index recovered from losses earlier in the day to rise 0.6 percent, with Credit Suisse and UBS up 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. Deutsche Bank shares, on the other hand, fell more than 1% after reports that French authorities raided the offices of several major lenders, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, on suspicion of money laundering and fiscal fraud. Meanwhile, the real estate sector was under intense pressure, falling 2.7%. Yesterday, Citigroup warned that European real estate shares could fall by 50% as the sector faces higher debt-servicing costs and property valuations plummet. On the other hand, the energy sector rose nearly 2 percent, and the mining sector gained 1.5 percent. The CAC 40 ended choppy on Tuesday, inching up well off its session highs, after authorities raided major French banks amid an investigation into tax fraud and money laundering, amplifying confidence concerns at major European lenders. Société Générale closed down nearly 1 percent, while BNP Paribas pared losses at midday to close 0.4 percent higher. Energy producers, on the other hand, experienced an average growth rate of more than 2%. Meanwhile, protests against pension reforms continued, with strikes entering their 10th day on Tuesday, disrupting public transport and deliveries. On the data front, French business confidence fell slightly in March but remained above market forecasts. The FTSE MIB closed 0.4% higher in a volatile session on Tuesday, as upbeat corporate news shook investors off fresh worries about Europe's banking sector. French authorities raided five banks on Tuesday, including Societe Generale and BNP Paribas, as part of an investigation into alleged tax fraud and money laundering linked to dividend payments. Still, banks posted strong gains, with UniCredit up 4.4 percent after the European Central Bank approved a 3.3 billion-euro share buyback. Elsewhere, Telecom Italia rose 2.5 percent after Bloomberg News reported that Italy's state-backed banks were making a higher bid for the company's landline network. On the data front, indicators of business and consumer confidence in Italy improved in March to their highest levels since July 2022 and February, respectively, both of which topped market expectations. The IBEX 35 trimmed some of its morning gains to close at 8944 on Tuesday, trailing its European peers, as the market digested the latest banking sector news. The offices of several major French lenders, including Société Générale, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, were raided today by the country's authorities as part of a tax fraud investigation. However, the financial sector posted modest gains of around 1%. Also, the index was lifted by Repsol (2.01%), which enjoyed some respite in the heat of Brent oil revaluation. Other companies to advance include IAG (1.92%) and Cellnex Tel (1.63%). The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed just above a flat line at 2,440 on Tuesday, up 2 percent from the previous session, as investors continued to assess the outlook for the Russian economy as it readjusts to activity following the fallout from Western sanctions. Bank stocks led gains, buoyed by industry optimism and looming dividends. Moscow's financial sector has grown by more than 20 percent so far this year, underscoring the disconnect between Russia's financial markets and the external backdrop as Western sanctions shield Russian banks from the risk of contagion from jitters among global lenders. On the other hand, mining and energy companies posted losses. London shares rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in the heavyweight energy and materials sectors, with the benchmark FTSE 100 closing just below 7,500. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK financial system is resilient, with strong capital and liquidity conditions and the ability to support the economy. Still, Bailey noted that rates may have to rise if there are signs that inflationary pressures persist. Meanwhile, much of the rally lost momentum following the day's tax raids on several French banks. Among individual stocks, oil giant BP rose 2.5 percent to lead the FTSE 100's gains, while miners Glencore and Rio Tinto were the biggest gainers, rising around 2.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. The blue-chip Dow traded near flatline Tuesday morning, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, even as recent actions by regulators and authorities helped ease concerns about the banking system. But investors remain cautious about the health of the U.S. economy. Despite the FSOC's assertion that the U.S. banking system is resilient and First Citizens BancShares' failed deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank, the recent collapse of two regional U.S. banks has raised fears of a recession and wider contagion. Shares of First Citizens Bank were nearly flat after surging more than 50 percent on Monday. In other corporate news, Alibaba Group Holding plans to split its business into six key divisions covering e-commerce, media, and cloud computing. Alibaba's U.S.-listed shares jumped nearly 10% following the news. Canada S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% on Monday around 19,620, boosted by energy and banking stocks after First Citizen's takeover of Silicon Valley Bank inspired some confidence in the North American banking sector. The financial sector rose 0.7 percent, led by heavyweights TD Bank and BMO Bank, which rose 1.9 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. The energy sector also rose, rising 2.1 percent, led by gains in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, unlike their Wall Street counterparts, base metals stocks in Toronto edged up 0.2 percent, while technology stocks rose 0.6 percent. Tomorrow, investors' eyes will be on the announcement of Canada's federal budget. The Hongkong Hang Seng Index rose 216.96 points, or 1.11%, to close at 19,784.65 on Tuesday, reversing losses in the previous two sessions, as peer First Citizens BancShares Inc. and officials from the Treasury Department to the Federal Reserve said they still think U.S. banks The system is sound and safe. On the mainland, Premier Li Qiang told Apple CEO Tim Cook and other foreign business executives that China would open up further. Financials led the gains, rising more than 1%, while consumer, technology, and real estate stocks also posted notable gains. Picc Property shares rose 10.2 percent, while Tencent Hlds shares rose 10.2 percent. Sinopharm shares rose 4.2 percent each. Other gainers included Li Auto (3.4%), China Resources Land (2.8%) and Meituan (2.1%). Investors are now awaiting data on Chinese manufacturing and service sector activity for March this week. They also expect a U.S. inflation report and several speeches from Fed officials. The China Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% to close at 3,248 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.3% to close at 11,610 points, dragged down by profit-taking in high-tech stocks after similar moves on Wall Street overnight. Meanwhile, mainland stocks avoided further losses as concerns over recent banking turmoil eased. Investors welcomed a report that First Citizens Bank AG agreed to buy a large stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while CBN reported that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to the banking giant has slowed. The top losers in the technology sector were 360 Security Technology (-6.4%), Inspur Electronics (-6.8%), Hithink RoyalFlush (-3.7%), East Money Information (-3.3%), and Kunlun Technology (-6.2%). Japan Nikkei 225 rose 0.25% to 27,546 and the Topix added 0.5% to 1,972, rising to a two-week high for a second straight session as fears of broader banking contagion eased. alleviated. U.S. financial stocks rallied on a report that First Citizens Bank AG agreed to buy a majority stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while Consumer News & Business reported that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to banking giants had slowed. Bank of Japan led the gains with Mitsubishi UFJ (1.8%), Sumitomo Mitsui (1.5%) and Mizuho Financial (1.6%) gaining strongly. Other index heavyweights also gained, including Keyence (1%), Toyota Motor (0.6%), Nippon Steel (0.6%), Kawasaki Kisen (0.9%), KDDI Corp (1.2%), and Inpex Corp (3.5%). The India BSE Sensex erased early gains to close just below the flat line of 57,615 on Tuesday, close enough to a five-month low touched last week, as investors continued to show caution over challenges in the banking sector and the Adani Group scandal manner. Shares exposed to Adani Group and its corporate debt took a fresh hit after reports that the group was trying to renegotiate the terms of outstanding loans worth $4 billion. State Bank of India and Axis Bank both fell more than 0.5 percent, wiping out yesterday's rebound. On the other hand, shares of IndusInd Bank rose 2% after Bank of America raised its recommendation for the title. Australia S&P/ASX 200 rose 1% to around 7030, its highest level in two weeks, led by gains in mining and energy stocks and firmer commodity prices. The sentiment was also boosted by reports that First Citizens BankShares agreed to buy a majority stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while a CNBC report that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to banking giants had slowed. The top gainers in the mining and energy sector were Pilbara Minerals (11.5%), Mineral Resources (6.1%), Allkem (11%), BHP Billiton (1.5%) and Woodside Energy (3.7%). Lion City Resources also jumped 50 percent after it rejected a $2.50-a-share takeover offer from lithium producer Albemarle Plc, which valued the company at $5.5 billion. Financials also gained, including Macquarie Group (1.8%), CBA (0.9%), ANZ Banking Group (0.9%), Westpac (0.9%), and National Australia Bank (1.1%). New Zealand shares were up 58 points, or 0.5%, at 11,671 around midday on Tuesday, up from the previous session, as fears of financial sector contagion rose after U.S.-based First Citizens BancShares struck a deal to buy failed Silicon Valley Bank. alleviated. Moreover, traders appear confident that the U.S. government has the ability to back uninsured deposits if necessary. Financial firms led gains on Wall Street on Monday, while energy producers also rose. In Australia, stocks were flat after losses in the previous two sessions amid reports the government would not allow regulators to wipe out holders of AT1-rated credit the way Credit Suisse did. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday that China's "strong rebound" was important not just for itself but for the world. Aofrio Ltd. rose 4.7 percent, joining Arvida Group (4.3 percent), Blis Technologies (3.9 percent), Mercury NZ Ltd. (2.5 percent), and Heartland Group (2 percent). Brazil's Ibovespa stock index rose 1% to clear the 100,600 mark on Tuesday, buoyed by retail giants, energy companies, and banks as investors digested minutes from the latest central bank meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee stressed that it will take "calmness and patience" for inflation to fall due to worsening consumer inflation expectations, stressing that the bank sees no rush to cut rates. However, Raizen, Brakem, CPFL Energia, and Eletrobras all jumped more than 3% to set the pace of earnings for the energy sector.At the same time, Magazine Luiza and Via Varejo were up 3.4% and 3.2% to carry retail companies.   REVIEWING THE LAST ECONOMIC DATA: Reviewing the latest economic  news, the most critical data is: - US: In March 2023, the Dallas Fed's index of general business activity for the Texas services sector fell 8.7 points to a three-month low of -18.0, suggesting that as uncertainty mounts, confidence in broader business conditions has increased. Perceptions deteriorated further. The Corporate Outlook Index also fell 9.6 points to -11.1, while the Outlook Uncertainty Index rose 9.9 points to 22.8, above the series average of 13.5. In contrast, the income index, a key measure of the state of the country's services sector, edged down more than a point to 5.5, pointing to a slight slowdown in activity growth, while labor market indicators showed employment was largely flat and the workweek contracted slightly. On the price front, inflationary pressures eased, while wage pressures remained elevated. The input price index fell 2.3 points to 38.3 and the sales price index fell 8.4 points to 11.4. The wages and benefits index edged up to 19.8, still above the 15.7 average. - US: In March 2023, the Fifth Region's Index of Service Industry Activity Receipts fell to -17 from -3 in February, the lowest level since June 2020. Also, the demand index fell to -1 in March from 6 in February. Income expectations improved slightly, while the demand expectations index remained upbeat but fell slightly. Both current and expected local business conditions indices were negative. The employment index was 1 in March, continuing its steady decline this year. Companies continue to report wage increases and struggle to find workers. However, the availability of skill indices has been improving. Over the next six months, companies expect to continue hiring and raising wages, while also expecting their ability to find employees with the necessary skills to improve. Average increases in prices paid and prices received remained relatively unchanged in March, and companies generally expect both to slow in the year ahead. - US: An index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond area rose to -5 in March 2023 from -16 in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in business conditions. Of its three component indices, shipments changed the most (from -15 in February to 2 in March), employment (-5 to -7) and new orders (-11 to -24) both moved higher. improved, but still in negative territory. Companies continued to report easing supply chain constraints as the backlog and lead time indices remained negative. The average growth rate of prices paid declined moderately in March, while the average growth rate of prices received was little changed. Enterprises are still pessimistic about local business conditions, and the future local business conditions index fell slightly. - US: The average price of a single-family home insured by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States rose 0.2% in January 2023 from the previous month, up from 0.1% in the previous two months. Across the nine census divisions, monthly home price changes ranged from -0.6% in the Pacific to +2.0% in New England. Home prices rose 5.3% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2020. The 12-month change is -1.5% in the Pacific and +9.6% in the South Atlantic. "U.S. home prices changed slightly in January, continuing the trend of the past few months," said Dr. Nataliya Polkovnichenko, a supervisory economist at FHFA's Research and Statistics Division. "This month's HPI build is based on many January settlements, reflecting rate lock-in after mortgage rates fell from their early-November peak. Inventory of homes available for sale remains low." - US: An advance estimate showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened slightly to $91.63 billion in February 2023 from a revised $91.09 billion last month, as global demand weakened due to higher living costs and higher borrowing costs. Exports fell 3.8%, due to lower sales of automobiles (-11.9%), consumer goods (-4.6%), industrial supplies (-4.2%) and capital goods (-2.5%). Imports, meanwhile, fell 2.3 percent on lower purchases of motor vehicles (-7.1 percent), consumer goods (-5.6 percent) and food, feed and beverages (-3.4 percent). - US: Preliminary estimates show that U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.2% month-on-month in February 2023, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in January. Durable goods inventories rose 0.6% after falling 0.2%, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.4% after falling 1.1% in January. Wholesale inventories were up 12.2% compared to a year earlier. - IT: Italian manufacturing confidence rose to 104.2 in March 2023 from 103 in the previous month, the highest since July 2022. Confidence in the future of new orders (6.4 to 4 in February), production (8.6 to 5.7) and employment levels (5.7 to 5.2) increased, while expectations for overall economic conditions (-9.3 to -14.2) were pessimistic Emotions eased. Meanwhile, the current assessment of the level of new orders improved slightly (-7.5 to -7.8), while production levels deteriorated (-11.5 to -11.1). - FR: In March 2023, the French manufacturing climate indicator fell to 104 from 105 in the previous month, but it was still higher than the market forecast of 103. Separation of opinions on changes in past production over the past three months decreased (10 to 16), as did disagreement on current levels of inventories of finished goods (13 to 18). Furthermore, expectations for production volumes deteriorated (11 to 14), while selling prices were stable (29). On the other hand, business sentiment was improved by manufacturers' views on the expected size of work (15 to 12) and overall orders (-12 to -14), as well as foreign orders (-8 to -10). Overall, economic uncertainty surged (34 vs. 32). - AU: Flash data showed that Australian retail sales rose 0.2% year-on-year to A$35.14 billion in February 2023, beating market expectations for a 0.1% rise but slowing from a slightly revised 1.8% growth the previous month. The latest figures underscore that retail turnover has leveled off after a period of heightened volatility in November, December, and January. Among food-related industries, spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway services rose 0.5%, while food retailing rose 0.2%. Among the non-food sectors, department stores rose 1.0 percent and apparel and footwear rose 0.6 percent. Another retailing was the only sector to decline, falling 0.4%, while household goods retailing was unchanged. Sales rose modestly in most states and territories, by no more than 1.0 percent. Queensland recorded the only decline in turnover, down 0.4 percent.   LOOKING AHEAD: Today, investors should watch out for the following important data: - CHF: Credit Suisse Economic ExpectationsSNB Quarterly Bulletin. - AUD: CPI y/y. - CNY: CB Leading Index m/m. - CAD: Gov Council Member Gravelle Speaks. - EUR: German GfK Consumer Climate. - GBP: M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending to Individuals m/m, FPC Meeting Minutes, FPC Statement, and MPC Member Mann Speaks. - USD: Pending Home Sales m/m, FOMC Member Barr Speaks, and Crude Oil Inventories.   KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS: Кey factors in the stock and bond market are currently: - US: Stock futures contracts linked to the three major indexes fluctuated between modest gains and losses on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious about the health of the U.S. economy despite recent moves by regulators and authorities to ease concerns about the banking system. Despite the FSOC's statement that the U.S. banking system is resilient and First Citizens BancShares' failed deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank, the recent collapse of two regional banks has raised fears of a recession and broader contagion. First Citizens shares were flat in premarket trading after surging more than 50 percent on Monday. In other corporate news, Alibaba Group Holding plans to split its business into six key divisions covering e-commerce, media and cloud computing. Alibaba's U.S.-listed shares soared nearly 10 percent in premarket trading. - US: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, seen as a gauge of global borrowing costs, topped 3.5% compositely, as investors paused to reassess the outlook for monetary policy while weighing the risk of a recession following the recent turmoil in the banking sector. A report this week on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will provide further clues on the central bank's next move. So far, signs of continued price growth and a tight labor market have fueled speculation that the Fed's rate-hiking cycle isn't over yet. Money market bets are now evenly split between a 25 basis point rate hike and a pause during the regulator's policy meeting in May. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari was among the first to warn that recent stress in the financial sector and the possibility of a subsequent credit crunch has pushed the world's largest economy closer to recession. one of the decision-makers. - CA: Canadian 10-year government bond yields were near 2.9%, bouncing off March lows of about 2.6% as markets calmed down after recent global banking turmoil. In the latest development, First Citizens Bancshares negotiated with federal regulators to acquire a majority stake in Silicon Valley Bank, helping to ease some financial contagion concerns. Domestically, the Bank of Canada said it would keep its key interest rate on hold if the Canadian economy develops as expected. The central bank paused its 4.5 percent rate hike cycle at its March meeting after raising rates by 425 basis points over the past eight sessions. Policymakers pointed to weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, emphasizing the need to support growth.   LEADING MARKET SECTORS: - Strong sectors: Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials. - Weak sectors: Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate.   TOP CURRENCY & COMMODITIES MARKET DRIVERS:  Кey factors in the currency and commodities market are currently: - GBP: Sterling climbed back above $1.23, not far from a seven-week high of $1.234 hit on March 23, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday further monetary tightening would be needed if persistent inflationary pressures were evident. He also said there was "significant stress" in the global banking sector, but added that UK banks were resilient and able to support the economy. Last week, the BoE raised its key bank rate for the 11th straight time to 4.25% and left the door open for further hikes as inflation persists. Recent data showed that UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 10.4% in February, well above the bank's 2% target. In the U.S., the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 percentage points this year, and markets have priced in a nearly 90 percent chance the Fed will keep rates on hold in May and expect a rate cut in July. - EUR: The euro bounced back above $1.08, nearing a seven-week high of $1.0929 hit last Wednesday, after news on Monday that U.S. regional bank First Citizens BancShares bought all of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans amid fears of global banking turmoil and recession eased. Meanwhile, investors were awaiting key euro zone inflation data due on Friday. The euro is likely to continue to appreciate against the dollar as the policy divergence between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is set to widen. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank is determined to bring inflation back to target and there will be no "trade-offs" involved, while board member Isabel Schnabel said the ECB could find new ways to manage liquidity in the banking sector and Short-term interest rates that guide the market.On the other hand, the market sees a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in May and cut rates in July. - AUD: The Australian dollar rose to $0.67 as positive news surrounding the financial sector raised hopes that the worst recent banking turmoil may be over, boosting riskier assets. Traders also digested data showing Australia's retail sales rose more than expected in February, although at a sharp slowdown compared with the previous month. Still, the Australian dollar remained near multi-month lows as the Reserve Bank of Australia said in the minutes of its latest policy meeting that it would reconsider pausing its April adjustment to reassess the economic outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting, raising the cash rate for the 10th consecutive session, taking borrowing costs to a near 11-year high of 3.6%. - USD: The U.S. dollar index fell to 102.5 on Tuesday, falling for a second straight session, as concerns over recent turmoil in the banking sector began to fade, hurting demand for safe-haven currencies. Investors welcomed a report that First Citizens Bank AG agreed to buy a large stake in Silicon Valley Bank, while CBN reported that the outflow of funds from smaller institutions to the banking giant has slowed. U.S. authorities also aimed to boost confidence by considering expanding emergency lending facilities and reassuring markets that the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." Last week, the Fed announced a widely expected 25 basis point hike and signaled only one more hike. Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials do not wish to cut rates in 2023 and are prepared to extend the tightening cycle if necessary. All eyes now turn to a key measure of U.S. inflation and several speeches from Fed officials this week. - GLD: Gold prices pared early losses on Tuesday to clear above the $1,960 handle, narrowing the 1% drop in the previous session as the dollar weakened and investors continued to monitor risks to the sector of global banking. An investigation into tax fraud and money laundering has found major French banks are under suspicion of dividend cutbacks, adding to a crisis of confidence in the European banking sector and rising demand for safe-haven precious metals. The shutdown of major US lenders and the collapse of Credit Suisse earlier in the month prompted investors to pile up safe-haven assets, sending gold prices soaring to a one-year high by more than $2,000.Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve also supported bullion prices. At its last meeting, the FOMC forecast a quarter-point hike remaining in its hike campaign. - OIL: On Tuesday, Brent crude futures were steady at around $79 a barrel as investors continued to balance supply and demand prospects. OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel is expected to keep supplies stable for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently overshadowed by turmoil in the banking sector. At the same time, sanctions on Russia have created supply uncertainty. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to so-called "friendly" countries, noting that supplies to India have jumped to levels not seen in more than two decades. Meanwhile, a legal dispute with Iraq has stalled some 450,000 barrels a day of oil exports from Turkey's Ceyhan port, tightening global markets. More forward-looking signals from the markets are optimistic, with China" - NIC: Nickel futures traded around $23,000 a ton, not far from the five-month low of $22,000 reached on March 22, pressured by surging global production and concerns over persistently weak demand. The latest data from the International Nickel Study Group showed a massive 22% year-on-year increase in global nickel production in January, driven by continued increases in Indonesian production. The agency also noted that, at the current rate, the production of mined nickel is expected to exceed 3.2 million tonnes annually. Indonesian production grew nearly 50% year-on-year to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022, accounting for nearly 50% of global supply, pushing the global nickel market into surplus last year. On the demand side, as China is reopening and several processors are ramping up production. - SLV: Silver futures fell to $22.9 an ounce from a nearly two-month high of $23.2 hit on March 27 as economists guaranteed stability to major US and European lenders, easing demand for the safe-haven asset in bars. However, a dovish Federal Reserve and limited inventories of the precious metal have provided a 10% upturn since the beginning of the month. The Fed signaled a final quarter-point increase in interest rates in its tightening cycle, underscoring the FOMC's caution amid recent tensions in the US financial sector. On the supply side, continued outflows from bullion inventories supported bullion prices, fueling concerns about silver shortages.   CHART OF THE DAY: The New Zealand dollar rose 0.5% to $0.6229 on Tuesday, gaining for a third straight day, as investors favored riskier assets after U.S. authorities backed First Citizens BancShares' deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank. In addition, there are growing hopes that the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise the 4.75% cash rate by 0.25 percentage points when it meets in April. New Zealand's annual inflation rate is now near a 30-year high of 7.2%, well above the central bank's medium-term target of 1%-3%. Governor Adrian Orr recently mentioned that inflation is expected to hit 7.3% in the first quarter of 2023 before it begins to ease. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to expect the cash rate to peak at 5.5% this year     Long-term Channels Trading Strategy for:( New Zealand dollar ).Time frame (D1). The primary resistance with a potential (target area) is around (0.63978). The primary support with a potential  (consolidation area) is around (0,60755). Therefore, the next most probable price movement is an (up) trend. (*see all other details on the chart).