• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:
The main indices lost approximately 1% on Friday. As the market faded, a positive opening and investors digested a mixed legal ruling on Apple (AAPL 148.97, -5.10, -3.3%) compared to Epic Games. S&P 500 (-0.8%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) and Russell 2000 (-1.0%) were at their lowest levels. The first gains of the index ranged from 0.6% to 0.7% in a downward buying effort, but this quickly dissipated over any specific news. Late in the morning, a court decided that Apple must provide developers with the ability to create their own payment options. The judge said the company is not an antitrust monopolist in the mobile gaming sub-market in Apple's favor. Apple shares then fell by 3%, and Alphabet shares (GOOG 2838.42, -59.85, -2.1%) fell in sympathy considering it owns the Google Play store. The information technology (-1.0%) and communication services (-0.9%) sectors, which are home to AAPL and GOOG, underperformed along with the utilities (-1.4%) and real estate (-1.2%) sectors. No industry finished higher as sales accelerated until the end without any news. Presumably, the inability to sustain rebound gains fuelled concerns about further stock weakness with the loss of price momentum. The benchmark has extended its defeats to five sessions. The CBOE volatility index (20.89, +2.09, +11.1%) surged above 20.00. Another hot Producer Price Index report did not seem to affect stocks that much, but the Treasury was under some selling pressure because of that. Another warm ratio of the producer price index didn't seem to affect stocks as much, but the treasury was under some selling pressure because of that. The 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 1.34%, while the 2-year yield remained unchanged at 0.21%. The dollar index went up 0.2% to 92.62. WTI crude oil futures grew 2.3%, or $1.57, to $69.75/barrel.In the earnings news, the shares of Affirm (AFRM 123.70, +31.64, +34.4%) rose by about 35% after the company reported better-than-expected results and published optimistic revenue forecasts. However, Kroger (KR 42.67, -3.46, -7.5%) fell by 7.5% due to rising costs. European stock markets were mixed at the end of the turbulent trading day. The Frankfurt DAX 30 index rose 0.1% after closing at a more than one-month low on Wednesday to close at 15,630 points. The Paris CAC 40 index and Milan FTSE MIB index rose 0.2 %. At the same time, the London FTSE 100 Index and the Madrid Index fell 1% and 0.4% respectively. The European Central Bank announced that it would reduce bond purchases for the rest of this year. Still, it did not signal the next policy actions, including how to cancel the 1.85 trillion euro pandemic emergency purchase plan (PEPP). In addition, the central bank raised its growth and inflation expectations for this year. In other respects, concerns about the slowdown in global growth caused by the coronavirus outbreak continue to weigh on market sentiment. The FTSE 100 index closed at 7022 points, a 1% drop, the lowest level since July 28, as concerns about slowing economic growth hit commodity and financial stocks. In addition, EasyJet’s share price plummeted by more than 10% after British Airways stated that it rejected the takeover offer and would raise US$1.7 billion from shareholders to fund its flu pandemic recovery and expansion of operations. On the political front, Prime Minister Boris Johnson successfully passed a new tax increase plan to provide health care and social security funding. The plan increases the national insurance tax for employers and employees by 1.25% and an additional 1.25% dividend tax. In other respects, the European Central Bank announced that it would moderately reduce the speed of net asset purchases by PEPP regulations for the remainder of this year, which is consistent with popular expectations. Still, it did not provide details on the timetable and speed of the reduction. The Standard & Poor's/Toronto Stock Exchange composite index rose slightly, financial and technology stocks rose, and energy and industrial stocks fell. Concerns about the slow economic rebound and the increase in new coronavirus cases have also affected risk appetite. At the same time, the latest polls show that the Conservative Party continues to lead the Liberal Party in this month's federal election because the candidates are preparing for the third and final debate tonight, which is the only one conducted in English. Debate. Because the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose, boosting the rise of Japanese semiconductor stocks. Shipping stocks soared, driving the Nikkei 225 Index to rise on the 10th, the final rise of 1.25% or 373.65 points to close at 30,381.84 points. It rose for the ninth time in 10 trading days and reached a new high closing level in about 7 months (since February 16). The Topix Index (TOPIX) rose 1.29% (up 26.72 points) to close at 2,091.65 points, rising for the ninth time in 10 trading days, setting a record closing high in about 31 years. The number of companies on the First Section of the East Stock Exchange increased by 1,922, the number of decliners by 222, and the number of companies that remained flat was 44. The First Section of the Eastern Stock Exchange turnover was 392.83 billion yen, higher than the 2 trillion yen mark that showed the active limit of buying gas for the 31st consecutive trading day. It was higher than 3 trillion yen for the sixth consecutive trading day. In terms of the performance of stocks, 28 of the 33 stocks of the First Section of the Top Securities rose, among which securities and commodity futures stocks rose the most, followed by other financial, chemical, and metal products in order. According to the MoneyDJ XQ global winner system quotation, as of the close of the Japanese stock market on the 10th, the U.S. dollar appreciated (i.e., depreciated the yen) against the yen by 0.15% to 109.89; the U.S. dollar depreciated by 0.48% against the yen on the 9th, the first consecutive time Depreciation in 2 trading days. Japanese semiconductor-related stocks soared. Equipment maker Tokyo Weilikchuang soared 4.90%, Advantest soared 3.45%, and silicon fab SUMCO soared 4.09%. Sony rose 1.54% to close at 12,235 yen, a record high for the close in about 5 months. In the 43 weeks since the launch of the PS5 in the Japanese market, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 1 million units. It sold more than one million units faster than the PS4, but it lost to the Switch. Japan Electrolytic, a professional manufacturer of electrolytic copper foil, rose 1.96%. Maintaining the market's leading position, Japan Electrolysis plans to increase production in the United States and double the overall production capacity. Automotive chipmaker Renesas Electronics soared 5.96% to close at 1,370 yen, a new closing high for more than three and a half years (since January 9, 2018). With the shortage of chips and strong demand, brokerages are looking forward to increasing the investment rating and target price of Renesas. Japan's shipping stocks soared. NYK rose 1.23% to close at 9,880 yen, a record closing high in more than 11 years; Merchant Marine (MOL) rose 0.78% to close at 9,030 yen, a record close in 11 years, K-Line has soared 5.63% to close at 6,190 yen, a record closing high in the past 11 years. Some machine tool factories in Japan went up. Fanuc rose 1.25% and Okuma rose 1.23%. Domestic demand has tamped and doubled to hit a new high in two and a half years, boosting Japan's August machine tool orders soaring by nearly 90%, exceeding the 100 billion yen mark in seven consecutive months.
• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:
Looking at the last economic data:
- US: In the week ending September 4, 2021, the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits fell to 310,000, lower than the 335,000 predicted by the market. This is a new pandemic low, just before the end of federal unemployment benefits across the country on September 6. The previous week’s level was raised by 5,000 to 345,000, and the 4-week moving average that eliminated weekly fluctuations fell to 339.5 thousand, which is also a new pandemic low. The number of continuing claims fell to 2.783 million, compared with the forecast of 2.744 million. Recent data continues to show that, with the help of business reopening and the start of the school year, despite the continued resurgence of COVID-19 and labor shortages that pose some risks, the world's largest economy is still recovering.
- US: Democratic senators proposed to impose a 2% excise tax on corporate stock repurchase to support Biden's 3.5 trillion dollar budget. The above proposal was jointly proposed by Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, Chairman of the Finance Committee, and Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the Banking Committee. An assistant to Brown revealed that the plan is expected to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the U.S. Treasury within 10 years. Brown’s office stated in a statement that the provision of funds for team member pension plans or stock repurchase transactions below the threshold are not included in the taxable scope but that US companies headquartered overseas are fully applicable. Item specification. One year after the Trump administration introduced the large-scale corporate tax cuts, the total stock repurchase of US companies reached US $ 806 billion in 2018, a record high.
- JP: According to a Kyodo News survey, 45 of the 47 prefectural and prefectural government locations in Japan (Tokyo is Shinjuku) (96%) Measures are being explored or taken to promote vaccination among young people. It is reported that in Japan's "fifth wave" of the new crown epidemic, the majority of infections are among young people in their 10s to 30s.
- CN: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released the latest statistics on the 10th (Friday). China's new car sales in August 2021 reported a year-on-year decrease of 17.8% to 1.8 million. Under the influence of the global semiconductor shortage, it has shrunk for the fourth consecutive month. On the other hand, the Chinese auto market is recovering from the decline in demand caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. As a result, sales from January to August of 2021 increased by 11.7% from the same period last year.
- CN: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that car sales in the Chinese market in 2021 may be lower than the 6.5% annual increase originally predicted. The main reason is that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is raging worldwide, and the global semiconductor shortage problem may not be solved in the short term. On the other hand, China's new energy vehicle sales in August 2021 continued to deliver outstanding results, with sales more than twice that month, and a total of 321,000 vehicles were sold. New energy vehicles include electric vehicles (EV), plug-in electric vehicles (PHV), and fuel cell vehicles (FCV). To reduce air pollution, the Chinese authorities are working hard to promote environmentally friendly new energy vehicles. Chinese auto brands Shanghai Weilai ( NIO-US ), Xiaopeng ( XPEV-US ), BYD (002594-CN), etc., are also committed to expanding the production capacity of new energy vehicles.
- RU: According to a report from the Russian Satellite News Agency on September 12, the Russian President’s Press Secretary Peskov stated that Putin would visit Belarus in October to participate in the CIS summit. Putin also plans to revisit Belarus in November to participate in the Supreme State Council of the Russian-Belarusian Union, where the issue of integration of Russia and Belarus will be discussed.
- AG: According to local Afghan media reports on the 12th, some local financial service institutions have received notifications from the Afghan Central Bank. From now on, after receiving overseas remittances, Afghan people will only be able to Withdraw the same amount of local currency. However, if the remittance has been remitted before the issuance of this notice and the remitter has indicated that the remittance is withdrawn in U.S. dollars, the financial institution can still pay the remittance in U.S. dollars.
- NZ: New Zealand interest rate market has fully digested the expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and the rate hike of 50 basis points is 4%. Possibility. In addition, it is expected that the policy will be tightened again at the November meeting. Ticehurst, a strategist at Nomura Securities, said that the number of new crown cases in New Zealand has recently stabilized at a low level, and the 25 basis points of interest rate hikes in October and November are now fully included in the calculation. In fact, if the epidemic data continues to decline in the next few weeks, the possibility of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raising interest rates by 50 basis points on October 6 should not be completely ruled out.
- EU: Data show that the eurozone September ZEW economic sentiment index fell from a high fourth consecutive month to 31.1 points, well below the 42.7 in August. During this period, the current economic conditions index rose to 22.5, up from 14.6 in August. Patrick Hussy Sentix, director, the general manager, said: " Euro continued zone economic growth, but the pace is slowing down growing concerns with the rising number of confirmed cases of the new blockade measures that may arise and may give on the economy again. pressure." The Delta variant virus has recently spread rapidly, leading to a rapid increase in infections in many European countries. Although the number of hospitalizations has not increased sharply, and the vaccination rate has continued to increase, it is generally believed that once the infection situation intensifies, it may further affect consumers Willingness to go out. The investment bank Jefferies European economist Marchel Alexandrovich once said: "The epidemic has lasted for 18 months. We have long been accustomed to working from home and are more careful about spending." The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to reach 4.6% by the end of this year, next year 4.7%. Economists expect the second half of this year. The eurozone inflation rate will rise further and fall to well below the 2% target of the European Central Bank (ECB) target set up in 2022 and 2023.
- EU: The 1.85 trillion euro emergency bond purchase plan (PEPP) will expire in March 2022. The European Central Bank will discuss whether to maintain the current bond purchase pace on September 9 next week and decide whether to extend or end it in the next few months. PEPP, and how to continue traditional asset purchase projects (APP). ECB officials about inflation and a more general attitude to maintain optimism, but on Tuesday, the eurozone August consumer price index (CPI) surged to 3 percent, hitting a 10-year high, after excluding energy and food prices, core through The expansion rate reached 1.6%, the highest since 2012.
• LOOKING AHEAD:
Today, investors will receive:
- EUR: German WPI m/m, and Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate.
- USD: Federal Budget Balance.
- AUD: RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks, HPI q/q, NAB Business Confidence, and RBA Gov Lowe Speaks.
- CNY: Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y.
• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:
- The yield on Germany’s benchmark 10-year government bond fell slightly to -0.33%, still close to the nearly two-month high of -0.31% hit earlier this week after the European Central Bank said it would be in the fourth quarter as expected. Moderately slowed down large-scale emergency bond purchases but did not signal the end of the emergency stimulus.
- Democratic senators proposed to impose a 2% excise tax on corporate stock repurchase to support Biden's 3.5 trillion dollar budget. The above proposal was jointly proposed by Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, Chairman of the Finance Committee, and Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the Banking Committee. An assistant to Brown revealed that the plan is expected to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the U.S. Treasury within 10 years. Brown’s office stated in a statement that the provision of funds for team member pension plans or stock repurchase transactions below the threshold are not included in the taxable scope but that US companies headquartered overseas are fully applicable. Item specification. One year after the Trump administration introduced the large-scale corporate tax cuts, the total stock repurchase of US companies reached US $ 806 billion in 2018, a record high.
- The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures closed at US$69.72/barrel, an increase of US$1.58, or 2.32%.
• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:
- High: Materials, Energy.
- Low: Utilities, Real Estate, Information Technology.
• TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS:
- JPY: As the Delta variant virus continues to spread, investors are also worried about the global economic slowdown, and the central bank may reduce stimulus policies. The European Central Bank (ECB) has attracted more attention, raising the cautious sentiment of the global market, and the Chinese government has talked about key online games Companies, or platforms should prevent excessive concentration or even monopoly, dragging down Asian stock markets increasing yen ’s safe-haven buying. According to Atlanta State Reserve Bank President Bostic and FED director Bowman, both are optimistic about the economy and believe the FED maybe this year. Started to reduce asset purchases, but the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week fell to a minimum of 310,000 in the past 18 months, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in economic recovery, triggering expectations that the FED may take action sooner, and impacting the U.S. stock market fell, weighed on the dollar against the yen to 109.61 low.
- OIL: According to data from the EIA Oil Condition Report, in the week ending September 3, US crude oil inventories fell by 1.529 million barrels, which was the fifth consecutive decline, and the market forecast was 4.612 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell by 7.215 million barrels, exceeding the expected 3.39 million barrels. The U.S. crude oil market opened at 69.331 US dollars, and the market rose slightly after giving 69.903 US dollars. However, the market quickly fell back. The lowest daily price reached 67.54 US dollars and then the market consolidation. The daily price finally closed at 67.886 US dollars. The long big Yinxian closes, and after this pattern ends, continue to look at the action.
- USD: The US dollar index fell back to 92.5 after hitting a two-week high of 92.8 in the previous trading day, as investors digested different monetary policies regarding stimulus. After the disappointing non-agricultural employment report was released, traders began to suppress when the Fed reduced bond purchase expectations. However, Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said that based on current prospects, he would support the gradual reduction in bond purchases announced in September, which may begin in October. In addition, Bank of New York Governor John Williams said it "may be appropriate" to reduce bond purchases before the end of the year gradually. At the same time, the European Central Bank said it would slow down the pace of asset purchases. Still, it did not change the overall scope of the stimulus plan, saying that it will be maintained at least until the end of March 2022 or the end of the coronavirus crisis.
- EUR: Subsequently, ECB interest rates were unchanged as expected and decided in the coming quarter slowed the current month slightly to buy 80 billion euros pace of public debt, but also raised the inflation forecast for this year and after two years, ECB President Christine Lagarde also said the euro first area three quarters is expected to achieve strong growth but stressed that the ECB is not buying public debt reduction, but the pace of calibration buy, nor imply that other measures will be taken on how to end 1.85 trillion euros pandemic emergency asset purchase plan (PEPP), against euro against The dollar fell to a low of 1.1803.
• CHART OF THE DAY:
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting ended, and policymakers kept monetary policy unchanged, unanimously agreeing to slow down the PEPP bond purchase plan during the pandemic. Subsequently, the CAC 40 index reduced its early losses to almost flat in afternoon trading. In addition, Christina Lagarde said that the terms and conditions of the reduction would be discussed at the December meeting. In corporate news, the French pharmaceutical company Sanofi’s stock price fell by more than 1% after its autoimmune skin disease treatment failed to reach the primary and secondary endpoints in phase three clinical trials. In contrast, after JP Morgan analysts raised their recommendations for French spirits groups from "neutral" to "overweight," Pernod Ricard climbed to the highest performance of the trading day.• French CAC 40 - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~ 6950, Support (target zone) around ~ 6173.