UK Manufacturing PMI at 23-Month Low
The S&P/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI fell to a 23-month low 53.4 in June of 2022 from 54.6 in May, missing market expectations of 53.7. Output growth slowed the most since February of 2021 amid weaker demand and significant supply issues. To add, new order volumes were slightly lower, pointing to the weakest performance in two years with stronger declines in export orders. On the other hand, staffing numbers were seen higher among UK manufacturers. On the price front, input inflation was pushed up by higher energy costs and raw material prices, although the overall gauge eased to a four-month low. Looking forward, inflation concerns and impending cutbacks to spending pressured business confidence to its lowest since the start of the pandemic.
UK Private Sector Growth Unchanged at 15-Month Low
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI was at 53.1 in June 2022, unchanged from the 15-month low seen in May and above market expectations of 52.6, flash estimates showed. Resilient business activity trends were seen across the service economy as a whole, but manufacturing production growth eased further to its lowest since February 2021. Demand conditions remained subdued in June, with new order growth slowing for the fourth month running and to a greater extent than seen during May. Worries about customer spending cutbacks and the impact of rapid inflation on the longer-term economic outlook led to another fall in business activity expectations. Optimism at UK private sector companies has declined in each month since February and is now the lowest for just over two years.
Indonesia Held Key Rates Unchanged, as Expected
The Bank of Indonesia kept its key 7-day reverse repurchase rate steady at a record low of 3.5% at the June 23rd, 2022 meeting, in line with market forecasts, saying it was still monitoring growing inflation risks and would adjust monetary policy accordingly. The Governor mentioned that inflation may be slightly above target this year to 4.2% by year-end, adding that authorities had taken measures to contain imported inflationary pressures. He added that roughly IDR 119 trillion have been absorbed from the money supply since the minimum statutory reserve requirement in Rupiah for BUK (Conventional Commercial Banks) was raised to 6% on June 1st. The annual inflation rate rose to 3.55% in May, the highest since December 2017, but still below the central bank target ceiling of 4%. The committee left the overnight deposit facility and lending facility rates unchanged at 2.75% and 4.25%.
Euro Area Composite PMI at 16-Month Low
The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 54.8 in June of 2022 from 51.9 in May, compared with the market consensus of 54. It was the lowest reading since a contraction in February 2021, as new orders for goods and services stagnated for the first time since the demand recovery started in early 2021. Manufacturing expanded the least in 24 months, with output falling for the first time in two years. Meantime, the growth in the services sector slowed sharply amid slower inflows of new business.
Philippine 10Y Bond Yield Hits 3-1/2-year High
Philippine 10 Year Government Bond Yeld increased to a 3-1/2-year high of 7.074%
Madrid Stocks Pare Losses
The Ibex 35 pared early losses of over 1% to trade around 8,117 on Thursday, amid caution due to mounting recession fears as central banks around the world are looking to raise interest rates aggressively to curb soaring inflation. At the same time, weaker-than-expected PMI data for Germany and France added to concerns about the Eurozone's economic outlook. Among single stocks, banks were leading the losses while Iberdrola advanced the most, gaining nearly 4%.
Norway Hikes Interest Rate by More than Expected
The Norges Bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 1.25% in its June 2022 meeting, surpassing market expectations of a 25bps increase. It was the steepest increase since 2002, as the Committee noted that underlying inflation has picked up quickly to levels above projections, while rising wage growth and surging import inflation point to domestic inflation remaining above the target for some time. Policymakers also stated that its future decision will be made while paying close attention to the progress of the Norwegian economy, accelerating the tightening pace should inflation rise further and weaken the krone, or slowing its tightening pace if price growth and capacity fall faster than projected. Still, the policy rate forecast was revised higher from the March 2022 Monetary Policy Report, pointing to a policy rate of around 3% by summer of 2023.
Euro Area Factory Growth Slows to 22-Month Low
The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 52 in June of 2022, from 54.6 in May, the lowest in 22 months and below market expectations of 53.9, flash estimates showed. Output fell for the first time in two years and the rate of decline looks set to accelerate in July given a steepening loss of new orders received during the month. New orders for goods have now fallen for two consecutive months, with June seeing the sharpest decline since May 2020. Jobs growth meanwhile moderated as firms scaled back their future expansion plans due to the harsher demand environment and deteriorating outlook. Looking at prices, rates of selling price inflation cooled while the rate of input cost increase accelerate to the steepest since April, in part reflecting the pass-through of prior raw material and energy cost increases to wages. Manufacturing expectations for the year ahead worsened markedly, down to the lowest since May 2020.
EU Natural Gas Firms on Thursday
European natural gas futures climbed past €130 per megawatt hour, not far from a two-month high of €149 hit on June 16th, as Germany warned that cuts in gas supplies from Russia hampering Europe's attempt to fill the storage before the winter may lead to a collapse in energy markets. Germany has now enacted the second stage of its emergency gas plan, which includes tighter monitoring of the market and the reactivation of coal-fired plants. A week ago Gazprom started curbing a large part of its supplies to Germany and Italy bringing to the total of affected member states to 12. Adding to woes, the region is expected to receive limited imports of US LNG cargoes until late 2022, due to repair works at a key export terminal in Texas after being damaged by an explosion. Also, the TurkStream pipeline has shut for maintenance until the end of the month, while flows from Norway, Europe’s 2nd largest supplier, also dipped due to a compressor failure.
Eurozone Services Activity Growth Slows Sharply
The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in June 2022 from 56.1 in the previous month and compared with the market consensus of 55.5, a preliminary estimate showed. The latest reading showed that inflows of new business rose at a much softer pace, with growth down to the second-lowest level since May 2021. On top of that, the record surge in tourism growth seen in the last two months stagnated in June, with firms blaming the rising costs of living and slowing pent-up demand. Overall job creation moderated to a 13-month low as firms scaled back hiring plans amid a worsening outlook for growth. On the price front, input costs continued to ease while output charges increased to a two-month high amid rising energy and raw materials costs.