GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW, ANALYSIS & FORECASTS:

Author: Dr. Alexander APOSTOLOV (researcher at Economic Research Institute at BAS)

The Dow closed more than 129 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose nearly 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. The upward trend comes amid lingering concerns about the stability of banks. Deutsche Bank's U.S.-listed shares fell just 3.1%, rebounding from a 14% drop earlier in the session. In the morning, Deutsche Bank said it would redeem US$1.5 billion of secondary bonds due in 2028, which triggered panic in the market and pushed European bank stocks down sharply. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sought to assuage concerns, telling EU leaders that the euro zone's banking sector was resilient and that the central bank's toolkit could provide liquidity to the financial system when needed. As a result, the three major stock indexes are set to post gains for the week. The Dow edged up 0.1% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1% and 2.1%, respectively.

On Friday, the Canada S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% to close around 19,500 after hitting its weakest level since the beginning of the year. Stocks rose on Wall Street as concerns over bank instability resurfaced. However, Canada-weighted financials edged lower, with BMO and TD closing almost flat after ECB President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying eurozone banks had strong capital and liquidity positions and the ECB could provide liquidity if needed. Energy stocks were also pressured by the collapse in crude oil prices, falling 0.5%. On the other hand, mining stocks (0.7%) and utilities (1.7%) gained. On the data front, preliminary data showed that Canadian retail sales fell 0.6% in February. For the week, the Canadian index was flat.

European shares fell on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, amid heightened concerns about the banking sector's health. The benchmark Stoxx 600 index fell 1.4%, the Stoxx Bank index fell 3.8%, and Deutsche Bank shares fell more than 3% after falling 15% earlier in the session. In the morning, Deutsche Bank said it would redeem $1.5 billion of secondary notes due in 2028, sparking market panic and pushing its credit-default swaps to their highest level since they were launched in 2019. ECB President Christine Lagarde sought to allay concerns by telling EU leaders that the euro zone's banking sector was resilient and that the central bank's toolkit could provide liquidity to the financial system when needed. Meanwhile, PMI data for March showed services sectors in France, Germany, and the eurozone grew much faster than initially expected while manufacturing unexpectedly fell. However, both the DAX and the STOXX 600 are up last week. The CAC 40 index fell 1.7% to 7,015 on Friday, snapping four days of gains on concerns about the health of the banking sector and news of the U.S. investigation into Credit Suisse and UBS. Separately, Deutsche Bank said it would redeem $1.5 billion of secondary notes due in 2028, sending its default swaps soaring to their highest level since they were first launched in 2019. Banks were the worst performers: Societe Generale (-6%), BNP Paribas (-5%), and Crédit Agricole (-2%). Domestically, the latest S&P global PMI showed that France's services sector grew more than expected, while manufacturing activity fell for a second straight month in March. Meanwhile, strikes and protests in France against raising the pension age to 64 continue. The FTSE MIB fell 2.2 percent to 25,892 on Friday, its third straight session of losses, as investors focused on the sector's stability and digested a batch of key rate hikes this week, with banks facing fresh Selling pressure. European banks posted losses after two German lenders refused to exercise call options on AT1 bonds. A U.S. Justice Department investigation into UBS and Credit Suisse aiding Russian oligarchs further damaged confidence in the sector. UniCredit, Banco BPM, and BPER Banca all fell more than 4 percent, leading to losses among financial companies. Meanwhile, shares of STMicroelectronics fell 3.8 percent after its dividend announcement disappointed investors. Despite this, the FTSE MIB ended the week up 1.5%. The IBEX 35 plunged to 8792 on Friday, extending into day three as volatility loomed over the financial sector. Spanish banks saw a sell-off after news emerged of the US DoJ's investigation into UBS and Credit Suisse for aiding Russian oligarchs. In addition, one of Europe's top lenders, Deutsche Bank, said it would redeem $1.5 billion in Tier 2 notes maturing in 2028, with its default swaps rising to the highest level since it was first introduced. in 2019. Bankinter, Sabadell, and BBVA were the most penalized values, down by 5.38%, 4.28%, and 4.06%, respectively. Conversely, Cellnex Tel was the only value to escape punishment (+1.14%) after the market learned that Chris Hohn had become the company's first shareholder. Domestically, investors have digested the latest GDP figures, showing the country's US economy expanded in the fourth quarter of 2022, but signaled the trend towards stagnation.

London shares came under renewed selling pressure, with the FTSE 100 down 1.1% on Friday at 7,400, extending recent volatile trade as investors questioned banks' ability to withstand a prolonged crisis of confidence. In contrast, investors digested The impact of several interest rate hikes by major central banks last week. Standard Chartered shares fell 6.4%, while Barclays and Prudential both fell 4% as further scrutiny of banks' health sparked a surge in credit default swaps in the sector. As crude oil prices stalled their rebound, energy producers also retreated, with Shell falling 3.2%. On the data front, UK retail sales were hotter than expected, while PMI figures missed forecasts but pointed to yet another expansion. Yesterday, the Bank of England raised its key bank rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and emphasized its willingness to keep growing borrowing costs to curb inflation. Despite this, the FTSE 100 ended the week up 0.8%.

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early losses to end Friday just above the flat line of 2,392, up 3% for the week as Moscow seeks to strengthen ties with Asia to bounce back from Western sanctions. Shares of Bank of St. Petersburg soared 11.5 percent, joining other lenders in announcing strong spending last year and citing upbeat profits this year as Moscow's financial sector adjusts to operations outside of the SWIFT system's strict capital controls. Meanwhile, Gazprom ended the week 4 percent higher as a Chinese delegation to Moscow advanced contract talks for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The pipeline will significantly increase gas exports to China, which is crucial for Gazprom's rebound in the current situation of low TTF prices and the destruction of Nord Stream 1.

The Baltic Exchange's leading shipping index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, fell 3% last week to 1489, its most in five weeks. The capesize index, which typically carries 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, lost 1.6% for the week to 1882, the most since the week ending Feb. 3. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose for the sixth consecutive week. Meanwhile, the Panamax index, which tracks coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tons, fell for the sixth straight day, down about 1.4% to its lowest level since March 7 at 1,584 points; and the supramax index lost 4 points to 1,333 points.

On Friday, the China Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to close at 3,266 points, while the Shenzhen Composite rose 0.25% to close at 11,634 points, as brewing Sino-U.S. tensions weighed on market sentiment. U.S. lawmakers recently questioned TikTok’s chief executive about China’s potential influence on the platform. At the same time, the Chinese military said it drove away a U.S. destroyer that entered waters near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Investors also faced tightening monetary conditions in other major economies and lingering concerns about a global banking crisis. Telecom stocks led the decline, including China Telecom (-4.1%), ZTE (-3.6%), and China Mobile (-2.2%). Meanwhile, technology stocks extended their recent performance, with Inspur Electronics (5.4%), HKUST Xunfei (5.6%), and United Letters (1.6%) gaining strongly.

The Hongkong Hang Seng Index fell 133.96 points, or 0.67%, to close at 19915.68 points on Friday. It rose in the previous three trading days due to concerns about the impact of the recent banking crisis. Hong Kong’s central bank said today that Hong Kong needs to pay attention to further spillover effects from banks in the United States. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Beijing resurfaced after U.S. lawmakers accused TikTok of causing emotional distress to young users on Thursday. Investors continued to digest hawkish comments from ECB officials. Several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Monetary Authority, raised interest rates last week. Financials, consumer, and real estate sectors were mostly down, while the technology sector was up. Semiconductor manufacturing fell 4.3 percent, Wuxi Biotech fell 3.5 percent, and China Tower Corp and China Longyuan Power dropped 3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. Still, the index climbed 2.0% on a weekly basis, supported by signs that China's economic recovery is gaining momentum.

Japan Nikkei 225 fell 0.4% to around 27,300, and the Topix shed 0.5% to 1,947, falling for a second straight session as investors bet on Japan's annual inflation rate falling sharply from a 41-year high. It reacted to data that reflected easing global inflationary pressures and a slowdown in global economic activity. Investors also digested data on further improvement in Japanese manufacturing and service sector activity in March. Meanwhile, investors grappled with global monetary tightening and the ongoing banking crisis. Financials led the losses, with losses in Mitsubishi UFJ (-0.6%), Sumitomo Mitsui (-0.5%), and Mizuho Financial (-1%). Other index heavyweights also fell, including Fast Retailing (-1.5%), Nippon Steel (-0.4%), and Toyota Motor (-0.4%).

The Australia S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5% on Friday to below 6950. It was set to drop for a seventh week as it has faced rising interest rates, global economic uncertainty, and recent banking turmoil since early February pressure. Investors also digested data that activity in Australia's manufacturing and services sectors contracted in March. Technology stocks led the decline, with Xero (-3.1%) and Weebit Nano (-9.8%) down sharply. Block Inc also tumbled 15 percent after Hindenburg Research reported that payments firms ignored widespread fraud. Financials also fell sharply, including Macquarie Group (-0.6%), Commonwealth Bank (-0.16%), National Australia Bank (-2%), ANZ Banking Group (-0.9%), and Westpac Banking Corp (-0.16%). 0.8%).

New Zealand shares were down 9 points, or less than 0.10%, at 11,585.98 around midday on Friday after a flat session in the previous session and were set to drop 1.2% for the week as concerns over the banking system persisted. Traders were also nervous after major central banks raised key interest rates. The Fed raised the fed funds rate by 25 bps, followed by the Bank of England (+25 bps), the Swiss National Bank (+50 ppts), and Norges Bank (-25 bps). In Asia, central banks in the Philippines and Taiwan also tightened policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had not cut interest rates this year, which weighed on market sentiment. In the U.S., Wall Street closed higher overnight as investors attempted to recover from Wednesday's sell-off. Consumer durables, technology, and industrials were among the worst losers, with Briscoe Group (-1.78%), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Co (-0.73%), Auckland International Airport (-0.56%), Contact Energy (-0.27%) and ANZ Bank Group ( -0.20%) fell.
The India BSE Sensex extended early losses to close 360 points lower at 57,570 on Friday, down nearly 1% for the week, its weakest level in more than five months, pressured by renewed selling activity in banks and materials stocks. The drop reflected a pullback in global stock market sentiment after the U.S. Justice Department investigated UBS and Credit Suisse aiding Russian oligarchs. At the same time, German banks declined to exercise a call option on AT1 bonds amid a recent plunge in risky bond prices. Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government would not insure all deposits in the country's banking system. As a result, Bajaj Finserv fell 4%, while Bajaj Finance and State Bank of India fell 3.3% and 1.4%, respectively. A sharp drop in base metals in China also affected Indian stocks, with Tata Steel shares falling nearly 3 percent.

Brazil's Ibovespa stock index finished up 0.8% on Friday at 98,700, followed by gains from its Wall Street peers after hitting an eight-month low in the previous session. Clashes persisted between the country's new government and its central bank, while investors continued to worry about the government's delay in unveiling new tax caps. In addition, recent data showed that Brazilian inflation slowed less than expected in the first half of March, supporting fears that the central bank could keep its key interest rate at 11.75% for longer. Among equities, BRF (11.1%), YDUQS (10.4%), and Hapvida (8.7%) outperformed, while Cogna (-8.8%), LocaWeb (-8%), Sendas (- 2%) recorded the greatest losses. For the week, the Brazilian index fell 3%.

 

REVIEWING THE LAST ECONOMIC DATA:

Reviewing the latest economic  news, the most critical data is:

- US: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI rising to 49.1 in March 2023 from 47.3 in February, beating forecasts of 47. The data showed that in the current five-month series of declines in factory activity, new orders fell less as production rose again. In addition, inflationary pressures eased due to higher supplier prices and moderation in some raw material costs. There was also an unprecedented improvement in supplier lead times, which led to a slower decline in input purchases and less depletion of pre-production stocks. Lead times were minimized, allowing the company to start replenishing inventory and dealing with backlogs, which had dropped significantly. Employment continues to grow steadily, with companies noting further difficulties finding skilled candidates. Finally, confidence was at its lowest in three months amid inflation concerns and uncertainty about demand.

- US: U.S. durable goods orders measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers and are expected to last at least three years. In February 2023, durable goods orders fell by 1% month-on-month, following a 5% increase in January, while the consensus forecast increased by 0.6%. Transportation equipment was the biggest drag, down 2.8 percent, as were nondefense aircraft and parts (-6.6 percent), defense aircraft and parts (-11.1 percent), while motor vehicles and parts fell 0.9 percent. Excluding shipping, new orders were a little changed. Orders for capital goods also fell (-2.2%), namely non-defense goods (-1.2%), machinery (-0.5%), computers, and electronics (-0.1%), but fabricated metals (0.4%), and primary metals ( 0.3%) orders rose. Orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, rose 0.2 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in January.

- CA: Preliminary estimates show that wholesale sales in Canada fell 1.6% month-on-month in February 2023 after rising 2.4% in January. The decline primarily reflected lower sales of motor vehicles and auto parts and accessories (-5.6%) and food, beverage, and tobacco products (-3.9%). In addition, sales of building materials and supplies (-2.9%) and personal and household goods (-0.6%) also fell. In contrast, sales of agricultural products (+2.7%), miscellaneous goods (+1.4%), and machinery, equipment, and supplies (+0.8%) surged.

- CA: Preliminary estimates suggest that in February 2023, Canadian retail sales could fall by 0.6% month-on-month. They were considering that in January 2022, retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month after a revised flat in December and above the initial estimate of 0.7%. Sales rose in nine of the 11 subsectors, led by auto and parts for the sixth consecutive gain (3%), and retail sales at new car dealerships up 3%, the largest increase since May 2022. Sales also rose at petrol stations and fuel suppliers (2.9 percent), clothing, accessories, and leather goods retailers (1.8 percent), and food and beverage retailers (0.8 percent). Excluding autos, retail sales edged up 0.9% in January, above expectations for a 0.6% increase. Canadian retail sales rose 5% year-over-year, easing from a downwardly revised 5.9% pace last month.

- FR: Preliminary estimates show the S&P Global French Services PMI rising to 55.5 in March 2023, the highest since May 2022, from 53.1 in February, above the market forecast of 52.5. Service firms reported higher workloads, hiring, and optimism while operating expenses rose sharply due to rising wages and general inflation. Joe Hayes, a senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the latest PMI "reflected well the underlying health of the French domestic economy, despite cost-of-living pressures, rising borrowing costs and recession fears weighing on consumer and business finances. pressure."

- UK: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI falling to 52.8 in March 2023 from 53.5 in February, below market expectations of 53. New order growth accelerated due to stronger customer confidence, resilient demand for consumer services, and a boost to spending from lower inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, job creation in the service economy hit a three-month low. On the price front, service providers continued to report a much larger increase in input prices than manufacturing companies. Looking ahead, despite recent volatility in global financial markets, confidence in the services economy has remained unchanged since February.

- UK: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in March 2023 from 49.3 in February, well below the 49.8 forecast. The data showed factory activity fell for an eighth month, with production and orders falling again. Meanwhile, manufacturers have cut headcount at an even faster pace. Meanwhile, cost pressures have eased, with many companies pointing to lower commodity prices and freight rates being passed on by suppliers. In addition, manufacturers reported improved supply conditions, with lead times shrinking the most since April 2009. Finally, business expectations increased amid hopes of a rebound in customer demand and a boost from improved supply chain performance.

- UK: Flash data showed that the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI fell to 52.2 in March 2023 from an eight-month high of 53.1 in February, missing market expectations of 52.8. The latest data showed continued growth in the private sector, largely reflecting the strength of the services economy. New business received by service sector firms rose fastest in 12 months, although a shortage of workers held back growth. Manufacturing output fell in March, again weighed down by weak orders. Meanwhile, input price inflation fell to a two-year low in March, largely reflecting a sharp easing of cost pressures in manufacturing. Many companies point to lower commodity prices and falling shipping costs being passed on by suppliers. Manufacturers reported improved supply conditions, with lead times shrinking the most since April 2009. Looking ahead, confidence has risen to its highest level since March 2022.

- EU: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global Eurozone manufacturing PMI falling to 47.1 in March 2023 from 48.5 in February, below market expectations of 49. The latest data showed that manufacturing output broadly stagnated for a second straight month, though that improved from the steady decline in the second half of last year. The auto sector was particularly strong, partly related to improving supply chains. Improved supply chains and lower demand further eased pressure on industrial input prices, which fell for the first time since July 2020. Meanwhile, job growth has held steady at a relatively slow pace, the slowest in the past two years. New orders fell faster for the 11th straight month, leading to the biggest backlog drop in four months. Existing output can only be sustained by cannibalizing previously placed orders, posing a downside risk to future output.

- EU: According to preliminary estimates, the S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 54.1 in March 2023 from 52 in February, above market expectations of 51.9, the fastest expansion since May 2022. Growth was driven entirely by services, the largest expansion in 10 months (55.6 versus February's 53.7), offsetting a contraction among manufacturers (47.1 versus 48.5). Aggregate output rose during the period, helped by a further recovery in financial services and housing, despite recent concerns about instability in the banking sector. In addition, new orders rose for the second straight month, adding to the total backlog of work. Meanwhile, job growth hit a nine-month high. On the price front, a record easing of supply constraints, low demand, and a sharp drop in energy prices over the period pushed input prices down for the first time since July 2020.

- EU: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI rose to 55.6 in March 2023 from 52.7 in February, beating market expectations of 52.5. Business activity rose for the third month, marking the strongest expansion since last May. A key development has been a further recovery in growth in the financial services sector, with real estate activity showing a marked upturn compared with late last year, despite recent concerns about banking stability and higher interest rates. Consumer services activity also recovered from a slump late last year, especially in tourism. New orders rose faster, causing backlogs to accumulate faster since last May, which should help support further growth in the coming months. Job growth increased to a 10-month high as businesses seek to keep up with rising demand. Finally, optimism about the year ahead has eased but remains well above levels seen at the end of last year.

- GE: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P German global manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to 44.4 in March 2023 from 46.3 in February, well below the forecast of 47. The data showed factory activity fell for the ninth month, the sharpest contraction since the coronavirus outbreak in May 2020, largely as supplier delivery times surged to record highs. Meanwhile, manufacturing output and job creation were little changed, with orders falling more rapidly and unfinished business falling markedly. Meanwhile, factory gate fee inflation slowed to the lowest level since January 2021, overall input costs fell to the highest level since May 2020, orders fell, and supply bottlenecks eased amid softer raw material and energy prices and balanced material supply and demand, Leading commodity producers to cut purchase levels and reduce inputs.

- FR: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P global manufacturing PMI edged to 47.7 in March 2023 from 47.4 in February but fell slightly short of a forecast of 48. The data showed factory activity fell for a second straight month, production fell for a tenth consecutive month, new orders continued to fall, and employment rose only slightly. Meanwhile, ample inventory levels at customers reportedly weigh on demand for manufactured goods. Lower sales led to another buildup of post-production inventories, while input inventories fell further as firms struggled to keep their material supplies in line with production plans. Meanwhile, improving supply conditions helped ease some inflationary pressures, with input costs rising only modestly, at their slowest pace in two-and-a-half years. Finally, manufacturers are pessimistic about their 12-month outlook for the first time since November.

- TW: Taiwan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.58 percent in February 2023 from 3.6 percent the previous month, the lowest level since January 2001. Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed increased by 4,000 to 420,000, while the number of workers increased by 14,000 to 11.485 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased to 59.18% from 59.17% in January.

- SW: Sweden's annual producer inflation rate fell to 9.3% in February 2023 from 11.8% in the previous month. It was the lowest rate of producer inflation since May 2021, driven by energy-related products (5.9% vs. 11.7% in January), capital goods (11.4% vs. 11.8%), and consumer goods (15.4% vs. 15.7%) The price increase has been moderate. Excluding energy-related products, producer prices rose 11.2%, slower than a 12.9% gain in the previous month. As a result, producer prices fell 1% on a monthly basis after falling 5.2% in January.

- JP: In March 2022, the ANZ Japan Services PMI rose to 54.2 from 54.0 in February. It was the seventh straight month of growth in service sector activity and the strongest growth since October 2011, as ongoing government support for the sector continued and China lifted remaining COVID-19 restrictions, bringing Japan a new pace of change. Came for inbound tourism. The increase in new orders was the largest in ten months, and new export orders rose at the fastest pace since the series began in September 2014. At the same time, job growth accelerated while the backlog of jobs grew slower. On the cost front, input prices eased, but stronger demand conditions encouraged companies to raise selling prices for the eleventh straight month, the fastest pace since October 2019. Finally, confidence is more optimistic as the outbreak's impact recedes globally.

- JP: Preliminary estimates show that in March 2023, the Bank of Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 48.6 from 47.7 in February, the lowest reading since September 2020. It was the fifth straight month of contraction in the sector, as output and new orders contracted at the weakest pace in five months while the decline in new export orders slowed. Meanwhile, companies increased employment levels for the 24th month in a row, even as job creation slowed and the backlog of jobs fell faster. On the pricing front, input cost inflation slowed to its lowest since August 2021. As a result, output cost inflation has also eased. In addition, supplier performance improved at the lowest rate in 29 months as supply pressures increased. Finally, business sentiment rose to a five-month high.

- JP: A bulletin shows that in March 2023, the Bank of Japan's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.9 from 51.1 a month earlier. It was the third straight month of growth in private sector output and the fastest pace since June 2022, led by the largest service sector expansion since October 2011 as the Chinese government continued to support and cancel the Remaining COVID-19 restrictions, which brought inbound tourism to Japan. Meanwhile, manufacturing firms sent a further downbeat signal, contracting for the fifth straight month. On the other hand, both new orders and employment rose faster, foreign sales fell slower, while the reduction in backlogs of work accelerated. Furthermore, in terms of inflation, input costs fell while selling prices rose faster. Finally, confidence is strengthened.

- JP: Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.1% year-on-year in February 2023, slowing sharply to its lowest level in five months from a more than 40-year high of 4.2% in January. The latest data were also in line with market expectations, reflecting easing inflationary pressures in other major economies amid slowing global growth. Still, core inflation topped the central bank's 2 percent target for the 11th straight month, although the BOJ now faces less pressure to normalize monetary policy. The BOJ kept its ultra-low interest rate policy unchanged in the March adjustment, the last policy meeting before Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retired.

- JP: Food prices in Japan rose 7.5% year-on-year in February 2023, the biggest increase since September 1980, after rising 7.3% in the previous month. This was the 18th month in a row that food prices rose on the back of a rapidly depreciating yen. Mainly fresh fruit (3.7% vs. 2.8%), alcoholic beverages (6.1% vs. 6.0%), drinks (7.8% vs. 6.3%), dairy products, and eggs (11.7% vs. 7.0 percent), oils, fats, and seasonings (10.6 percent versus 9.8 percent), eating out (6.4 percent versus 5.9 percent) and cooked food (8.3 percent versus 7.7 percent). Meanwhile, inflation moderated in cereals (7.2% vs. 8.1%), fish and seafood (15.5% vs. 16.1%), fresh vegetables (0.7% vs. 3.1%), and meat (7.5% vs. 7.6%) ).

- JP: Japan's annual inflation rate fell to 3.3% in February 2023 from 4.3% in January, the highest level in 41 years. The drop came as transport, and communications costs rose the least in 5 months (1.7% vs. 2.1% in January), while fuel, lighting, and water prices fell for the first time since May 2021 (-0.3% vs. 14.9%), mainly electricity (-5.5% vs. 20.2%) and natural gas (12.5% vs. 24.3%). In contrast, housing inflation remained unchanged (1.1%), while clothing (3.6% vs. 3.1%), furniture and household appliances (8.7% vs. 7.7%), healthcare (0.9% vs. 0.5%), education (0.9% vs. 0.7%), and miscellaneous (1.1% vs. 1.1%). Also, food costs have increased since September 1980 (7.5% vs. 7.3% in January). Core consumer prices rose 3.1 percent year-on-year, the weakest in five months, in line with forecasts but above the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target for the 11th straight month. Consumer prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in February, the first decline since October 2021.

- BL: Belgium's business confidence barometer rose to -7.6 in March 2023 from -12.8 in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of improvement since it hit a two-year low of -16.6 in November 2022. Sentiment for business services swung to optimistic (8.4 vs. -7.6 in February) amid sharp rebounds in the sector's activity expectations and market demand. At the same time, pessimism eased for manufacturing (-10.8 vs. -14.8), trade (-21.6 vs. -24.4), and construction (-5 vs. -5.8 ).

 

LOOKING AHEAD:

Week ahead:

- The turmoil affecting the banking sector will continue to attract investors' attention. In the United States, Fed Vice Chairman for Oversight Michael S. Barr will testify before the Senate and the House. In addition, consumer income and spending, the PCE price index, and the final reading of Q4 GDP growth will be released. Elsewhere, the euro area, Germany, France, and Spain will publish inflation data. Finally, Ifo Business Climate and GfK Consumer Confidence will be in the spotlight in Germany.

 

Today, investors should watch out for the following important data:

- JPY: SPPI y/y.

- GBP: CBI Realized Sales, and BOE Gov Bailey Speaks.

- EUR: German ifo Business Climate, M3 Money Supply y/y, Private Loans y/y, and German Buba President Nagel Speaks.

 

KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

Кey factors in the stock and bond market are currently:

- US: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell 11 basis points to 3.29% on Friday, the lowest level since September 2022, as turmoil in the banking sector continued and investors flocked to safety. Deutsche Bank shares have come under intense pressure since it announced the redemption of $1.5 billion of secondary notes due 2028, as its credit-default swaps soared to their highest level since they were first launched in 2019. News of the U.S. probes into Credit Suisse and UBS, as well as a sharp drop in shares of Deutsche Bank, also weighed on traders' sentiment. Meanwhile, the two-year yield fell more than 20 basis points to 3.59%. Bonds have been rallying since Wednesday after dovish comments from the Fed and a 25 basis point hike in its funds rate, signaling it is about to pause its tightening in response to recent risks to financial stability.

- US: U.S. futures fell on Friday, with the Dow Jones futures contract down nearly 300 points, the S&P 500 down 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.4%, amid renewed concerns about the global banking system. Bank stocks came under intense pressure in the pre-market session, with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup all down. Deutsche Bank's U.S.-listed shares fell nearly 8% in premarket trading after the bank said it would redeem $1.5 billion of secondary notes due 2028, with its credit-default swaps surging to the highest level since its launch in 2019. highest level. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating UBS and Credit Suisse into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions. Bank stocks fell despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying she was prepared to take further steps to protect deposits if needed. All three major indexes are up nearly 1% so far last week.

- UK: UK 10-year gilt yields fell below 3.2%, near their lowest level in almost seven weeks, as concerns over the global financial sector fueled demand for government bonds. Meanwhile, the latest data showed continued growth in UK private sector output, largely reflecting a strong service economy performance. The PMI survey showed that in the first three months of 2023, the UK economy grew by 0.2% from the previous quarter. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected, and said further hikes might be necessary if there is evidence of more persistent pressure.

- AU: Preliminary estimates show that in March 2023, the Australian Judo Bank manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 from 50.5 in the previous month. The report said that new orders and output fell in the worst contraction since May 2020 as rising interest rates and inflationary pressures weighed on demand. Manufacturing output shrank for a fourth straight month, driven by a decline in new orders, whose pace of exposure has accelerated since August 2021. Labor demand continues to ease while Australian businesses look to expand workforce levels in early 2023. Meanwhile, the overall level of business confidence fell further to its lowest level in almost three years.

- AU: Flash estimates show the Judo Bank Australia Services PMI at 48.2 in March 2023, down from 50.7 in February. This marks the fifth month of contraction in the past six months, following expansion in February. New business in the services sector deteriorated at the fastest rate since September 2021, with high prices and market conditions weighing on demand. International demand rose for the third straight month. Input cost pressures eased as overall demand fell and labor force expansion slowed. Business sentiment remained upbeat, with confidence levels hitting a two-month high and hopes for the outlook to improve.

- AU: Flash estimates show that in March 2023, the Judo Bank-Australia Composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.1 from 50.6 in the previous month. It was the lowest reading since December 2022, as activity in Australia's manufacturing and services sectors fell, leading to a broad deterioration in private sector output. Business activity contracted faster in manufacturing than in services. The fall in aggregate private sector output was due to lower demand as higher interest rates, higher inflation, and weaker economic conditions affected new Australian goods and services businesses. The foreign market also shrank on weak manufacturing export orders.

- EU: Government bond yields in Europe fell for a second session on Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Bund falling nearly 20 basis points to 2.02%, its lowest in almost two months, driven by a flight to safety as banks came under renewed pressure and investors reduced bets on future rate hikes. News of a US investigation into Credit Suisse and UBS and a sharp drop in Deutsche Bank shares weighed on traders' confidence. In addition, Deutsche Bank suffered losses after announcing the redemption of $1.5 billion in a set of Tier 2 notes maturing in 2028, and its credit default swaps surged to their highest level since they were first introduced in 2019. At the same time, Bets on prolonged monetary tightening from the ECB eased after the Federal Reserve signaled just one more rate hike for 2023. Meanwhile, the German 2-year yield fell 21 basis points to 2.29%.

 

LEADING MARKET SECTORS:

- Strong sectors: Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Real Estate.

- Weak sectors: Financials, Consumer Discretionary.

 

TOP CURRENCY & COMMODITIES MARKET DRIVERS: 

Кey factors in the currency and commodities market are currently:

- EUR: The euro fell nearly 1 percent to $1.07 on Friday, moving further away from a seven-week high touched on Wednesday, as concerns about the banking sector's health again weighed on investors' risk appetite. News of the U.S. investigations into Credit Suisse and UBS and a sharp drop in Deutsche Bank shares fueled deeper concerns in the banking sector. In addition, Deutsche Bank suffered losses after announcing the redemption of $1.5 billion of secondary notes due 2028, with its credit-default swaps surging to their highest level since they were first launched in 2019. Meanwhile, preliminary PMIs from France, Germany, and the eurozone pointed to strong services and fragile manufacturing sectors in March. On monetary policy, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently said, "if inflation develops as expected, this should not, in my view, mark the end of the sequence of rate hikes," suggesting that the ECB will further hike.

- GBP: Sterling fell below $1.22 after a report that UBS and Credit Suisse were under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions, two sessions rallied on renewed worries in the banking sector. Still, sterling was on track for a second straight week of gains after the Bank of England raised its key bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, largely as expected and leaving the door open for further hikes if inflation persists. The latest data showed that UK private sector output continued to grow, largely reflecting the strength of the services economy. The PMI survey showed that in the first three months of 2023, the UK economy grew by 0.2% from the previous quarter.

- CNY: The offshore yuan depreciated by more than 6.83 per dollar, retreating from a five-week high, as concerns over a global banking crisis and brewing U.S.-China tensions weighed on sentiment. U.S. lawmakers recently questioned TikTok’s chief executive about China’s potential influence on the platform. At the same time, the Chinese military said it drove away a U.S. destroyer that entered waters near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. On the monetary policy front, the yuan has come under increased liquidity pressure after the People's Bank of China announced its first surprise cut to the bank's reserve requirement ratio this year to help the economy recover. The central bank also kept key lending rates steady in its March rate fixes, with the prime rate for one-year loans at 3.65 percent and the maximum speed for five-year loans at 4.3 percent.

- USD: The U.S. dollar index was steady at around 102.6 on Friday, with investors still assessing the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as the central bank aims to strike a balance between fighting inflation and lingering concerns about a banking crisis. Earlier last week, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate hike and signaled there would be only one more hike. Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials would not cut rates this year and are prepared to extend the tightening cycle if necessary. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated on Thursday that the U.S. government is ready to take further action to protect savers. Investors now look ahead to Friday's U.S. durable goods, manufacturing, and services data and speeches from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. The U.S. dollar index is set to fall more than 1% last week.

- SLV: Silver futures soared past $23 an ounce in late March, the most in nearly two months, supported by dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and a renewed flight to safety amid bank instability. The Fed's projections suggest that there is only a quarter-point hike in interest rates left in its tightening cycle, indicating more caution from the FOMC to address the recent stress on the US financial sector. In addition, the continuing turmoil for US banks triggered a flight to the safety of bullion after US Treasury Secretary Yellen denied the government would protect all deposits in the US banking system. On the supply side, continued outflows of bullion inventories continued to support silver prices.

- COP: Copper futures settled around $4.1 a pound in late March, the highest in three weeks, as expectations of strong demand and concerns about lower supply offset the greenback's sharp rebound. New data showed that China's copper demand rose 11% yearly in February, supported by increased infrastructure construction and new energy investments as it reopened its economy. Meanwhile, lead producer Peru's mining exports fell nearly 20% annually in January on widespread protests, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained lower. Running out of inventories in Shanghai and strong demand prompted leading commodity trader Trafigura to predict that copper prices could soar to a record high this year,

- IRN: Prices for iron ore cargoes with an iron ore content of 63.5% for delivery to Tianjin fell to $122 per ton at the end of March, the lowest in two months, driven by weaker demand by steel producers and increased speculative price controls. Reports indicate that China's top producer will reduce its domestic steel production by 2.5% in 2023, marking the third consecutive annual decline. Immediate bidding activity is also expected to remain subdued as pollution regulations forced major steelmaking centers Tangshan and Handan to reduce capacity. Meanwhile, China's National Development and Reform Commission has issued further warnings against speculative increases in iron ore prices, saying it will crack down on false information by producers and hoarding by traders. Meanwhile, efforts to shore up infrastructure and construction have limited the decline,

 

CHART OF THE DAY:

Gold prices rose to near $2,000 an ounce in late March, a one-year high, and were on course for a fourth straight week of gains, supported by a fresh flight to safety on concerns about the banking crisis. Deutsche Bank said it would buy back $1.5 billion in a set of senior notes maturing in 2028, as its credit default swaps jumped to their highest level since they were introduced in 2019. At the same time, Bloomberg reported that UBS and Credit Suisse are under scrutiny in a US Justice Department investigation into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Yellen said authorities were ready to take further steps to protect deposits if needed. This week, the US central bank raised its interest rate by 25bps, as expected.

 

 

 

 

Long-term Channels Trading Strategy: - Gold XAUUSD -; Chart with time-frame (D1); The primary Resistance with a potential (consolidation area) is around ~ ( 2049 ),  and the primary Support with a potential (consolidation area) is around ~ ( 1941 ).  Therefore, the next most probable price movement is a (sideways) trend. *see details on the chart.

GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW, ANALYSIS & FORECASTS: Author: Dr. Alexander APOSTOLOV (researcher at Economic Research Institute at BAS) The Dow closed more than 129 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose nearly 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. The upward trend comes amid lingering concerns about the stability of banks. Deutsche Bank's U.S.-listed shares fell just 3.1%, rebounding from a 14% drop earlier in the session. In the morning, Deutsche Bank said it would redeem US$1.5 billion of secondary bonds due in 2028, which triggered panic in the market and pushed European bank stocks down sharply. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sought to assuage concerns, telling EU leaders that the euro zone's banking sector was resilient and that the central bank's toolkit could provide liquidity to the financial system when needed. As a result, the three major stock indexes are set to post gains for the week. The Dow edged up 0.1% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1% and 2.1%, respectively. On Friday, the Canada S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% to close around 19,500 after hitting its weakest level since the beginning of the year. Stocks rose on Wall Street as concerns over bank instability resurfaced. However, Canada-weighted financials edged lower, with BMO and TD closing almost flat after ECB President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying eurozone banks had strong capital and liquidity positions and the ECB could provide liquidity if needed. Energy stocks were also pressured by the collapse in crude oil prices, falling 0.5%. On the other hand, mining stocks (0.7%) and utilities (1.7%) gained. On the data front, preliminary data showed that Canadian retail sales fell 0.6% in February. For the week, the Canadian index was flat. European shares fell on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, amid heightened concerns about the banking sector's health. The benchmark Stoxx 600 index fell 1.4%, the Stoxx Bank index fell 3.8%, and Deutsche Bank shares fell more than 3% after falling 15% earlier in the session. In the morning, Deutsche Bank said it would redeem $1.5 billion of secondary notes due in 2028, sparking market panic and pushing its credit-default swaps to their highest level since they were launched in 2019. ECB President Christine Lagarde sought to allay concerns by telling EU leaders that the euro zone's banking sector was resilient and that the central bank's toolkit could provide liquidity to the financial system when needed. Meanwhile, PMI data for March showed services sectors in France, Germany, and the eurozone grew much faster than initially expected while manufacturing unexpectedly fell. However, both the DAX and the STOXX 600 are up last week. The CAC 40 index fell 1.7% to 7,015 on Friday, snapping four days of gains on concerns about the health of the banking sector and news of the U.S. investigation into Credit Suisse and UBS. Separately, Deutsche Bank said it would redeem $1.5 billion of secondary notes due in 2028, sending its default swaps soaring to their highest level since they were first launched in 2019. Banks were the worst performers: Societe Generale (-6%), BNP Paribas (-5%), and Crédit Agricole (-2%). Domestically, the latest S&P global PMI showed that France's services sector grew more than expected, while manufacturing activity fell for a second straight month in March. Meanwhile, strikes and protests in France against raising the pension age to 64 continue. The FTSE MIB fell 2.2 percent to 25,892 on Friday, its third straight session of losses, as investors focused on the sector's stability and digested a batch of key rate hikes this week, with banks facing fresh Selling pressure. European banks posted losses after two German lenders refused to exercise call options on AT1 bonds. A U.S. Justice Department investigation into UBS and Credit Suisse aiding Russian oligarchs further damaged confidence in the sector. UniCredit, Banco BPM, and BPER Banca all fell more than 4 percent, leading to losses among financial companies. Meanwhile, shares of STMicroelectronics fell 3.8 percent after its dividend announcement disappointed investors. Despite this, the FTSE MIB ended the week up 1.5%. The IBEX 35 plunged to 8792 on Friday, extending into day three as volatility loomed over the financial sector. Spanish banks saw a sell-off after news emerged of the US DoJ's investigation into UBS and Credit Suisse for aiding Russian oligarchs. In addition, one of Europe's top lenders, Deutsche Bank, said it would redeem $1.5 billion in Tier 2 notes maturing in 2028, with its default swaps rising to the highest level since it was first introduced. in 2019. Bankinter, Sabadell, and BBVA were the most penalized values, down by 5.38%, 4.28%, and 4.06%, respectively. Conversely, Cellnex Tel was the only value to escape punishment (+1.14%) after the market learned that Chris Hohn had become the company's first shareholder. Domestically, investors have digested the latest GDP figures, showing the country's US economy expanded in the fourth quarter of 2022, but signaled the trend towards stagnation. London shares came under renewed selling pressure, with the FTSE 100 down 1.1% on Friday at 7,400, extending recent volatile trade as investors questioned banks' ability to withstand a prolonged crisis of confidence. In contrast, investors digested The impact of several interest rate hikes by major central banks last week. Standard Chartered shares fell 6.4%, while Barclays and Prudential both fell 4% as further scrutiny of banks' health sparked a surge in credit default swaps in the sector. As crude oil prices stalled their rebound, energy producers also retreated, with Shell falling 3.2%. On the data front, UK retail sales were hotter than expected, while PMI figures missed forecasts but pointed to yet another expansion. Yesterday, the Bank of England raised its key bank rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and emphasized its willingness to keep growing borrowing costs to curb inflation. Despite this, the FTSE 100 ended the week up 0.8%. The ruble-based MOEX Russia index pared early losses to end Friday just above the flat line of 2,392, up 3% for the week as Moscow seeks to strengthen ties with Asia to bounce back from Western sanctions. Shares of Bank of St. Petersburg soared 11.5 percent, joining other lenders in announcing strong spending last year and citing upbeat profits this year as Moscow's financial sector adjusts to operations outside of the SWIFT system's strict capital controls. Meanwhile, Gazprom ended the week 4 percent higher as a Chinese delegation to Moscow advanced contract talks for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The pipeline will significantly increase gas exports to China, which is crucial for Gazprom's rebound in the current situation of low TTF prices and the destruction of Nord Stream 1. The Baltic Exchange's leading shipping index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, fell 3% last week to 1489, its most in five weeks. The capesize index, which typically carries 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, lost 1.6% for the week to 1882, the most since the week ending Feb. 3. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose for the sixth consecutive week. Meanwhile, the Panamax index, which tracks coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tons, fell for the sixth straight day, down about 1.4% to its lowest level since March 7 at 1,584 points; and the supramax index lost 4 points to 1,333 points. On Friday, the China Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to close at 3,266 points, while the Shenzhen Composite rose 0.25% to close at 11,634 points, as brewing Sino-U.S. tensions weighed on market sentiment. U.S. lawmakers recently questioned TikTok’s chief executive about China’s potential influence on the platform. At the same time, the Chinese military said it drove away a U.S. destroyer that entered waters near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Investors also faced tightening monetary conditions in other major economies and lingering concerns about a global banking crisis. Telecom stocks led the decline, including China Telecom (-4.1%), ZTE (-3.6%), and China Mobile (-2.2%). Meanwhile, technology stocks extended their recent performance, with Inspur Electronics (5.4%), HKUST Xunfei (5.6%), and United Letters (1.6%) gaining strongly. The Hongkong Hang Seng Index fell 133.96 points, or 0.67%, to close at 19915.68 points on Friday. It rose in the previous three trading days due to concerns about the impact of the recent banking crisis. Hong Kong’s central bank said today that Hong Kong needs to pay attention to further spillover effects from banks in the United States. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Beijing resurfaced after U.S. lawmakers accused TikTok of causing emotional distress to young users on Thursday. Investors continued to digest hawkish comments from ECB officials. Several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Monetary Authority, raised interest rates last week. Financials, consumer, and real estate sectors were mostly down, while the technology sector was up. Semiconductor manufacturing fell 4.3 percent, Wuxi Biotech fell 3.5 percent, and China Tower Corp and China Longyuan Power dropped 3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. Still, the index climbed 2.0% on a weekly basis, supported by signs that China's economic recovery is gaining momentum. Japan Nikkei 225 fell 0.4% to around 27,300, and the Topix shed 0.5% to 1,947, falling for a second straight session as investors bet on Japan's annual inflation rate falling sharply from a 41-year high. It reacted to data that reflected easing global inflationary pressures and a slowdown in global economic activity. Investors also digested data on further improvement in Japanese manufacturing and service sector activity in March. Meanwhile, investors grappled with global monetary tightening and the ongoing banking crisis. Financials led the losses, with losses in Mitsubishi UFJ (-0.6%), Sumitomo Mitsui (-0.5%), and Mizuho Financial (-1%). Other index heavyweights also fell, including Fast Retailing (-1.5%), Nippon Steel (-0.4%), and Toyota Motor (-0.4%). The Australia S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5% on Friday to below 6950. It was set to drop for a seventh week as it has faced rising interest rates, global economic uncertainty, and recent banking turmoil since early February pressure. Investors also digested data that activity in Australia's manufacturing and services sectors contracted in March. Technology stocks led the decline, with Xero (-3.1%) and Weebit Nano (-9.8%) down sharply. Block Inc also tumbled 15 percent after Hindenburg Research reported that payments firms ignored widespread fraud. Financials also fell sharply, including Macquarie Group (-0.6%), Commonwealth Bank (-0.16%), National Australia Bank (-2%), ANZ Banking Group (-0.9%), and Westpac Banking Corp (-0.16%). 0.8%). New Zealand shares were down 9 points, or less than 0.10%, at 11,585.98 around midday on Friday after a flat session in the previous session and were set to drop 1.2% for the week as concerns over the banking system persisted. Traders were also nervous after major central banks raised key interest rates. The Fed raised the fed funds rate by 25 bps, followed by the Bank of England (+25 bps), the Swiss National Bank (+50 ppts), and Norges Bank (-25 bps). In Asia, central banks in the Philippines and Taiwan also tightened policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had not cut interest rates this year, which weighed on market sentiment. In the U.S., Wall Street closed higher overnight as investors attempted to recover from Wednesday's sell-off. Consumer durables, technology, and industrials were among the worst losers, with Briscoe Group (-1.78%), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Co (-0.73%), Auckland International Airport (-0.56%), Contact Energy (-0.27%) and ANZ Bank Group ( -0.20%) fell. The India BSE Sensex extended early losses to close 360 points lower at 57,570 on Friday, down nearly 1% for the week, its weakest level in more than five months, pressured by renewed selling activity in banks and materials stocks. The drop reflected a pullback in global stock market sentiment after the U.S. Justice Department investigated UBS and Credit Suisse aiding Russian oligarchs. At the same time, German banks declined to exercise a call option on AT1 bonds amid a recent plunge in risky bond prices. Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government would not insure all deposits in the country's banking system. As a result, Bajaj Finserv fell 4%, while Bajaj Finance and State Bank of India fell 3.3% and 1.4%, respectively. A sharp drop in base metals in China also affected Indian stocks, with Tata Steel shares falling nearly 3 percent. Brazil's Ibovespa stock index finished up 0.8% on Friday at 98,700, followed by gains from its Wall Street peers after hitting an eight-month low in the previous session. Clashes persisted between the country's new government and its central bank, while investors continued to worry about the government's delay in unveiling new tax caps. In addition, recent data showed that Brazilian inflation slowed less than expected in the first half of March, supporting fears that the central bank could keep its key interest rate at 11.75% for longer. Among equities, BRF (11.1%), YDUQS (10.4%), and Hapvida (8.7%) outperformed, while Cogna (-8.8%), LocaWeb (-8%), Sendas (- 2%) recorded the greatest losses. For the week, the Brazilian index fell 3%.   REVIEWING THE LAST ECONOMIC DATA: Reviewing the latest economic  news, the most critical data is: - US: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI rising to 49.1 in March 2023 from 47.3 in February, beating forecasts of 47. The data showed that in the current five-month series of declines in factory activity, new orders fell less as production rose again. In addition, inflationary pressures eased due to higher supplier prices and moderation in some raw material costs. There was also an unprecedented improvement in supplier lead times, which led to a slower decline in input purchases and less depletion of pre-production stocks. Lead times were minimized, allowing the company to start replenishing inventory and dealing with backlogs, which had dropped significantly. Employment continues to grow steadily, with companies noting further difficulties finding skilled candidates. Finally, confidence was at its lowest in three months amid inflation concerns and uncertainty about demand. - US: U.S. durable goods orders measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers and are expected to last at least three years. In February 2023, durable goods orders fell by 1% month-on-month, following a 5% increase in January, while the consensus forecast increased by 0.6%. Transportation equipment was the biggest drag, down 2.8 percent, as were nondefense aircraft and parts (-6.6 percent), defense aircraft and parts (-11.1 percent), while motor vehicles and parts fell 0.9 percent. Excluding shipping, new orders were a little changed. Orders for capital goods also fell (-2.2%), namely non-defense goods (-1.2%), machinery (-0.5%), computers, and electronics (-0.1%), but fabricated metals (0.4%), and primary metals ( 0.3%) orders rose. Orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, rose 0.2 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in January. - CA: Preliminary estimates show that wholesale sales in Canada fell 1.6% month-on-month in February 2023 after rising 2.4% in January. The decline primarily reflected lower sales of motor vehicles and auto parts and accessories (-5.6%) and food, beverage, and tobacco products (-3.9%). In addition, sales of building materials and supplies (-2.9%) and personal and household goods (-0.6%) also fell. In contrast, sales of agricultural products (+2.7%), miscellaneous goods (+1.4%), and machinery, equipment, and supplies (+0.8%) surged. - CA: Preliminary estimates suggest that in February 2023, Canadian retail sales could fall by 0.6% month-on-month. They were considering that in January 2022, retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month after a revised flat in December and above the initial estimate of 0.7%. Sales rose in nine of the 11 subsectors, led by auto and parts for the sixth consecutive gain (3%), and retail sales at new car dealerships up 3%, the largest increase since May 2022. Sales also rose at petrol stations and fuel suppliers (2.9 percent), clothing, accessories, and leather goods retailers (1.8 percent), and food and beverage retailers (0.8 percent). Excluding autos, retail sales edged up 0.9% in January, above expectations for a 0.6% increase. Canadian retail sales rose 5% year-over-year, easing from a downwardly revised 5.9% pace last month. - FR: Preliminary estimates show the S&P Global French Services PMI rising to 55.5 in March 2023, the highest since May 2022, from 53.1 in February, above the market forecast of 52.5. Service firms reported higher workloads, hiring, and optimism while operating expenses rose sharply due to rising wages and general inflation. Joe Hayes, a senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the latest PMI "reflected well the underlying health of the French domestic economy, despite cost-of-living pressures, rising borrowing costs and recession fears weighing on consumer and business finances. pressure." - UK: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI falling to 52.8 in March 2023 from 53.5 in February, below market expectations of 53. New order growth accelerated due to stronger customer confidence, resilient demand for consumer services, and a boost to spending from lower inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, job creation in the service economy hit a three-month low. On the price front, service providers continued to report a much larger increase in input prices than manufacturing companies. Looking ahead, despite recent volatility in global financial markets, confidence in the services economy has remained unchanged since February. - UK: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in March 2023 from 49.3 in February, well below the 49.8 forecast. The data showed factory activity fell for an eighth month, with production and orders falling again. Meanwhile, manufacturers have cut headcount at an even faster pace. Meanwhile, cost pressures have eased, with many companies pointing to lower commodity prices and freight rates being passed on by suppliers. In addition, manufacturers reported improved supply conditions, with lead times shrinking the most since April 2009. Finally, business expectations increased amid hopes of a rebound in customer demand and a boost from improved supply chain performance. - UK: Flash data showed that the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI fell to 52.2 in March 2023 from an eight-month high of 53.1 in February, missing market expectations of 52.8. The latest data showed continued growth in the private sector, largely reflecting the strength of the services economy. New business received by service sector firms rose fastest in 12 months, although a shortage of workers held back growth. Manufacturing output fell in March, again weighed down by weak orders. Meanwhile, input price inflation fell to a two-year low in March, largely reflecting a sharp easing of cost pressures in manufacturing. Many companies point to lower commodity prices and falling shipping costs being passed on by suppliers. Manufacturers reported improved supply conditions, with lead times shrinking the most since April 2009. Looking ahead, confidence has risen to its highest level since March 2022. - EU: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global Eurozone manufacturing PMI falling to 47.1 in March 2023 from 48.5 in February, below market expectations of 49. The latest data showed that manufacturing output broadly stagnated for a second straight month, though that improved from the steady decline in the second half of last year. The auto sector was particularly strong, partly related to improving supply chains. Improved supply chains and lower demand further eased pressure on industrial input prices, which fell for the first time since July 2020. Meanwhile, job growth has held steady at a relatively slow pace, the slowest in the past two years. New orders fell faster for the 11th straight month, leading to the biggest backlog drop in four months. Existing output can only be sustained by cannibalizing previously placed orders, posing a downside risk to future output. - EU: According to preliminary estimates, the S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 54.1 in March 2023 from 52 in February, above market expectations of 51.9, the fastest expansion since May 2022. Growth was driven entirely by services, the largest expansion in 10 months (55.6 versus February's 53.7), offsetting a contraction among manufacturers (47.1 versus 48.5). Aggregate output rose during the period, helped by a further recovery in financial services and housing, despite recent concerns about instability in the banking sector. In addition, new orders rose for the second straight month, adding to the total backlog of work. Meanwhile, job growth hit a nine-month high. On the price front, a record easing of supply constraints, low demand, and a sharp drop in energy prices over the period pushed input prices down for the first time since July 2020. - EU: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI rose to 55.6 in March 2023 from 52.7 in February, beating market expectations of 52.5. Business activity rose for the third month, marking the strongest expansion since last May. A key development has been a further recovery in growth in the financial services sector, with real estate activity showing a marked upturn compared with late last year, despite recent concerns about banking stability and higher interest rates. Consumer services activity also recovered from a slump late last year, especially in tourism. New orders rose faster, causing backlogs to accumulate faster since last May, which should help support further growth in the coming months. Job growth increased to a 10-month high as businesses seek to keep up with rising demand. Finally, optimism about the year ahead has eased but remains well above levels seen at the end of last year. - GE: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P German global manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to 44.4 in March 2023 from 46.3 in February, well below the forecast of 47. The data showed factory activity fell for the ninth month, the sharpest contraction since the coronavirus outbreak in May 2020, largely as supplier delivery times surged to record highs. Meanwhile, manufacturing output and job creation were little changed, with orders falling more rapidly and unfinished business falling markedly. Meanwhile, factory gate fee inflation slowed to the lowest level since January 2021, overall input costs fell to the highest level since May 2020, orders fell, and supply bottlenecks eased amid softer raw material and energy prices and balanced material supply and demand, Leading commodity producers to cut purchase levels and reduce inputs. - FR: Preliminary estimates showed the S&P global manufacturing PMI edged to 47.7 in March 2023 from 47.4 in February but fell slightly short of a forecast of 48. The data showed factory activity fell for a second straight month, production fell for a tenth consecutive month, new orders continued to fall, and employment rose only slightly. Meanwhile, ample inventory levels at customers reportedly weigh on demand for manufactured goods. Lower sales led to another buildup of post-production inventories, while input inventories fell further as firms struggled to keep their material supplies in line with production plans. Meanwhile, improving supply conditions helped ease some inflationary pressures, with input costs rising only modestly, at their slowest pace in two-and-a-half years. Finally, manufacturers are pessimistic about their 12-month outlook for the first time since November. - TW: Taiwan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.58 percent in February 2023 from 3.6 percent the previous month, the lowest level since January 2001. Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed increased by 4,000 to 420,000, while the number of workers increased by 14,000 to 11.485 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased to 59.18% from 59.17% in January. - SW: Sweden's annual producer inflation rate fell to 9.3% in February 2023 from 11.8% in the previous month. It was the lowest rate of producer inflation since May 2021, driven by energy-related products (5.9% vs. 11.7% in January), capital goods (11.4% vs. 11.8%), and consumer goods (15.4% vs. 15.7%) The price increase has been moderate. Excluding energy-related products, producer prices rose 11.2%, slower than a 12.9% gain in the previous month. As a result, producer prices fell 1% on a monthly basis after falling 5.2% in January. - JP: In March 2022, the ANZ Japan Services PMI rose to 54.2 from 54.0 in February. It was the seventh straight month of growth in service sector activity and the strongest growth since October 2011, as ongoing government support for the sector continued and China lifted remaining COVID-19 restrictions, bringing Japan a new pace of change. Came for inbound tourism. The increase in new orders was the largest in ten months, and new export orders rose at the fastest pace since the series began in September 2014. At the same time, job growth accelerated while the backlog of jobs grew slower. On the cost front, input prices eased, but stronger demand conditions encouraged companies to raise selling prices for the eleventh straight month, the fastest pace since October 2019. Finally, confidence is more optimistic as the outbreak's impact recedes globally. - JP: Preliminary estimates show that in March 2023, the Bank of Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 48.6 from 47.7 in February, the lowest reading since September 2020. It was the fifth straight month of contraction in the sector, as output and new orders contracted at the weakest pace in five months while the decline in new export orders slowed. Meanwhile, companies increased employment levels for the 24th month in a row, even as job creation slowed and the backlog of jobs fell faster. On the pricing front, input cost inflation slowed to its lowest since August 2021. As a result, output cost inflation has also eased. In addition, supplier performance improved at the lowest rate in 29 months as supply pressures increased. Finally, business sentiment rose to a five-month high. - JP: A bulletin shows that in March 2023, the Bank of Japan's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.9 from 51.1 a month earlier. It was the third straight month of growth in private sector output and the fastest pace since June 2022, led by the largest service sector expansion since October 2011 as the Chinese government continued to support and cancel the Remaining COVID-19 restrictions, which brought inbound tourism to Japan. Meanwhile, manufacturing firms sent a further downbeat signal, contracting for the fifth straight month. On the other hand, both new orders and employment rose faster, foreign sales fell slower, while the reduction in backlogs of work accelerated. Furthermore, in terms of inflation, input costs fell while selling prices rose faster. Finally, confidence is strengthened. - JP: Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.1% year-on-year in February 2023, slowing sharply to its lowest level in five months from a more than 40-year high of 4.2% in January. The latest data were also in line with market expectations, reflecting easing inflationary pressures in other major economies amid slowing global growth. Still, core inflation topped the central bank's 2 percent target for the 11th straight month, although the BOJ now faces less pressure to normalize monetary policy. The BOJ kept its ultra-low interest rate policy unchanged in the March adjustment, the last policy meeting before Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retired. - JP: Food prices in Japan rose 7.5% year-on-year in February 2023, the biggest increase since September 1980, after rising 7.3% in the previous month. This was the 18th month in a row that food prices rose on the back of a rapidly depreciating yen. Mainly fresh fruit (3.7% vs. 2.8%), alcoholic beverages (6.1% vs. 6.0%), drinks (7.8% vs. 6.3%), dairy products, and eggs (11.7% vs. 7.0 percent), oils, fats, and seasonings (10.6 percent versus 9.8 percent), eating out (6.4 percent versus 5.9 percent) and cooked food (8.3 percent versus 7.7 percent). Meanwhile, inflation moderated in cereals (7.2% vs. 8.1%), fish and seafood (15.5% vs. 16.1%), fresh vegetables (0.7% vs. 3.1%), and meat (7.5% vs. 7.6%) ). - JP: Japan's annual inflation rate fell to 3.3% in February 2023 from 4.3% in January, the highest level in 41 years. The drop came as transport, and communications costs rose the least in 5 months (1.7% vs. 2.1% in January), while fuel, lighting, and water prices fell for the first time since May 2021 (-0.3% vs. 14.9%), mainly electricity (-5.5% vs. 20.2%) and natural gas (12.5% vs. 24.3%). In contrast, housing inflation remained unchanged (1.1%), while clothing (3.6% vs. 3.1%), furniture and household appliances (8.7% vs. 7.7%), healthcare (0.9% vs. 0.5%), education (0.9% vs. 0.7%), and miscellaneous (1.1% vs. 1.1%). Also, food costs have increased since September 1980 (7.5% vs. 7.3% in January). Core consumer prices rose 3.1 percent year-on-year, the weakest in five months, in line with forecasts but above the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target for the 11th straight month. Consumer prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in February, the first decline since October 2021. - BL: Belgium's business confidence barometer rose to -7.6 in March 2023 from -12.8 in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of improvement since it hit a two-year low of -16.6 in November 2022. Sentiment for business services swung to optimistic (8.4 vs. -7.6 in February) amid sharp rebounds in the sector's activity expectations and market demand. At the same time, pessimism eased for manufacturing (-10.8 vs. -14.8), trade (-21.6 vs. -24.4), and construction (-5 vs. -5.8 ).   LOOKING AHEAD: Week ahead: - The turmoil affecting the banking sector will continue to attract investors' attention. In the United States, Fed Vice Chairman for Oversight Michael S. Barr will testify before the Senate and the House. In addition, consumer income and spending, the PCE price index, and the final reading of Q4 GDP growth will be released. Elsewhere, the euro area, Germany, France, and Spain will publish inflation data. Finally, Ifo Business Climate and GfK Consumer Confidence will be in the spotlight in Germany.   Today, investors should watch out for the following important data: - JPY: SPPI y/y. - GBP: CBI Realized Sales, and BOE Gov Bailey Speaks. - EUR: German ifo Business Climate, M3 Money Supply y/y, Private Loans y/y, and German Buba President Nagel Speaks.   KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS: Кey factors in the stock and bond market are currently: - US: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell 11 basis points to 3.29% on Friday, the lowest level since September 2022, as turmoil in the banking sector continued and investors flocked to safety. Deutsche Bank shares have come under intense pressure since it announced the redemption of $1.5 billion of secondary notes due 2028, as its credit-default swaps soared to their highest level since they were first launched in 2019. News of the U.S. probes into Credit Suisse and UBS, as well as a sharp drop in shares of Deutsche Bank, also weighed on traders' sentiment. Meanwhile, the two-year yield fell more than 20 basis points to 3.59%. Bonds have been rallying since Wednesday after dovish comments from the Fed and a 25 basis point hike in its funds rate, signaling it is about to pause its tightening in response to recent risks to financial stability. - US: U.S. futures fell on Friday, with the Dow Jones futures contract down nearly 300 points, the S&P 500 down 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.4%, amid renewed concerns about the global banking system. Bank stocks came under intense pressure in the pre-market session, with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup all down. Deutsche Bank's U.S.-listed shares fell nearly 8% in premarket trading after the bank said it would redeem $1.5 billion of secondary notes due 2028, with its credit-default swaps surging to the highest level since its launch in 2019. highest level. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating UBS and Credit Suisse into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions. Bank stocks fell despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying she was prepared to take further steps to protect deposits if needed. All three major indexes are up nearly 1% so far last week. - UK: UK 10-year gilt yields fell below 3.2%, near their lowest level in almost seven weeks, as concerns over the global financial sector fueled demand for government bonds. Meanwhile, the latest data showed continued growth in UK private sector output, largely reflecting a strong service economy performance. The PMI survey showed that in the first three months of 2023, the UK economy grew by 0.2% from the previous quarter. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected, and said further hikes might be necessary if there is evidence of more persistent pressure. - AU: Preliminary estimates show that in March 2023, the Australian Judo Bank manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 from 50.5 in the previous month. The report said that new orders and output fell in the worst contraction since May 2020 as rising interest rates and inflationary pressures weighed on demand. Manufacturing output shrank for a fourth straight month, driven by a decline in new orders, whose pace of exposure has accelerated since August 2021. Labor demand continues to ease while Australian businesses look to expand workforce levels in early 2023. Meanwhile, the overall level of business confidence fell further to its lowest level in almost three years. - AU: Flash estimates show the Judo Bank Australia Services PMI at 48.2 in March 2023, down from 50.7 in February. This marks the fifth month of contraction in the past six months, following expansion in February. New business in the services sector deteriorated at the fastest rate since September 2021, with high prices and market conditions weighing on demand. International demand rose for the third straight month. Input cost pressures eased as overall demand fell and labor force expansion slowed. Business sentiment remained upbeat, with confidence levels hitting a two-month high and hopes for the outlook to improve. - AU: Flash estimates show that in March 2023, the Judo Bank-Australia Composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.1 from 50.6 in the previous month. It was the lowest reading since December 2022, as activity in Australia's manufacturing and services sectors fell, leading to a broad deterioration in private sector output. Business activity contracted faster in manufacturing than in services. The fall in aggregate private sector output was due to lower demand as higher interest rates, higher inflation, and weaker economic conditions affected new Australian goods and services businesses. The foreign market also shrank on weak manufacturing export orders. - EU: Government bond yields in Europe fell for a second session on Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Bund falling nearly 20 basis points to 2.02%, its lowest in almost two months, driven by a flight to safety as banks came under renewed pressure and investors reduced bets on future rate hikes. News of a US investigation into Credit Suisse and UBS and a sharp drop in Deutsche Bank shares weighed on traders' confidence. In addition, Deutsche Bank suffered losses after announcing the redemption of $1.5 billion in a set of Tier 2 notes maturing in 2028, and its credit default swaps surged to their highest level since they were first introduced in 2019. At the same time, Bets on prolonged monetary tightening from the ECB eased after the Federal Reserve signaled just one more rate hike for 2023. Meanwhile, the German 2-year yield fell 21 basis points to 2.29%.   LEADING MARKET SECTORS: - Strong sectors: Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Real Estate. - Weak sectors: Financials, Consumer Discretionary.   TOP CURRENCY & COMMODITIES MARKET DRIVERS:  Кey factors in the currency and commodities market are currently: - EUR: The euro fell nearly 1 percent to $1.07 on Friday, moving further away from a seven-week high touched on Wednesday, as concerns about the banking sector's health again weighed on investors' risk appetite. News of the U.S. investigations into Credit Suisse and UBS and a sharp drop in Deutsche Bank shares fueled deeper concerns in the banking sector. In addition, Deutsche Bank suffered losses after announcing the redemption of $1.5 billion of secondary notes due 2028, with its credit-default swaps surging to their highest level since they were first launched in 2019. Meanwhile, preliminary PMIs from France, Germany, and the eurozone pointed to strong services and fragile manufacturing sectors in March. On monetary policy, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently said, "if inflation develops as expected, this should not, in my view, mark the end of the sequence of rate hikes," suggesting that the ECB will further hike. - GBP: Sterling fell below $1.22 after a report that UBS and Credit Suisse were under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions, two sessions rallied on renewed worries in the banking sector. Still, sterling was on track for a second straight week of gains after the Bank of England raised its key bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, largely as expected and leaving the door open for further hikes if inflation persists. The latest data showed that UK private sector output continued to grow, largely reflecting the strength of the services economy. The PMI survey showed that in the first three months of 2023, the UK economy grew by 0.2% from the previous quarter. - CNY: The offshore yuan depreciated by more than 6.83 per dollar, retreating from a five-week high, as concerns over a global banking crisis and brewing U.S.-China tensions weighed on sentiment. U.S. lawmakers recently questioned TikTok’s chief executive about China’s potential influence on the platform. At the same time, the Chinese military said it drove away a U.S. destroyer that entered waters near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. On the monetary policy front, the yuan has come under increased liquidity pressure after the People's Bank of China announced its first surprise cut to the bank's reserve requirement ratio this year to help the economy recover. The central bank also kept key lending rates steady in its March rate fixes, with the prime rate for one-year loans at 3.65 percent and the maximum speed for five-year loans at 4.3 percent. - USD: The U.S. dollar index was steady at around 102.6 on Friday, with investors still assessing the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as the central bank aims to strike a balance between fighting inflation and lingering concerns about a banking crisis. Earlier last week, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate hike and signaled there would be only one more hike. Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials would not cut rates this year and are prepared to extend the tightening cycle if necessary. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated on Thursday that the U.S. government is ready to take further action to protect savers. Investors now look ahead to Friday's U.S. durable goods, manufacturing, and services data and speeches from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. The U.S. dollar index is set to fall more than 1% last week. - SLV: Silver futures soared past $23 an ounce in late March, the most in nearly two months, supported by dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and a renewed flight to safety amid bank instability. The Fed's projections suggest that there is only a quarter-point hike in interest rates left in its tightening cycle, indicating more caution from the FOMC to address the recent stress on the US financial sector. In addition, the continuing turmoil for US banks triggered a flight to the safety of bullion after US Treasury Secretary Yellen denied the government would protect all deposits in the US banking system. On the supply side, continued outflows of bullion inventories continued to support silver prices. - COP: Copper futures settled around $4.1 a pound in late March, the highest in three weeks, as expectations of strong demand and concerns about lower supply offset the greenback's sharp rebound. New data showed that China's copper demand rose 11% yearly in February, supported by increased infrastructure construction and new energy investments as it reopened its economy. Meanwhile, lead producer Peru's mining exports fell nearly 20% annually in January on widespread protests, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained lower. Running out of inventories in Shanghai and strong demand prompted leading commodity trader Trafigura to predict that copper prices could soar to a record high this year, - IRN: Prices for iron ore cargoes with an iron ore content of 63.5% for delivery to Tianjin fell to $122 per ton at the end of March, the lowest in two months, driven by weaker demand by steel producers and increased speculative price controls. Reports indicate that China's top producer will reduce its domestic steel production by 2.5% in 2023, marking the third consecutive annual decline. Immediate bidding activity is also expected to remain subdued as pollution regulations forced major steelmaking centers Tangshan and Handan to reduce capacity. Meanwhile, China's National Development and Reform Commission has issued further warnings against speculative increases in iron ore prices, saying it will crack down on false information by producers and hoarding by traders. Meanwhile, efforts to shore up infrastructure and construction have limited the decline,   CHART OF THE DAY: Gold prices rose to near $2,000 an ounce in late March, a one-year high, and were on course for a fourth straight week of gains, supported by a fresh flight to safety on concerns about the banking crisis. Deutsche Bank said it would buy back $1.5 billion in a set of senior notes maturing in 2028, as its credit default swaps jumped to their highest level since they were introduced in 2019. At the same time, Bloomberg reported that UBS and Credit Suisse are under scrutiny in a US Justice Department investigation into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Yellen said authorities were ready to take further steps to protect deposits if needed. This week, the US central bank raised its interest rate by 25bps, as expected.         Long-term Channels Trading Strategy: - Gold XAUUSD -; Chart with time-frame (D1); The primary Resistance with a potential (consolidation area) is around ~ ( 2049 ),  and the primary Support with a potential (consolidation area) is around ~ ( 1941 ).  Therefore, the next most probable price movement is a (sideways) trend. *see details on the chart.