• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday. The Dow Jones index closed slightly lower. Investors dismissed the weak data and inflation concerns and turned to the earnings report. So far, 41 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have announced their third-quarter results, 80% of which exceed earnings per share expectations, and the overall S&P 500's estimated profit growth in the third quarter is 30%. This week, major companies scheduled to announce results include Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla, United Airlines, Procter & Gamble, Verizon, and IBM. At the same time, economic data showed that China’s GDP growth slowed in the third quarter, and the growth rate exceeded expectations. US industrial activity unexpectedly declined in the second month of September. The S&P/TSX Composite Index reversed its early decline on Monday and closed at 20,977 points, an increase of 0.2%, a record high. The strong gains in energy, industrial, and technology sectors offset the weakness in mining stocks. However, concerns about slowing economic growth and concerns about continued inflation have weighed on market sentiment. At the same time, the new government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will impose higher taxes on Canadians. Still, analysts say this may not be enough to start paying off the country’s record debt, leaving Canada vulnerable to The impact of an economic crisis. After experiencing its best week since March, European stock markets returned to negative territory on Monday as growth and inflation concerns plagued investors. The latest data show that US industrial output unexpectedly fell for the second consecutive month in September, showing that manufacturers continue to be hit by supply chain bottlenecks. In addition, China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter, confirming that China’s second-largest economy is losing momentum. Elsewhere, as gas and oil prices continue to rise after Gazprom's hopes for more supply were dashed in November, concerns about inflation are rampant. Germany's DAX index fell 0.7% to close at 15,474 points; Italy's FTSE MIB index and France's CAC40 index fell 0.8% to 26269 points and 6673 points, respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.4% to 7204 points. The FTSE 100 Index continued its decline on Monday, closing at 7,204 points, a 0.4% drop, the worst trading day in the past two weeks, led by healthcare and travel-related stocks. Supply chain and inflation concerns, as well as the prospect of slowing global growth and rising interest rates, have also disrupted market sentiment. On Sunday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that policymakers must act because soaring energy prices will push up inflation and make it last longer. At the same time, according to a survey released today, the chief financial officer of the UK’s top companies predicts that the UK’s supply chain problems will continue for at least another year, and the inflation rate will remain above 2.5% within two years. On the good news, gambling software group Playtech has risen by nearly 60% after agreeing to be acquired by Australian game console manufacturer Noble Leisure for £2.1 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to close at 3568 points, and the Shenzhen sector fell 0.46% to close at 14,350 points. These two indexes made up for most of the losses earlier in the day after the sharp sell-off after GDP and other economic data releases. At the same time, market expectations of loose monetary policy have weakened because policymakers have indicated other ways to support growth. Analysts use China's medium-term loan mechanism, open market operations, and other targeted tools as a means for the authorities to support the economy. Goldman Sachs said that the People's Bank of China would not lower the deposit reserve ratio this year. On Monday, the Tokyo stock market was flat and profit-taking after the recent rebound from the October 6 low. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.15% to close at 29,025 points, while Topix fell 0.23% to close at 2019 points. BayCurrent Consulting (-14.31) led the decline after quarterly earnings were lower than market expectations, and fintech start-up capital forward (-12.42%) led the decline after reporting quarterly losses greater than expected; the other decline in trading volume was electronics giant Lasertec (down 2.1%) ), holding company SoftBank (down 0.83%) and electronics manufacturer Sony Group (down 1.63%). At the same time, Toyota Motors led the rise of auto stocks (2.22%) after the company said it would stick to its latest full-year production target. The Standard & Poor's/Australian Stock Exchange 200 index edged up 0.26% to close at 7381 points, supported by rising materials and financial sectors and some merger announcements. The soaring metal prices boosted Australian mining companies, including Nickel Mine (5.1%), Oro Cobray (4.9%), Lynas Rare Earth (4.8%), OZ Minerals (4.6%), and IGO (4.3%). Elsewhere, mergers and acquisitions were in full swing on Monday, starting with Noble Leisure's acquisition of the gaming software company Playtech for US$4 billion, South Korean steelmaker Pohang Steel's acquisition of natural gas producer Senex Energy for US$815 million, and HUB24 for 3.86 Billion dollars in the acquisition of Pension Management Business Class Co., Ltd., as well as other companies, because the company speeds up corporate transactions before it may raise interest rates. The Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4% in early trading on Monday to close above 7,300. Wall Street stocks closed strongly last week, led by the energy and financial sectors, while gold miners fell behind due to the sharp drop in gold prices. Company headlines: MoneyMe, a lending company, received a record $1 billion loans in the first quarter; this morning, when it acquired the British game software company PalTead for $5 billion this morning, noble leisure stock was suspended; natural gas company Senex Energy proposed South Korea’s Posco International's $814.8 million acquisition offer; HomeCo and Aventus proposed to merge shopping malls and retail real estate portfolios. At the same time, as Australia gradually reopened international travel, Australia received additional treatment for COVID-19.

 

• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:

Looking at the last economic data:

- US: The United States recorded a capital and financial account surplus of 91 billion U.S. dollars in August 2021, which is the 10th consecutive month of growth, after an increase of 164.1 billion U.S. dollars in the previous month. In August, foreign investors purchased US$30.7 billion in US Treasury bonds, while inflows in July were US$10.2 billion. At the same time, foreigners purchased US$79.3 billion in US long-term securities after buying US$2 billion in the previous month.

- US: In October 2021, the US NAHB Housing Market Index rose 4 points from the previous month to 80 points, the most significant monthly increase since November last year, easily exceeding market expectations of 76 points. The current single-family sub-index has increased from 82 to 87 last month, and the house sales sub-index in the next six months has risen from 81 to 84. In addition, the standard for potential buyers rose from 61 to 65.

- CA: In August 2021, foreign investors acquired a net of 26.3 billion Canadian dollars in Canadian securities, the most significant amount since the record investment in April 2020, mainly in the form of debt securities issued by the federal government and chartered banks. At the same time, after withdrawing 4.7 billion Canadian dollars last month, Canadian investors increased their holdings of foreign securities by 15.2 billion Canadian dollars. As a result, the percentage of Canadian investors buying foreign securities in August was bonds and stocks, an increase of 9.4 billion Canadian dollars in U.S. stocks, and a decrease of 1.4 billion Canadian dollars in non-U.S. foreign reserves. Despite this, the total amount of bonds purchased was 7.1 billion Canadian dollars, of which 3.5 billion Canadian dollars were non-US foreign bonds, which was the most significant investment since September 2020. Therefore, following a net inflow of 18.7 billion Canadian dollars in July, the international securities trading in August generated a net inflow of 11.1 billion Canadian dollars into the Canadian economy.

- CA: According to data from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC), Canada’s housing starts in September 2021 fell 4.4% from the previous month to 25,151 units, which was the fourth consecutive month of decline was lower than market expectations of 255,000 units. This is the lowest reading since December 2020. In addition, urban construction starts fell by 4.5%, multiple urban constructions fell 4% to 165,861 units, and a single independent metropolitan area fell 5.9% to 57,194 units. After seasonal adjustment, the operating rate in rural areas is estimated to be 28,096 units.

- CN: After critical economic data failed to meet expectations, China's stock market fell in early trading on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% to 3,550 points, while the Shenzhen stock market fell 1.2% to below 14,250 points. China’s third-quarter GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the 5.2% forecast. In comparison, the industrial production in September increased by 3.1%, far below the 4.5% forecast due to the ongoing debt crisis in the real estate sector, power shortages, and pandemics. In addition, supply-side concerns have suppressed China's economic growth. At the same time, compared with growth forecasts, retail sales in September increased by 4.4%, exceeding expectations and providing some cushion for the previously reported strong exports. Elsewhere, in September, the urban unemployment rate was 4.9%, and fixed asset investment increased by 7.3% in the third quarter, compared to expectations of 7.9%. Investors are now seeking guidance from government authorities on potential policy actions.

- CN: The unemployment rate in the cities surveyed in China fell from a three-month high of 5.1% in August to a 33-month low of 4.9% in September. The unemployment rate for people aged 16-24 fell to 14.6% from 15.3% in August. At the same time, the surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large cities and towns fell to 5.0% from 5.3% last month. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide was 47.8 hours, an increase of 0.3 hours from August. In the first nine months, 10.45 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, achieving 95% of the annual target. China has set a goal of 11 million new urban jobs this year. The survey shows that the urban unemployment rate this year is 5.5%.

- NZ: The New Zealand BusinessNZ Service Performance Index rose from a downward revision of 35.4 in August to 46.9 in September 2021. The data still shows that the service sector has contracted, albeit on a smaller scale than last month, because the country lowered its alert level in September, allowing some companies to free up time to increase activities. Employment (52 vs. 49.3) and inventories (51.5 vs. 48) both rebounded, while activity (45.3 vs. 25.5) declined. BusinessNZ CEO Kirk Hope said that although the overall results in September have improved, the current restrictions still mean that business in most parts of the country still has a long way to go.

- NZ: In the third quarter of 2021, New Zealand’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.9%, the highest level since the second quarter of 2011 and higher than the forecasted 4.1%. The primary upward pressure comes from the cost of housing and household utilities (6%), of which housing ownership increased by 12%; transportation (11%), private transportation supplies and services increased by 15%; food (3.1%), including restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food, An increase of 4.5%. Compared with the previous quarter, the inflation rate rose to 2.2%, the highest level since December 2010. The main drivers are the costs associated with housing, such as new house construction and local government rates.

 

• LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors will receive:

- USD: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Member Daly Speaks, FOMC Member Bowman Speaks, Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Member Bostic Speaks, and FOMC Member Waller Speaks.

- GBP: MPC Member Mann Speaks, and BOE Gov Bailey Speaks.

- AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

- CHF: Trade Balance.

- AUD: CB Leading Index m/m.

- NZD: GDT Price Index.

 

• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

-

- The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield broke through 0.09%, reaching the highest level since the end of April. The bond market experienced a global collapse due to growing concerns about supply disruptions and the timing of when major central banks began to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, a survey conducted by the Bank of Japan showed that in the three months ending in September, Japanese households’ inflation expectations for the next year have risen, and their economic prospects have also deteriorated.

- The yield on British 10-year government bonds rebounded to 1.14%, close to the two-year high of 1.22% set on October 11, when global bond sales and rising price pressures encouraged the tightening of major central banks soon. Monetary policy expectations. In the UK, traders bet that the Bank of England will raise interest rates as soon as 2021, after the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, acknowledged the central bank's need to prevent high inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. However, Governor Bailey reiterated that the recent increase in inflationary pressures is temporary and said that the central bank has no tools to deal with supply disruptions. The Bank of England predicts that the annual inflation rate in 2021 will exceed 4%, more than double the central bank's target.

- In the second half of October, the Australian 10-year government bond yield approached a 5-month high of 1.8%, which coincided with the global bond sell-off caused by rising inflation concerns. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia promised to raise interest rates by 2024, traders still bet on raising interest rates as early as mid-2022. At the same time, Australia's most populous state has abolished the mask regulations, allowing larger groups to move indoors and outdoors, as the vaccination rate has reached 80%.

- In the third week of October, the Italian 10-year bond yield rose to 0.943%, the highest level since the global bond sell-off on May 25, because more and more people believe that because inflationary pressures show no signs of easing, central banks of various countries Monetary policy will be relaxed sooner or later. Although European Central Bank President Lagarde tried to reassure the market, saying that the inflation spike is temporary, other major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, have turned to hawkish stances.

- The yield on China’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to over 3% for the first time since July 9. After central bank officials said at the weekend that inflation risks were “controllable,” hopes for loose monetary policy subsided. China Evergrande’s debt crisis is unlikely to spread. To the real economy or other areas of the financial industry. At the same time, economic data shows that due to power shortages, supply bottlenecks, and several new crown epidemics, the world's second-largest economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, which was lower than market expectations of 5.2%, which was the slowest growth rate in a year.

-

 

• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:

- High: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services.

- Low: Utilities, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Materials.

 

• TOP CURRENCY & COMMODITIES MARKET DRIVERS:

- RUB: The Russian ruble depreciated to 71.3 against the US dollar, after hitting a 14-month high of 71.8 US dollars in the previous week, due to weak Chinese economic data and increasing global inflation concerns, which reduced risk appetite. However, the rebound in energy prices and expectations that the Russian Central Bank will raise interest rates later this week to curb rising inflation support the currency. Policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points when they meet on October 22, while Brent crude oil will reach a high of more than $85 per barrel in more than three years due to increased demand and supply disruptions.

- EUR: The euro was slightly lower than $1.16 in October, hovering near the lowest point since July 2020. The market expects the Fed to scale down faster than the European Central Bank and fears that the unprecedented energy crisis and supply chain bottlenecks will increase inflationary pressures. Big. Fed officials are expected to start reducing asset purchases in November and start raising interest rates next year, while the European Central Bank is expected to increase interest rates by ten basis points before the end of 2022. At the same time, European Central Bank President Lagarde said over the weekend that as the aftermath of the epidemic continues, the central bank of the eurozone will continue to assist the eurozone economy. The market is concerned about inflation.

- USD: On Monday, the U.S. dollar index rose at around 94 points, in line with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and not far from the 11-month high. Investors generally have risk aversion and bet that the U.S. economy is better and can survive inflationary pressures. The Fed fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic in the event of an early reduction. The latest data shows that China’s economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter, while oil prices continued to soar to multi-year highs. As the earnings season continues and the Markit Purchasing Managers Index rises rapidly, traders will focus on company performance this week.

- GBP: The pound remained above $1.37 in October, hovering near its highest level in a month. The market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates later this year or early 2022. On Sunday, Governor Andrew Bailey said again that policymakers must take action because soaring energy prices will push up inflation and make it last longer, thereby increasing the risk of rising inflation expectations. As a result, the Central Bank predicts that Britain’s inflation rate will exceed 4%, more than twice its target. Elsewhere, worries about the British economy have intensified due to the unprecedented energy crisis and the shortage of workers after Brexit and the new crown epidemic. At the same time, investors are also worried about unemployment because the vacation plan introduced to alleviate the epidemic's impact ended in September.

- RMB: On Monday, China’s offshore renminbi exchange rate did not change much. The exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was slightly lower or down 0.1%, about 6.4340, higher than the fixed exchange rate of 6.4300 because the market digested disappointing GDP and industrial production data, and monetary policy was loose. The stakes are also decreasing. In the third quarter, China’s GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year and is expected to be 5.2%. In September, industrial production increased by 3.1% year-on-year and is expected to be 4.5%. The reason is that the real estate industry’s ongoing debt crisis, power shortages, and supply bottlenecks have dragged down the economy. At the same time, after People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang assured the market that inflation was controllable and played down the risk of default in the Evergrande crisis (limited to corporate mismanagement), China’s benchmark yield jumped to a three-month high of more than 3% At this point, the market’s loose bets are reduced.

- NZD: The New Zealand dollar rose sharply in early trading on Monday, after the country’s inflation rate soared to the fastest rate in a decade and then fell back, stabilizing the exchange rate against the US dollar at around 0.70770. The annual inflation rate in the third quarter jumped from 3.3% in the previous quarter to 4.9%, surpassing all forecasts and boosting expectations for another 50 basis point increase in interest rates in November. However, analysts worldwide are still debating whether faster inflation is a temporary phenomenon caused by the supply chain disruption caused by the new crown virus or a more permanent phenomenon when the authorities are considering a policy response. At the same time, the New Zealand government's 10-year bond yield rebounded to 2.318%, the highest level since January 2019.

 

• CHART OF THE DAY:

The FTSE MIB fell 0.8% on Monday to close at 26,269 points, partially offsetting last week’s 1.7% gain. Concerns about slowing global economic activity and rising inflation reappeared after China’s third-quarter GDP growth slowed more than expected. Nevertheless, a technical factor is still weighing on the index as Intesa Sanpaolo (down 3.2%) and General Bank (down 2.1%) traded after ex-dividend. On the other hand, bank business process management (+2.2%) and BPER Bank (+1.6%) was boosted by the assumption of the extension of tax credits for total credit.• Italy FTSE MIB Index - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~ 26536, Support (consolidation) around ~ 25373 & 24656.

• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday. The Dow Jones index closed slightly lower. Investors dismissed the weak data and inflation concerns and turned to the earnings report. So far, 41 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have announced their third-quarter results, 80% of which exceed earnings per share expectations, and the overall S&P 500's estimated profit growth in the third quarter is 30%. This week, major companies scheduled to announce results include Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla, United Airlines, Procter & Gamble, Verizon, and IBM. At the same time, economic data showed that China’s GDP growth slowed in the third quarter, and the growth rate exceeded expectations. US industrial activity unexpectedly declined in the second month of September. The S&P/TSX Composite Index reversed its early decline on Monday and closed at 20,977 points, an increase of 0.2%, a record high. The strong gains in energy, industrial, and technology sectors offset the weakness in mining stocks. However, concerns about slowing economic growth and concerns about continued inflation have weighed on market sentiment. At the same time, the new government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will impose higher taxes on Canadians. Still, analysts say this may not be enough to start paying off the country’s record debt, leaving Canada vulnerable to The impact of an economic crisis. After experiencing its best week since March, European stock markets returned to negative territory on Monday as growth and inflation concerns plagued investors. The latest data show that US industrial output unexpectedly fell for the second consecutive month in September, showing that manufacturers continue to be hit by supply chain bottlenecks. In addition, China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter, confirming that China’s second-largest economy is losing momentum. Elsewhere, as gas and oil prices continue to rise after Gazprom's hopes for more supply were dashed in November, concerns about inflation are rampant. Germany's DAX index fell 0.7% to close at 15,474 points; Italy's FTSE MIB index and France's CAC40 index fell 0.8% to 26269 points and 6673 points, respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.4% to 7204 points. The FTSE 100 Index continued its decline on Monday, closing at 7,204 points, a 0.4% drop, the worst trading day in the past two weeks, led by healthcare and travel-related stocks. Supply chain and inflation concerns, as well as the prospect of slowing global growth and rising interest rates, have also disrupted market sentiment. On Sunday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that policymakers must act because soaring energy prices will push up inflation and make it last longer. At the same time, according to a survey released today, the chief financial officer of the UK’s top companies predicts that the UK’s supply chain problems will continue for at least another year, and the inflation rate will remain above 2.5% within two years. On the good news, gambling software group Playtech has risen by nearly 60% after agreeing to be acquired by Australian game console manufacturer Noble Leisure for £2.1 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to close at 3568 points, and the Shenzhen sector fell 0.46% to close at 14,350 points. These two indexes made up for most of the losses earlier in the day after the sharp sell-off after GDP and other economic data releases. At the same time, market expectations of loose monetary policy have weakened because policymakers have indicated other ways to support growth. Analysts use China's medium-term loan mechanism, open market operations, and other targeted tools as a means for the authorities to support the economy. Goldman Sachs said that the People's Bank of China would not lower the deposit reserve ratio this year. On Monday, the Tokyo stock market was flat and profit-taking after the recent rebound from the October 6 low. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.15% to close at 29,025 points, while Topix fell 0.23% to close at 2019 points. BayCurrent Consulting (-14.31) led the decline after quarterly earnings were lower than market expectations, and fintech start-up capital forward (-12.42%) led the decline after reporting quarterly losses greater than expected; the other decline in trading volume was electronics giant Lasertec (down 2.1%) ), holding company SoftBank (down 0.83%) and electronics manufacturer Sony Group (down 1.63%). At the same time, Toyota Motors led the rise of auto stocks (2.22%) after the company said it would stick to its latest full-year production target. The Standard & Poor's/Australian Stock Exchange 200 index edged up 0.26% to close at 7381 points, supported by rising materials and financial sectors and some merger announcements. The soaring metal prices boosted Australian mining companies, including Nickel Mine (5.1%), Oro Cobray (4.9%), Lynas Rare Earth (4.8%), OZ Minerals (4.6%), and IGO (4.3%). Elsewhere, mergers and acquisitions were in full swing on Monday, starting with Noble Leisure's acquisition of the gaming software company Playtech for US$4 billion, South Korean steelmaker Pohang Steel's acquisition of natural gas producer Senex Energy for US$815 million, and HUB24 for 3.86 Billion dollars in the acquisition of Pension Management Business Class Co., Ltd., as well as other companies, because the company speeds up corporate transactions before it may raise interest rates. The Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4% in early trading on Monday to close above 7,300. Wall Street stocks closed strongly last week, led by the energy and financial sectors, while gold miners fell behind due to the sharp drop in gold prices. Company headlines: MoneyMe, a lending company, received a record $1 billion loans in the first quarter; this morning, when it acquired the British game software company PalTead for $5 billion this morning, noble leisure stock was suspended; natural gas company Senex Energy proposed South Korea’s Posco International's $814.8 million acquisition offer; HomeCo and Aventus proposed to merge shopping malls and retail real estate portfolios. At the same time, as Australia gradually reopened international travel, Australia received additional treatment for COVID-19.   • REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA: Looking at the last economic data: - US: The United States recorded a capital and financial account surplus of 91 billion U.S. dollars in August 2021, which is the 10th consecutive month of growth, after an increase of 164.1 billion U.S. dollars in the previous month. In August, foreign investors purchased US$30.7 billion in US Treasury bonds, while inflows in July were US$10.2 billion. At the same time, foreigners purchased US$79.3 billion in US long-term securities after buying US$2 billion in the previous month. - US: In October 2021, the US NAHB Housing Market Index rose 4 points from the previous month to 80 points, the most significant monthly increase since November last year, easily exceeding market expectations of 76 points. The current single-family sub-index has increased from 82 to 87 last month, and the house sales sub-index in the next six months has risen from 81 to 84. In addition, the standard for potential buyers rose from 61 to 65. - CA: In August 2021, foreign investors acquired a net of 26.3 billion Canadian dollars in Canadian securities, the most significant amount since the record investment in April 2020, mainly in the form of debt securities issued by the federal government and chartered banks. At the same time, after withdrawing 4.7 billion Canadian dollars last month, Canadian investors increased their holdings of foreign securities by 15.2 billion Canadian dollars. As a result, the percentage of Canadian investors buying foreign securities in August was bonds and stocks, an increase of 9.4 billion Canadian dollars in U.S. stocks, and a decrease of 1.4 billion Canadian dollars in non-U.S. foreign reserves. Despite this, the total amount of bonds purchased was 7.1 billion Canadian dollars, of which 3.5 billion Canadian dollars were non-US foreign bonds, which was the most significant investment since September 2020. Therefore, following a net inflow of 18.7 billion Canadian dollars in July, the international securities trading in August generated a net inflow of 11.1 billion Canadian dollars into the Canadian economy. - CA: According to data from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC), Canada’s housing starts in September 2021 fell 4.4% from the previous month to 25,151 units, which was the fourth consecutive month of decline was lower than market expectations of 255,000 units. This is the lowest reading since December 2020. In addition, urban construction starts fell by 4.5%, multiple urban constructions fell 4% to 165,861 units, and a single independent metropolitan area fell 5.9% to 57,194 units. After seasonal adjustment, the operating rate in rural areas is estimated to be 28,096 units. - CN: After critical economic data failed to meet expectations, China's stock market fell in early trading on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% to 3,550 points, while the Shenzhen stock market fell 1.2% to below 14,250 points. China’s third-quarter GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the 5.2% forecast. In comparison, the industrial production in September increased by 3.1%, far below the 4.5% forecast due to the ongoing debt crisis in the real estate sector, power shortages, and pandemics. In addition, supply-side concerns have suppressed China's economic growth. At the same time, compared with growth forecasts, retail sales in September increased by 4.4%, exceeding expectations and providing some cushion for the previously reported strong exports. Elsewhere, in September, the urban unemployment rate was 4.9%, and fixed asset investment increased by 7.3% in the third quarter, compared to expectations of 7.9%. Investors are now seeking guidance from government authorities on potential policy actions. - CN: The unemployment rate in the cities surveyed in China fell from a three-month high of 5.1% in August to a 33-month low of 4.9% in September. The unemployment rate for people aged 16-24 fell to 14.6% from 15.3% in August. At the same time, the surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large cities and towns fell to 5.0% from 5.3% last month. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide was 47.8 hours, an increase of 0.3 hours from August. In the first nine months, 10.45 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, achieving 95% of the annual target. China has set a goal of 11 million new urban jobs this year. The survey shows that the urban unemployment rate this year is 5.5%. - NZ: The New Zealand BusinessNZ Service Performance Index rose from a downward revision of 35.4 in August to 46.9 in September 2021. The data still shows that the service sector has contracted, albeit on a smaller scale than last month, because the country lowered its alert level in September, allowing some companies to free up time to increase activities. Employment (52 vs. 49.3) and inventories (51.5 vs. 48) both rebounded, while activity (45.3 vs. 25.5) declined. BusinessNZ CEO Kirk Hope said that although the overall results in September have improved, the current restrictions still mean that business in most parts of the country still has a long way to go. - NZ: In the third quarter of 2021, New Zealand’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.9%, the highest level since the second quarter of 2011 and higher than the forecasted 4.1%. The primary upward pressure comes from the cost of housing and household utilities (6%), of which housing ownership increased by 12%; transportation (11%), private transportation supplies and services increased by 15%; food (3.1%), including restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food, An increase of 4.5%. Compared with the previous quarter, the inflation rate rose to 2.2%, the highest level since December 2010. The main drivers are the costs associated with housing, such as new house construction and local government rates.   • LOOKING AHEAD: Today, investors will receive: - USD: Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Member Daly Speaks, FOMC Member Bowman Speaks, Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Member Bostic Speaks, and FOMC Member Waller Speaks. - GBP: MPC Member Mann Speaks, and BOE Gov Bailey Speaks. - AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. - CHF: Trade Balance. - AUD: CB Leading Index m/m. - NZD: GDT Price Index.   • KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS: - - The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield broke through 0.09%, reaching the highest level since the end of April. The bond market experienced a global collapse due to growing concerns about supply disruptions and the timing of when major central banks began to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, a survey conducted by the Bank of Japan showed that in the three months ending in September, Japanese households’ inflation expectations for the next year have risen, and their economic prospects have also deteriorated. - The yield on British 10-year government bonds rebounded to 1.14%, close to the two-year high of 1.22% set on October 11, when global bond sales and rising price pressures encouraged the tightening of major central banks soon. Monetary policy expectations. In the UK, traders bet that the Bank of England will raise interest rates as soon as 2021, after the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, acknowledged the central bank's need to prevent high inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. However, Governor Bailey reiterated that the recent increase in inflationary pressures is temporary and said that the central bank has no tools to deal with supply disruptions. The Bank of England predicts that the annual inflation rate in 2021 will exceed 4%, more than double the central bank's target. - In the second half of October, the Australian 10-year government bond yield approached a 5-month high of 1.8%, which coincided with the global bond sell-off caused by rising inflation concerns. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia promised to raise interest rates by 2024, traders still bet on raising interest rates as early as mid-2022. At the same time, Australia's most populous state has abolished the mask regulations, allowing larger groups to move indoors and outdoors, as the vaccination rate has reached 80%. - In the third week of October, the Italian 10-year bond yield rose to 0.943%, the highest level since the global bond sell-off on May 25, because more and more people believe that because inflationary pressures show no signs of easing, central banks of various countries Monetary policy will be relaxed sooner or later. Although European Central Bank President Lagarde tried to reassure the market, saying that the inflation spike is temporary, other major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, have turned to hawkish stances. - The yield on China’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to over 3% for the first time since July 9. After central bank officials said at the weekend that inflation risks were “controllable,” hopes for loose monetary policy subsided. China Evergrande’s debt crisis is unlikely to spread. To the real economy or other areas of the financial industry. At the same time, economic data shows that due to power shortages, supply bottlenecks, and several new crown epidemics, the world's second-largest economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, which was lower than market expectations of 5.2%, which was the slowest growth rate in a year. -   • STOCK MARKET SECTORS: - High: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services. - Low: Utilities, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Materials.   • TOP CURRENCY & COMMODITIES MARKET DRIVERS: - RUB: The Russian ruble depreciated to 71.3 against the US dollar, after hitting a 14-month high of 71.8 US dollars in the previous week, due to weak Chinese economic data and increasing global inflation concerns, which reduced risk appetite. However, the rebound in energy prices and expectations that the Russian Central Bank will raise interest rates later this week to curb rising inflation support the currency. Policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points when they meet on October 22, while Brent crude oil will reach a high of more than $85 per barrel in more than three years due to increased demand and supply disruptions. - EUR: The euro was slightly lower than $1.16 in October, hovering near the lowest point since July 2020. The market expects the Fed to scale down faster than the European Central Bank and fears that the unprecedented energy crisis and supply chain bottlenecks will increase inflationary pressures. Big. Fed officials are expected to start reducing asset purchases in November and start raising interest rates next year, while the European Central Bank is expected to increase interest rates by ten basis points before the end of 2022. At the same time, European Central Bank President Lagarde said over the weekend that as the aftermath of the epidemic continues, the central bank of the eurozone will continue to assist the eurozone economy. The market is concerned about inflation. - USD: On Monday, the U.S. dollar index rose at around 94 points, in line with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and not far from the 11-month high. Investors generally have risk aversion and bet that the U.S. economy is better and can survive inflationary pressures. The Fed fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic in the event of an early reduction. The latest data shows that China’s economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter, while oil prices continued to soar to multi-year highs. As the earnings season continues and the Markit Purchasing Managers Index rises rapidly, traders will focus on company performance this week. - GBP: The pound remained above $1.37 in October, hovering near its highest level in a month. The market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates later this year or early 2022. On Sunday, Governor Andrew Bailey said again that policymakers must take action because soaring energy prices will push up inflation and make it last longer, thereby increasing the risk of rising inflation expectations. As a result, the Central Bank predicts that Britain’s inflation rate will exceed 4%, more than twice its target. Elsewhere, worries about the British economy have intensified due to the unprecedented energy crisis and the shortage of workers after Brexit and the new crown epidemic. At the same time, investors are also worried about unemployment because the vacation plan introduced to alleviate the epidemic's impact ended in September. - RMB: On Monday, China’s offshore renminbi exchange rate did not change much. The exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was slightly lower or down 0.1%, about 6.4340, higher than the fixed exchange rate of 6.4300 because the market digested disappointing GDP and industrial production data, and monetary policy was loose. The stakes are also decreasing. In the third quarter, China’s GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year and is expected to be 5.2%. In September, industrial production increased by 3.1% year-on-year and is expected to be 4.5%. The reason is that the real estate industry’s ongoing debt crisis, power shortages, and supply bottlenecks have dragged down the economy. At the same time, after People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang assured the market that inflation was controllable and played down the risk of default in the Evergrande crisis (limited to corporate mismanagement), China’s benchmark yield jumped to a three-month high of more than 3% At this point, the market’s loose bets are reduced. - NZD: The New Zealand dollar rose sharply in early trading on Monday, after the country’s inflation rate soared to the fastest rate in a decade and then fell back, stabilizing the exchange rate against the US dollar at around 0.70770. The annual inflation rate in the third quarter jumped from 3.3% in the previous quarter to 4.9%, surpassing all forecasts and boosting expectations for another 50 basis point increase in interest rates in November. However, analysts worldwide are still debating whether faster inflation is a temporary phenomenon caused by the supply chain disruption caused by the new crown virus or a more permanent phenomenon when the authorities are considering a policy response. At the same time, the New Zealand government's 10-year bond yield rebounded to 2.318%, the highest level since January 2019.   • CHART OF THE DAY: The FTSE MIB fell 0.8% on Monday to close at 26,269 points, partially offsetting last week’s 1.7% gain. Concerns about slowing global economic activity and rising inflation reappeared after China’s third-quarter GDP growth slowed more than expected. Nevertheless, a technical factor is still weighing on the index as Intesa Sanpaolo (down 3.2%) and General Bank (down 2.1%) traded after ex-dividend. On the other hand, bank business process management (+2.2%) and BPER Bank (+1.6%) was boosted by the assumption of the extension of tax credits for total credit.• Italy FTSE MIB Index - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~ 26536, Support (consolidation) around ~ 25373 & 24656.