• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

 

European stocks rebounded on Tuesday to close higher as concerns about the spillover effects of China's Evergrande crisis eased. At the same time, the music brand Universal Music Group surged 35% on its first day of listing. European stocks recorded their most significant decline in two months on Monday. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.0% on Tuesday after it fell to a two-month low on the previous trading day. Travel, media, mining, and energy stocks led the gains, while the German DAX index rebounded from its lowest level since the end of July, closing 1.43% higher. Compared with the US market, the European market is better at holding today's gains. Universal Music Group soared 35.7% on its first trading day, bringing its market value to more than 46 billion euros ($54 billion). The group's singers include Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift. The global market was turbulent on Monday as the market feared that Evergrande, the world’s largest real estate developer, might default, which would harm China’s real estate industry, banks, and the global economy. China Evergrande currently has a debt of US$305 billion. This week’s focus is also on the policy meetings of several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors expect some of these central banks to signal ease stimulus measures to curb high inflation. The British FTSE 100 index closed up 1.11%, and the French CAC-40 index rose 1.5%. U.S. stocks rebounded, investors watched the Fed start a two-day policy meeting later. The S&P 500 is currently up 0.3%, while Nasdaq continues to outperform with an increase of 0.7%. Walt Disney shares are facing a decline of 3.6% in the middle of a presentation at a Goldman Sachs conference. The company has warned that it is experiencing delays in producing the Delta variant and experiencing headwinds in Latin America by trying to mobilize partners. However, Disney remained confident about long-term submarine growth. In the future, Adobe and FedEx will display their earnings after closing. The Japanese stock market fell on Tuesday following the weakness of the global market. Investors were selling risky assets because of fears that China Evergrande might default. However, some low buying orders helped limit the decline. The Nikkei index closed down 2.17% at 29,839.71 points, the most significant deterioration since June 21. The Topix Stock Index fell 1.7% to 2,064.55 points. Concerns about the possibility of Evergrande’s default are increasing. On Monday, the global market oscillated, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their most significant single-day percentage declines since May. However, market participants indicated that the impact of selling on the Japanese market is limited. Heavyweight SoftBank Group dragged down the Nikkei index the most, falling 4.98%, then chip equipment supplier Tokyo Electronics fell 2.45%, air-conditioning manufacturer Daikin Industry fell 4.71%. In the Nikkei index, 14 stocks rose, and 210 stocks fell. Last Sunday, September 15, gas prices in Europe (Dutch Hub TTF) reached a record 79,305 euros per megawatt-hour, roughly corresponding to $ 980 per thousand cubic meters. The latest correction is 24%, but from 60 euros / MWh came out of space and quotes, which returned for the state on Tuesday, September 21, in the area of $ 900 per cubic meter. At present, European gas storage facilities are 72% full, compared to 94% at this time of year. On average, for the current time of year, the full storage of storage is 88%. The consequences of the European energy crisis can be very diverse. Thus, the British company Ocado Group perfectly offers positions for frozen products to customers, and the British Association of Meat Processors warns of the possible shutdown of businesses within two weeks: for example, at such a time with enough CO2 reserves. In the industries, there is a shortage of dioxide, which is used in this number in the packaging of products to prolong their upper environment and the production of "dry ice." This Sunday, a case in what produces comfortable CF Industries Holdings is closing British convenience plants due to rising natural gas values. Dioxide was a by-product. Competitor Yara International ASA has announced that it is cutting production capacity in Europe. Goldman Sachs analysts have called for prevention that a cold winter could increase oil speeds and quotes Brent Goldman's target level, which is forecast at $ 80 / barrel. On Thursday 2021. According to the investment bank, the colder winter may stimulate oil to 900 thousand barrels per day. Analysts at Bank of America Global Research have warned that they are ready to review their targets for the oil price, as the situation is stored in favor of faster-reaching oil prices at $ 100 / barrel. Such a price in Bank of America will initially come out in September 2022 but now does not rule out that it may be reached in the first quarter. Now, financial market participants are focused on the risky default of the Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, a fearful effect dominated by developers. However, the growth of energy sources can fully influence the more vital factors of lower markets, stimulate inflation, and the closure of central banks faster. It is now necessary to reduce credit policy. Evergrande can save (if it wishes) the Chinese government selected a restructuring scenario. This warm winter could save Europe from the energy crisis, but it is impossible to negotiate a contract. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 300 points early, hit a low of 23,771 points, and then rebounded, but the range was limited. Then the trend repeated, holding 24,000 points for half a day, closing at 24,022 points, down 77 points, or 0.32%, and the main board turnover was 66.8 billion yuan. Some local real estate stocks and Macau gaming stocks rebounded. SHKP, Cheung Kong, and New World Development rose more than 1%. Financial stocks developed individually. AIA rose by more than 4%. Ping An Insurance was still under selling pressure and fell by more than 3% in half a day. The trend of Evergrande is fluctuating. In addition, Country Garden surged nearly 7%, making it the best performing blue-chip stock.

 

• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:

Looking at the last economic data:

- CN: The global market was turbulent as the market feared that Evergrande, the world’s largest real estate developer, might default, which would harm China’s real estate industry, banks, and the global economy.

- CN: On Tuesday, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association (CISA) said that as weather conditions improve and the new crown epidemic is brought under control, iron ore unloading difficulties and port congestion may be eased in mid-to-late August. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the number of iron ore ships stranded in the port has increased recently due to poor weather conditions, restrictions to contain the epidemic, and the simultaneous arrival of ships, disrupting the transportation of this crucial steelmaking raw material. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Refinitiv, as of August 11, iron ore ships waiting to unload at Chinese ports carried a total of 17.46 million tons of iron ore. Since July, the price of the most-traded iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has soared 22.7%. The China Iron and Steel Association stated that it had reported the problem to the Ministry of Transport. As a result, the Ministry of Transport is taking measures to help ease the congestion.

- CN: China Telecom said that the parent company, China Telecom Group, plans to increase the holdings of its shares by no less than RMB 4 billion in the next 12 months. China Telecom issued an announcement stating that the parent company’s increase in holdings this time is based on confidence in the company’s future development prospects and recognition of its investment value. The announcement also pointed out that there is no price range for this increase in holdings. Instead, the parent company will gradually implement the increase plan based on reasonable judgments on the stock price of listed companies, stock price fluctuations, and the overall trend of the capital market. China Telecom Group holds approximately 57.38 billion A shares of China Telecom, accounting for 62.82% of the total issued shares.

- RU: Shares of gold mining companies on Monday against the background of the sale performed a protective function and were among the leaders in growth among index securities. However, today, "Petropavlovsk," "Polymetal," and "Polyus" in the group of outsiders, although in the spot market, gold prices continue to rise, attacked $ 1780 / ounce and left no hope of regaining the psychological level of $ 1800 / ounce.

- RU: MMK became the growth leader among index stocks, and Phosagro was also present in the group of stocks that rose the most on Tuesday. Phosagro must be bought by September 22 to count on dividends of 156 rubles per share. MMK must have time to buy before September 23 to expect a dividend of 3.53 rubles. per share. The projected dividend yield for 2021 for Phosagro is about 8%, and for 2022 - almost 10%. At the same time, MMK's projected dividend yield for 2021 is more than 20% and about the same for 2022.

- RU: Shares of Gazprom and Rosneft were also in the group of leaders. The Russian government has decided to approve Rosneft's offer and allow joint gas supplies to the EU with Gazprom. Rosneft is ready to export 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year to the EU under an agreement with Gazprom from 2022 through the main export pipelines built by Gazprom. The decision looks positive for both companies, as it will bypass the rules of the third energy directive of the European Union and make full use of the capacity of Nord Stream 2 after its launch. At present, European gas storage facilities are 72% full, compared to 94% at the same time a year earlier. On average, for the current time of year, the occupancy rate is 88%. The situation is such that only warm weather during the heating season in the Northern Hemisphere will stabilize gas prices in Europe. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said last Friday that the injection lag was 30 billion cubic meters and that it was almost impossible to close the gap.

- RU: From September 27, 2021, the Moscow Exchange will suspend trading in shares of the ChTPZ Group, included in the "Third Level" section, in connection with the issuer's request to repurchase shares. The repurchase price was 318.26 rubles per share.

- RU: The Moscow Exchange intends to launch morning trading from 7:00 Moscow on the stock market on December 6. In addition, the Moscow Stock Exchange is also laying the technological opportunity to launch trades in exchange-traded mutual funds from now on.

- US: The US current account deficit rose by 0.5% in the second quarter to $190.3 billion, a 14-year high, as companies increased imports to replenish inventories. The US current account deficit in the first quarter was revised down to US$189.4 billion.

- US: The start of new housing construction in the United States rose by 3.9% in August, reaching 1.615 million at an annual rate, exceeding market expectations. Building permits increased by 6% in August, reaching 1.728 million at an annual rate, exceeding market expectations.

- SW: The Riksbank maintained its monetary policy unchanged and stated that interest rates would remain at zero throughout the forecast period, in line with market expectations. The central bank said in the statement that monetary policy needs to remain expansionary to keep inflation close to the target.

- HK: Sun Hung Kai Properties stated that it has recently noticed media claims that "the central government is putting pressure on Hong Kong real estate developers." SHKP has never received any news from the media, and SHKP has never approved of monopolizing the market. SHKP stated that it has been fulfilling its environmental, social, and corporate governance commitments, actively cooperating with the SAR government, participating in land sharing plans, and building large-scale transitional houses. SHKP also said that with the implementation of the National Security Law and the implementation of the new electoral system, Hong Kong had entered a new stage of "governance and prosperity." The economy has continued to recover. With the support of the country's "14th Five-Year Plan", SHKP has been optimistic about the development of Hong Kong and the Mainland for a long time. Development opportunities will continue to increase investment in the two places to help Hong Kong integrate into the country's overall development.

 

• LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors will receive:

- USD: Existing-Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and FOMC Press Conference.

- JPY: Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Policy Rate, and BOJ Press Conference.

- AUD: MI Leading Index m/m, and RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks.

 

• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

- The yield of U.S. Treasury bonds dropped significantly, and China Evergrande’s default risk triggered selling pressure on global stock markets, and investors bought safe-haven bonds. As a result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell as low as 1.297%, down 7.3 basis points. Likewise, the 30-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.9% to as low as 1.834%, down 7.6 basis points.

- Russian shares ended trading on Tuesday, September 21, on a positive note. The Moscow Exchange index closed in a symbolic plus + 0.02%, but the RTS grew more convincingly due to the strengthening of the ruble.

- The external background on Tuesday was positive. Shares in Europe and the United States resumed after a drawdown on Monday. The Brent oil prices could not fix above $ 75 / barrel. And continued the decline while trying to stay above $ 74 per barrel. Gas prices in Europe have resumed growth and are trading near record highs ($ 900), keeping in mind the extreme of $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters. At the same time, reputable banks predict an increase in demand for oil against the background of expensive gas. Goldman expects $ 80 / barrel. By the end of the year (Brent), Bank of America warns that $ 100 / barrel. It can be achieved in the first quarter. However, the draft budget of the Russian Federation implies that global oil demand may not return to pre-pandemic values in 2019. This news could stimulate sales pressure in the black gold market.

- Pfizer shares traded in a number: the company and its partner BioNTech said their Covid vaccines were highly influential in children aged 5 to 11 years. The results were obtained after an extensive study involving 2,268 patients, and the new data will be submitted to the FDA. The approval of Pfizer / BioNTech vaccines for this age group helps to expand the range of vaccinated people, increase the level of collective immunity, and the ability to fight Covid in general.

- Shares of Apogee Enterprises (APOG) fell to 7.3%: the company expects a severe increase in production costs by the end of the financial year.
- Shares of Bill.com (BILL) fell 5.4%: the company is conducting an additional issue.
- After the weak quarter of sales and profit reports, shares of Cracker Barrel (CBRL) fell 3.7%.
- Shares of General Mills (GIS) fell 2.1%: Morgan Stanley cancels equity rating to "lower market."
- Shares of Oshkosh Corp. (OSK) are down 6.2%: Jefferies heats a purchase recommendation. However, the bank's analysts believe that pricing problems do not allow the company to benefit from the strong challenge for its products.
- Shares of Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) rose to 7.2% after the publication of good results from the study of its drug.
- Tegna shares (TGNA) added 5.4%: the New York Post reported that Apollo Global Management and Standard General are ready to buy the company for $ 22 per share.
- Shares of Warner Music Group (WMG) rose 6%: Credit Suisse raises paper rating from "neutral" to "better market."

 

• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:

- High: Energy, Real Estate, Information Technology.

- Low: Industrials, Utilities.

 

• TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS:

- The foreign exchange market rebalancing before the Fed - The dollar strengthened in the Big Ten against the Chinese-oriented Australian and New Zealand currencies on Tuesday. According to S&P, Chinese developer Evergrande is likely to fail, not expecting the Chinese government to "provide direct support" for state-building. In this case, oil currencies (Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar) and protected currencies (franc and yen) rose against US competition. On the other hand, the euro remained virtually unchanged in the price of the US currency. Here, the factors for the dollar's decline have reduced the forms of income of the US Treasury Department. In this situation, the situation has a more robust neutral redistribution before announcing the Fed's decisions on Wednesday night. The ruble was in the top three in growth against the dollar among 24 emerging foreign exchange markets. Moreover, most emerging markets rose on Tuesday. Here, too, we see a rebalancing of portfolios before the Fed, so that currencies that were recently under the most influential brands have risen in price. EUR / USD -1.1724 (-0.01%), with the beginning of the year -4.0%; GBP / USD -1.3658 (+ 0.01%), with the beginning of the year -0.1%; USD / JPY-109.32 (-0.06%), with the beginning of the year + 5.9%; Dollar index-93,201 (-0.08%), with the beginning of the year + 3.6%; USD / RUB -73,011 (-0.40%), with the beginning of the year -1.1%; EUR / RUB -85.6043 (-0.64%), with the beginning of the year -5.2%

 

• CHART OF THE DAY:

The U.S. dollar fell slightly from its high in the past month, and the global market rebounded on Tuesday. The previous day was shrouded in risk aversion due to the uncertainty of China Evergrande's solvency. Investors are currently waiting for the US Federal Reserve. The results of the two-day policy meeting of the Board of Governors (Federal Reserve). After hitting the highest level since August 23 on Monday, the U.S. dollar moved up and down in the flat market on Tuesday. After the initial gains of Wall Street index stocks cooled down, the U.S. dollar once moved higher. Investors pay attention to the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday to find any clues as to when the Fed will begin to scale back its large-scale bond purchase plan. This week, many central banks around the world will issue policy statements. The market is trying to understand whether this reversal on Tuesday will continue. If risk appetite continues to improve, the U.S. dollar will fall further from its current level. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.019. It was as high as 93.455 on Monday. The euro fell 0.01% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1724. Other safe-haven currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc strengthened on Monday, as financial markets were nervous about the impact of China's possible default by Evergrande. On Tuesday, Xu Jiayin, chairman of China Evergrande Group, tried to increase confidence in the troubled real estate company, but the concerns mentioned above overshadowed its impact. There is no sign that Beijing will intervene to prevent any domino effect in the global economy. The offshore renminbi fell to 6.4817 yuan against the U.S. dollar. Before the Evergrande debt crisis shocked the market, the U.S. dollar was supported before the Fed meeting this week. Economists interviewed predicted that policymakers would signal that the Fed would postpone reducing its quantitative easing program until November.• U.S. dollar Index (DXY) - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~93.40 & 93.77, Support (target zone) around ~ 92.48 & 91.81

 

Continued skepticism due to ongoing uncertainty around Evergrande, infrastructure, and debt cap

• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

 

European stocks rebounded on Tuesday to close higher as concerns about the spillover effects of China's Evergrande crisis eased. At the same time, the music brand Universal Music Group surged 35% on its first day of listing. European stocks recorded their most significant decline in two months on Monday. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.0% on Tuesday after it fell to a two-month low on the previous trading day. Travel, media, mining, and energy stocks led the gains, while the German DAX index rebounded from its lowest level since the end of July, closing 1.43% higher. Compared with the US market, the European market is better at holding today's gains. Universal Music Group soared 35.7% on its first trading day, bringing its market value to more than 46 billion euros ($54 billion). The group's singers include Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift. The global market was turbulent on Monday as the market feared that Evergrande, the world’s largest real estate developer, might default, which would harm China’s real estate industry, banks, and the global economy. China Evergrande currently has a debt of US$305 billion. This week’s focus is also on the policy meetings of several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors expect some of these central banks to signal ease stimulus measures to curb high inflation. The British FTSE 100 index closed up 1.11%, and the French CAC-40 index rose 1.5%. U.S. stocks rebounded, investors watched the Fed start a two-day policy meeting later. The S&P 500 is currently up 0.3%, while Nasdaq continues to outperform with an increase of 0.7%. Walt Disney shares are facing a decline of 3.6% in the middle of a presentation at a Goldman Sachs conference. The company has warned that it is experiencing delays in producing the Delta variant and experiencing headwinds in Latin America by trying to mobilize partners. However, Disney remained confident about long-term submarine growth. In the future, Adobe and FedEx will display their earnings after closing. The Japanese stock market fell on Tuesday following the weakness of the global market. Investors were selling risky assets because of fears that China Evergrande might default. However, some low buying orders helped limit the decline. The Nikkei index closed down 2.17% at 29,839.71 points, the most significant deterioration since June 21. The Topix Stock Index fell 1.7% to 2,064.55 points. Concerns about the possibility of Evergrande’s default are increasing. On Monday, the global market oscillated, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their most significant single-day percentage declines since May. However, market participants indicated that the impact of selling on the Japanese market is limited. Heavyweight SoftBank Group dragged down the Nikkei index the most, falling 4.98%, then chip equipment supplier Tokyo Electronics fell 2.45%, air-conditioning manufacturer Daikin Industry fell 4.71%. In the Nikkei index, 14 stocks rose, and 210 stocks fell. Last Sunday, September 15, gas prices in Europe (Dutch Hub TTF) reached a record 79,305 euros per megawatt-hour, roughly corresponding to $ 980 per thousand cubic meters. The latest correction is 24%, but from 60 euros / MWh came out of space and quotes, which returned for the state on Tuesday, September 21, in the area of $ 900 per cubic meter. At present, European gas storage facilities are 72% full, compared to 94% at this time of year. On average, for the current time of year, the full storage of storage is 88%. The consequences of the European energy crisis can be very diverse. Thus, the British company Ocado Group perfectly offers positions for frozen products to customers, and the British Association of Meat Processors warns of the possible shutdown of businesses within two weeks: for example, at such a time with enough CO2 reserves. In the industries, there is a shortage of dioxide, which is used in this number in the packaging of products to prolong their upper environment and the production of "dry ice." This Sunday, a case in what produces comfortable CF Industries Holdings is closing British convenience plants due to rising natural gas values. Dioxide was a by-product. Competitor Yara International ASA has announced that it is cutting production capacity in Europe. Goldman Sachs analysts have called for prevention that a cold winter could increase oil speeds and quotes Brent Goldman's target level, which is forecast at $ 80 / barrel. On Thursday 2021. According to the investment bank, the colder winter may stimulate oil to 900 thousand barrels per day. Analysts at Bank of America Global Research have warned that they are ready to review their targets for the oil price, as the situation is stored in favor of faster-reaching oil prices at $ 100 / barrel. Such a price in Bank of America will initially come out in September 2022 but now does not rule out that it may be reached in the first quarter. Now, financial market participants are focused on the risky default of the Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, a fearful effect dominated by developers. However, the growth of energy sources can fully influence the more vital factors of lower markets, stimulate inflation, and the closure of central banks faster. It is now necessary to reduce credit policy. Evergrande can save (if it wishes) the Chinese government selected a restructuring scenario. This warm winter could save Europe from the energy crisis, but it is impossible to negotiate a contract. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 300 points early, hit a low of 23,771 points, and then rebounded, but the range was limited. Then the trend repeated, holding 24,000 points for half a day, closing at 24,022 points, down 77 points, or 0.32%, and the main board turnover was 66.8 billion yuan. Some local real estate stocks and Macau gaming stocks rebounded. SHKP, Cheung Kong, and New World Development rose more than 1%. Financial stocks developed individually. AIA rose by more than 4%. Ping An Insurance was still under selling pressure and fell by more than 3% in half a day. The trend of Evergrande is fluctuating. In addition, Country Garden surged nearly 7%, making it the best performing blue-chip stock.

 

• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:

Looking at the last economic data:

- CN: The global market was turbulent as the market feared that Evergrande, the world’s largest real estate developer, might default, which would harm China’s real estate industry, banks, and the global economy.

- CN: On Tuesday, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association (CISA) said that as weather conditions improve and the new crown epidemic is brought under control, iron ore unloading difficulties and port congestion may be eased in mid-to-late August. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the number of iron ore ships stranded in the port has increased recently due to poor weather conditions, restrictions to contain the epidemic, and the simultaneous arrival of ships, disrupting the transportation of this crucial steelmaking raw material. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Refinitiv, as of August 11, iron ore ships waiting to unload at Chinese ports carried a total of 17.46 million tons of iron ore. Since July, the price of the most-traded iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has soared 22.7%. The China Iron and Steel Association stated that it had reported the problem to the Ministry of Transport. As a result, the Ministry of Transport is taking measures to help ease the congestion.

- CN: China Telecom said that the parent company, China Telecom Group, plans to increase the holdings of its shares by no less than RMB 4 billion in the next 12 months. China Telecom issued an announcement stating that the parent company’s increase in holdings this time is based on confidence in the company’s future development prospects and recognition of its investment value. The announcement also pointed out that there is no price range for this increase in holdings. Instead, the parent company will gradually implement the increase plan based on reasonable judgments on the stock price of listed companies, stock price fluctuations, and the overall trend of the capital market. China Telecom Group holds approximately 57.38 billion A shares of China Telecom, accounting for 62.82% of the total issued shares.

- RU: Shares of gold mining companies on Monday against the background of the sale performed a protective function and were among the leaders in growth among index securities. However, today, "Petropavlovsk," "Polymetal," and "Polyus" in the group of outsiders, although in the spot market, gold prices continue to rise, attacked $ 1780 / ounce and left no hope of regaining the psychological level of $ 1800 / ounce.

- RU: MMK became the growth leader among index stocks, and Phosagro was also present in the group of stocks that rose the most on Tuesday. Phosagro must be bought by September 22 to count on dividends of 156 rubles per share. MMK must have time to buy before September 23 to expect a dividend of 3.53 rubles. per share. The projected dividend yield for 2021 for Phosagro is about 8%, and for 2022 - almost 10%. At the same time, MMK's projected dividend yield for 2021 is more than 20% and about the same for 2022.

- RU: Shares of Gazprom and Rosneft were also in the group of leaders. The Russian government has decided to approve Rosneft's offer and allow joint gas supplies to the EU with Gazprom. Rosneft is ready to export 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year to the EU under an agreement with Gazprom from 2022 through the main export pipelines built by Gazprom. The decision looks positive for both companies, as it will bypass the rules of the third energy directive of the European Union and make full use of the capacity of Nord Stream 2 after its launch. At present, European gas storage facilities are 72% full, compared to 94% at the same time a year earlier. On average, for the current time of year, the occupancy rate is 88%. The situation is such that only warm weather during the heating season in the Northern Hemisphere will stabilize gas prices in Europe. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said last Friday that the injection lag was 30 billion cubic meters and that it was almost impossible to close the gap.

- RU: From September 27, 2021, the Moscow Exchange will suspend trading in shares of the ChTPZ Group, included in the "Third Level" section, in connection with the issuer's request to repurchase shares. The repurchase price was 318.26 rubles per share.

- RU: The Moscow Exchange intends to launch morning trading from 7:00 Moscow on the stock market on December 6. In addition, the Moscow Stock Exchange is also laying the technological opportunity to launch trades in exchange-traded mutual funds from now on.

- US: The US current account deficit rose by 0.5% in the second quarter to $190.3 billion, a 14-year high, as companies increased imports to replenish inventories. The US current account deficit in the first quarter was revised down to US$189.4 billion.

- US: The start of new housing construction in the United States rose by 3.9% in August, reaching 1.615 million at an annual rate, exceeding market expectations. Building permits increased by 6% in August, reaching 1.728 million at an annual rate, exceeding market expectations.

- SW: The Riksbank maintained its monetary policy unchanged and stated that interest rates would remain at zero throughout the forecast period, in line with market expectations. The central bank said in the statement that monetary policy needs to remain expansionary to keep inflation close to the target.

- HK: Sun Hung Kai Properties stated that it has recently noticed media claims that "the central government is putting pressure on Hong Kong real estate developers." SHKP has never received any news from the media, and SHKP has never approved of monopolizing the market. SHKP stated that it has been fulfilling its environmental, social, and corporate governance commitments, actively cooperating with the SAR government, participating in land sharing plans, and building large-scale transitional houses. SHKP also said that with the implementation of the National Security Law and the implementation of the new electoral system, Hong Kong had entered a new stage of "governance and prosperity." The economy has continued to recover. With the support of the country's "14th Five-Year Plan", SHKP has been optimistic about the development of Hong Kong and the Mainland for a long time. Development opportunities will continue to increase investment in the two places to help Hong Kong integrate into the country's overall development.

 

• LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors will receive:

- USD: Existing-Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and FOMC Press Conference.

- JPY: Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Policy Rate, and BOJ Press Conference.

- AUD: MI Leading Index m/m, and RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks.

 

• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

- The yield of U.S. Treasury bonds dropped significantly, and China Evergrande’s default risk triggered selling pressure on global stock markets, and investors bought safe-haven bonds. As a result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell as low as 1.297%, down 7.3 basis points. Likewise, the 30-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.9% to as low as 1.834%, down 7.6 basis points.

- Russian shares ended trading on Tuesday, September 21, on a positive note. The Moscow Exchange index closed in a symbolic plus + 0.02%, but the RTS grew more convincingly due to the strengthening of the ruble.

- The external background on Tuesday was positive. Shares in Europe and the United States resumed after a drawdown on Monday. The Brent oil prices could not fix above $ 75 / barrel. And continued the decline while trying to stay above $ 74 per barrel. Gas prices in Europe have resumed growth and are trading near record highs ($ 900), keeping in mind the extreme of $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters. At the same time, reputable banks predict an increase in demand for oil against the background of expensive gas. Goldman expects $ 80 / barrel. By the end of the year (Brent), Bank of America warns that $ 100 / barrel. It can be achieved in the first quarter. However, the draft budget of the Russian Federation implies that global oil demand may not return to pre-pandemic values in 2019. This news could stimulate sales pressure in the black gold market.

- Pfizer shares traded in a number: the company and its partner BioNTech said their Covid vaccines were highly influential in children aged 5 to 11 years. The results were obtained after an extensive study involving 2,268 patients, and the new data will be submitted to the FDA. The approval of Pfizer / BioNTech vaccines for this age group helps to expand the range of vaccinated people, increase the level of collective immunity, and the ability to fight Covid in general.

- Shares of Apogee Enterprises (APOG) fell to 7.3%: the company expects a severe increase in production costs by the end of the financial year.
- Shares of Bill.com (BILL) fell 5.4%: the company is conducting an additional issue.
- After the weak quarter of sales and profit reports, shares of Cracker Barrel (CBRL) fell 3.7%.
- Shares of General Mills (GIS) fell 2.1%: Morgan Stanley cancels equity rating to "lower market."
- Shares of Oshkosh Corp. (OSK) are down 6.2%: Jefferies heats a purchase recommendation. However, the bank's analysts believe that pricing problems do not allow the company to benefit from the strong challenge for its products.
- Shares of Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) rose to 7.2% after the publication of good results from the study of its drug.
- Tegna shares (TGNA) added 5.4%: the New York Post reported that Apollo Global Management and Standard General are ready to buy the company for $ 22 per share.
- Shares of Warner Music Group (WMG) rose 6%: Credit Suisse raises paper rating from "neutral" to "better market."

 

• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:

- High: Energy, Real Estate, Information Technology.

- Low: Industrials, Utilities.

 

• TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS:

- The foreign exchange market rebalancing before the Fed - The dollar strengthened in the Big Ten against the Chinese-oriented Australian and New Zealand currencies on Tuesday. According to S&P, Chinese developer Evergrande is likely to fail, not expecting the Chinese government to "provide direct support" for state-building. In this case, oil currencies (Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar) and protected currencies (franc and yen) rose against US competition. On the other hand, the euro remained virtually unchanged in the price of the US currency. Here, the factors for the dollar's decline have reduced the forms of income of the US Treasury Department. In this situation, the situation has a more robust neutral redistribution before announcing the Fed's decisions on Wednesday night. The ruble was in the top three in growth against the dollar among 24 emerging foreign exchange markets. Moreover, most emerging markets rose on Tuesday. Here, too, we see a rebalancing of portfolios before the Fed, so that currencies that were recently under the most influential brands have risen in price. EUR / USD -1.1724 (-0.01%), with the beginning of the year -4.0%; GBP / USD -1.3658 (+ 0.01%), with the beginning of the year -0.1%; USD / JPY-109.32 (-0.06%), with the beginning of the year + 5.9%; Dollar index-93,201 (-0.08%), with the beginning of the year + 3.6%; USD / RUB -73,011 (-0.40%), with the beginning of the year -1.1%; EUR / RUB -85.6043 (-0.64%), with the beginning of the year -5.2%

 

• CHART OF THE DAY:

The U.S. dollar fell slightly from its high in the past month, and the global market rebounded on Tuesday. The previous day was shrouded in risk aversion due to the uncertainty of China Evergrande's solvency. Investors are currently waiting for the US Federal Reserve. The results of the two-day policy meeting of the Board of Governors (Federal Reserve). After hitting the highest level since August 23 on Monday, the U.S. dollar moved up and down in the flat market on Tuesday. After the initial gains of Wall Street index stocks cooled down, the U.S. dollar once moved higher. Investors pay attention to the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday to find any clues as to when the Fed will begin to scale back its large-scale bond purchase plan. This week, many central banks around the world will issue policy statements. The market is trying to understand whether this reversal on Tuesday will continue. If risk appetite continues to improve, the U.S. dollar will fall further from its current level. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.019. It was as high as 93.455 on Monday. The euro fell 0.01% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1724. Other safe-haven currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc strengthened on Monday, as financial markets were nervous about the impact of China's possible default by Evergrande. On Tuesday, Xu Jiayin, chairman of China Evergrande Group, tried to increase confidence in the troubled real estate company, but the concerns mentioned above overshadowed its impact. There is no sign that Beijing will intervene to prevent any domino effect in the global economy. The offshore renminbi fell to 6.4817 yuan against the U.S. dollar. Before the Evergrande debt crisis shocked the market, the U.S. dollar was supported before the Fed meeting this week. Economists interviewed predicted that policymakers would signal that the Fed would postpone reducing its quantitative easing program until November.• U.S. dollar Index (DXY) - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~93.40 & 93.77, Support (target zone) around ~ 92.48 & 91.81

 

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