The growth in oil quotes is provided by a weaker dollar and statistics from the API on US reserves.

• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

In trading on Wednesday, September 15, the US stock market tried to correct after the recent decline. The locomotive of the S&P 500 growth was the shares of energy companies, which rose in price thanks to the strong dynamics of oil, while the Nasdaq 100 technology index felt less confident and declined for the sixth trading session in a row. The yield on ten-year US government bonds rose slightly after a sharp decline the day before. Today, to the old problems of the US stock market, which have dominated it in recent days, new ones have been added: retail sales in China grew by only 2.5% y / y in August against the consensus forecast of + 7.0%, which turned out to be a record low over the past 12 years. This event resulted from lockdowns and other restrictive measures introduced in the country in response to the worsening epidemiological situation. Industrial production data for August also fell short of forecasts. All this further worsens investor sentiment. The S&P 500 has reached short-term oversold levels, but the overall negative background does not allow it to correct upward so far. Therefore, in the absence of new drivers for growth, the market began to consolidate. A week later, the Fed will hold a meeting at which the regulator can clarify its plans to reduce the asset purchase program. In the meantime, the US stock market is (among other things) under the influence of a negative seasonal factor. September is traditionally the weakest month of the year for the S&P 500, but October and November are known for much better dynamics. AbCellera rose 6% after a multi-year partnership with Moderna to research antibodies for mRNA-based drugs; Berkeley Light shares fell 11.9% after Scorpion Capital announced it was short; GreenSky shares gained 51.8% on news that Goldman Sachs is buying the company for approximately $ 2.24 billion; Roblox shares lost 2.4% after reporting a drop in active users in August; Shares of Wynn Resorts were down 8.1% after dropping 11% the day before. This is a record two-day decline in securities since March 2020. Shares of other casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, and MGM Resorts International have also dropped significantly after reports that the Chinese authorities will tighten requirements for casino operators in Macau, where everyone the above companies also do business; Yum China shares lost 6% after reporting a "significant" decline in August sales compared to the second quarter. European indices were trading in the red. The negative sentiment was received in the morning when the statistics on China came out. Residential property prices in the PRC slowed their growth to 4.2% from 4.6% in July, confirming concerns about cooling demand. Industrial and retail data also showed a significant slowdown in growth amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Again under pressure from shares of manufacturers of luxury goods, whose sales may decline in China due to falling consumer demand. On the contrary, the oil and gas sector showed positive dynamics. Brent climbed above $ 74 a barrel. FTSE 100 - 7035.56 p. (+ 0.02%), DAX - 15705.03 points (-0.11%), CAC 40 - 6615.46 p. (-0.56%). The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and rebounded, and turned red. The ChiNext Index fell more than 1% during the session. The titanium dioxide sector strengthened sharply due to the news of price increases. Jinpu Titanium and other companies rose at a daily limit. Oil and gas stocks rose again. Intercontinental oil and gas and other companies closed the board. PetroChina once rose by 7%. Photovoltaic and wind power have strengthened across the board. Lithium batteries are strong, and Tianji shares and other daily limits. In addition, cyclical sectors such as coal, power, chemical, and steel have collectively pulled up again. The Hongmeng, Industrial Machine, Liquor, and Super Brand sectors weakened. The three major indexes expanded in the afternoon. On Wednesday, Japanese stocks retreated from their 30-year high on the previous day as investors profited from strong gains in the past two weeks. Concerns about China's regulatory actions dragged down SoftBank Group and real estate stocks. The Nikkei index closed down 0.52% to 30,511.71 points. On Tuesday, the index broke through the February peak and hit 30,795.78 points, the highest level since August 1990. The Nikkei has created a "bullish candlestick" pattern when the market closes above the opening level for 12 consecutive days. This is a sign of strong market sentiment. The Topix Stock Index fell 1.06% to 2,096.39 points.SoftBank Group fell 5.8%, as the Chinese government strengthened Alibaba's supervision and other Chinese technology companies, and investors' concerns about SoftBank's risk exposure affected the company.

 

 

• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:

Looking at the last economic data:

- US: The Empire Manufacturing Index rose in September from 18.3 points to 34.3 points (the figure exceeded not only the consensus forecast of 17.9 but also the highest individual forecast by analysts) amid a sharp recovery in orders (to 33, 7 p., A record value in 17 years) and supplies (growth from 22.5 p. To 26.9 p.). The sub-index of selling prices reached a record value at the level of 47.8 p., While the sub-index of selling prices for materials showed a slight decrease but remained at an increased level of 75.7 by historical standards.

- US: The import price index unexpectedly fell in August (-0.3% mom versus the consensus forecast of + 0.2% mom), while the dynamics of industrial production in August turned out to be slightly worse than expected (+ 0.4% mom). m against the consensus forecast at + 0.5% m / m).

- US: The taxation plan of the US Democrats will be discussed in the House of Representatives when negotiating a comprehensive budget settlement bill, and then enter the House of Representatives to vote and with the Senate: The taxation plan of the US Democrats will next be a comprehensive budget settlement in the House of Representatives Discuss the bill during negotiations, and then enter the stage of voting in the House of Representatives and negotiations with the Senate and the White House.

- UK: Inflation in the UK rose 0.7% in August against expectations of growth of 0.5%. In annual terms, the growth rate accelerated to 3.2% against expectations of 2.9%. Thus, the July inflation slowdown to 2.0% turned out to be a temporary phenomenon. In the eurozone, industrial production grew by 1.5% in July against expectations of an increase of 0.6%.

- UK: The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported on September 15 that British Prime Minister Johnson reorganized his cabinet, and International Trade Secretary Liz Truth has been confirmed as the new foreign minister. Terrass will replace Dominic Raab, who was previously transferred to Minister of Justice and Deputy Prime Minister. Downing Street confirmed that Truth would continue to serve as the British Minister of Women and Equality.

- UK: The UK is getting closer to a power outage crisis, and a transmission grid from France has been destroyed by fire. A sudden fire burned from France to A sudden fire burned the power supply from France to Britain. A key cable makes it possible for the UK to face power outages in the winter of 2021. The electricity supply in the UK has reached the point of frightening people. In the future, even if there are any more disasters or unexpected power outages in power plants, it may cause (at least) hundreds of people to lack power. Even before the fire, the power supply capacity set aside by the British National Grid to cope with the cold winter weather had hit a record low in the past five years. After the European market on Wednesday (September 15), a spokesperson for the National Grid said that starting on September 25, 2,000MW transmission cables may have half the capacity to operate. As a result, half of the UK/France IFA-1 power grid will be suspended until March 2022. The National Grid of the United Kingdom needs to assess the full extent of the damage to the grid. Until March 27, 2022, I am afraid that 1000MW will not provide transmission services.

- CN: The National Bureau of Statistics released CPI data for May. China's CPI is generally stable, and there is a trend of structural differentiation. From a month-on-month perspective, CPI fell by 0.2%; from a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 1.1%. From the perspective of the CPI structure, food prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, and the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and fresh fruits all declined to vary degrees. Non-food prices rose by 0.2%, of which the prices of home appliances and decoration materials rose to vary degrees. The apparent structural differentiation of CPI can be attributed to two main reasons: supply factors and seasonal factors have led to a fall in food prices; at the same time, rising prices of bulk raw materials have led to rising prices of industrial products to varying degrees;

- CN: China’s overall stable CPI trend indicates China's economy is recovering rapidly, and there is an expansion trend in many areas. By this trend, through effective government regulation, China's CPI will remain within a reasonable range within this year. At the same time, what needs to be vigilant is that as the United States “pays” for the Biden administration’s huge government investment plan and fiscal deficit financing through the over-issued currency, inflation expectations worldwide continue to increase, as well as the global currency brought about by the over-issued U.S. dollar. The inflation effect and the blocking effect caused by the epidemic's impact on the supply chain have caused the prices of bulk raw materials to continue to rise.

- RU: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 15th saying that Russia called on relevant parties to protect the Korean Peninsula: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 15th saying that Russia called on the Korean Peninsula Stakeholders to exercise restraint and resume dialogue. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that Russia is closely monitoring the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. However, resolving regional issues through political and diplomatic means is the only effective way. In this regard, Russia calls on relevant parties to exercise restraint and demonstrate their willingness to resume dialogue by previous relevant agreements and commitments.

- EU: The European Central Bank decided last week to "moderately reduce" its 1.85 trillion euros (2.2 trillion US dollars) emergency debt purchase plan. President Lagarde insisted that this should not be done. Seen as curtailing stimulus. At the same time, new forecasts show that the current surge in inflation may be temporary, with prices rising by an average of 1.5% in 2023, far below the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

- EU: The ECB warns investors not to focus on bond purchases: A few days after ECB officials decided to slow down asset purchases in the fourth quarter, the bank’s chief economist Philip Lane said that investors When evaluating the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, one should not simply focus on the scale of asset purchases. It is not a good idea to judge monetary policy stance from the number of asset purchases. The effective way is to emphasize persistence. We are pleased that our monetary easing policy strengthens the underlying inflation dynamics and will continue to strengthen over time. Therefore, we have a coherent policy stance.

 

• LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors will receive:

- USD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Business Inventories m/m, Natural Gas Storage, and TIC Long-Term Purchases.

- CAD: Housing Starts, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Foreign Securities Purchases, and Wholesale Sales m/m.

- EUR: Italian Trade Balance, Trade Balance, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, and ECB President Lagarde Speaks.

- AUD: MI Inflation Expectations, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and RBA Bulletin.

- NZD: GDP q/q.

- JPY: Trade Balance.

 

• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

- According to API data, in the week to September 10, commercial oil inventories in the United States fell by 5.4 million barrels, while gasoline inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels. And distillates at 2.9 million bar. In addition, a poll by S&P Global Platts showed that the market is expected to reduce oil reserves by 3.5 million barrels, gasoline by 2.2 million barrels. And distillates at 2.0 million bar.

- Problems with production in the Gulf of Mexico are still enough to compensate for the negative from China, where industrial production growth fell to 5.3% in August against expectations of a decline to 5.8%. There is also a slowdown in oil refining. In August, Chinese factories processed about 11.74 million barrels. Per day compared to 11.91 million bar. Daily processing in July. On an annualized basis, volumes fell 2.2%. However, if we take the data for the first 8 months, the refining volume increased by 7.4% compared to the same period a year ago.

- Key US index futures indicated a multidirectional start from -0.1% in the Dow Jones to + 0.2% in the NASDAQ. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell to nearly 1.27% from 1.29% the previous evening.

- Microsoft announced an 11% increase in its quarterly dividend. As a result, the company's shares traded more than 1% in positive territory during the morning session. It also announced a $ 60 billion share buyback plan.

- Cisco expects that by the 2025 fiscal year, non-GAAP earnings per share will have a compound annual growth rate of 5-7%.

- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced that the US authorities would purchase 1.4 million more drug doses to combat COVID-19. Thus, supplies will increase to 3 million doses.

- American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global is placing 7-year Eurobonds for $ 0.75 billion and 10-year Eurobonds for $ 0.75 billion. We believe that the fair range of returns for 7-year Eurobonds Coinbase Global should be within 3.6% -3, 9%, and 10-year securities in the range of 4% -4.7%. We assume that the company's lower IPO rate ranges are betting on market hype.

- Moody’s has affirmed the credit rating of air carrier easyJet at Baa3 with a stable outlook. The affirmation of the rating is due to the receipt of additional external financing, which improved the company's liquidity.

 

• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:

- High: Energy, Financials, Industrials.

- Low: Utilities.

 

• TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS:

- EUR: The euro against the dollar rose to $ 1.1824 per euro from the previous close of $ 1.1802 per euro. The dollar against the yen fell to 109.32 yen per dollar from 109.67 yen. And the dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies of six countries - the main trading partners of the United States) decreased by 0.17%, to 92.47 points. European investors were optimistic about the statistics on industrial production in the eurozone. Thus, in July, the volume of industrial production in the region increased by 7.7% in annual terms and monthly terms - by 1.5%. However, analysts believed that the indicator in annual terms increased by only 6.3%, and in monthly terms - by 0.6%. Traders are also awaiting US industrial production statistics, which will be released later on Friday. Analysts predicted the index climbed 0.4% after rising 0.9% a month earlier on a monthly basis.

- RUB: The ruble exchange rate is actively strengthening on Wednesday evening, winning back primarily the increasingly expensive oil at the highs since the end of July. Successful placements by the Ministry of Finance of OFZ also contribute to the demand for rubles. In addition, the risk appetite is growing in the global foreign exchange market, as evidenced by the weakening of the dollar in Forex and a decrease in its index (the dollar exchange rate against a basket of currencies of six countries - the main trading partners of the United States) by 0.1%, to 92.5 points, and this is also positive for the ruble. As a result, the dollar exchange rate by settlements "tomorrow" is reduced by 52 kopecks, to 72.38 rubles, the euro rate - by 66 kopecks, to 85.45 rubles, follows from the data of the Moscow Exchange.

- GAS & OIL: The cost of gas in Europe (TTF) soared to almost $ 980 per cubic meter this afternoon. The European gas system is not ready for the heating season. There could only be hope for comfortable weather conditions. However, meteorologists point to cooler weather and longer periods of weak wind, which will negatively affect wind generation and further increase gas demand for electricity and heating. In the afternoon, a correction in gas prices began. However, at that moment, the rate of growth in oil prices increased. The US Energy Information Administration, in its weekly report on reserves of oil and petroleum products, reported a much more significant decrease in reserves than analysts had predicted. Brent's quotes rose to $ 76.12 / bbl. It is a new two-month high. The oil and gas sector grew by 0.4% by the end of the day (+ 6.7% in September, + 25% since the beginning of the year).

- GOLD: The price of gold on Wednesday evening falls and has again found itself below the level of 1.8 thousand dollars per ounce. At the same time, traders continue to assess the prospects for further decisions of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), according to trading data. The price of December gold futures on the New York Comex stock exchange decreased by 0.67%, or by $ 12.05, to $ 1,795.05 per troy ounce. December silver futures are down 0.63% to $ 23,735 an ounce. In the morning, gold prices dropped slightly, holding above $ 1,800 per ounce. The macro statistics released yesterday influenced gold quotes. Annual inflation in the US slowed down to 5.3% in August from 5.4% a month earlier, and in August, prices rose 0.3%. These data may affect the further policy of the FRS, the next meeting of which will take place on September 21-22. And the impact of possible new decisions affects the financial market by changing the dollar exchange rate and debt yields. So, high-interest rates on debt make US government bonds more attractive than "paper" gold. With a weaker dollar, the precious metal becomes more affordable when bought in another currency.

- PLATINUM: Spot platinum rose above the US$940.00/ounce mark, the latest reported at US$940.11/ounce, down 0.41% on the daily chart; Nymex platinum: Spot platinum rose above the US$940.00/ounce mark, the latest reported at US$940.11/ounce, daily chart fell 0.41%; the latest major Nymex platinum futures reported at US$928.6 per ounce, and the daily chart fell 1.08%.

 

• CHART OF THE DAY:

Crude oil inventories fell 6.4 million barrels to 417.4 million barrels, a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. A decline of 3.5 million barrels was previously expected, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drop in stocks for the week by 5.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels from the previous week to 218.1 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell 1.7 million barrels to 111.6 million barrels. The strong drop in crude oil inventories reflects unrecovered production, while the moderate decline in oil product inventories reflects the reopening of the Gulf Coast refinery. Stocks in strategic reserves fell by 0.5 million barrels to 620.8 million barrels. The market received official confirmation of compensation for the lack of oil in the market from the strategic reserve. The dynamics of oil reserves show that the availability of crude oil in the US domestic market is decreasing. The stocks curve in September went to the lower boundary of the average long-term corridor. As of September 10, domestic oil production in the United States increased by 0.1 million barrels per day, amounting to 10.1 million barrels per day. The protracted recovery of platforms in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Ida and Storm Nicholas continues to negatively impact production. As of September 14, production of about 0.72 million barrels per day remained at a standstill, 39 platforms out of 288 in the Gulf of Mexico remained idle. US oil imports as of September 10 fell to 5.761 million barrels (-0.8% to September 3, 2021). US oil exports rose to 2.624 million barrels (+ 12% by September 3, 2021). Near futures prices for Brent crude tested $ 76 per barrel at the time of the publication of data on reserves, while the near contract for WTI rose to $ 73.0 per barrel.• Brent Crude oil - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~ 77.94, Support (target zone) around ~ 70.50 & 67.40

 

Start trading in four simple steps

1. Register

Open your live trading account

2. Verify

Upload your documents to verify your account

3. Fund

Deposit funds directly into your account

4. Trade

Start trading and choose from 130+ instruments

Demo account

The Blue Suisse Trading Account with virtual funds in a risk-free environment

Demo account

Live account

The Blue Suisse Trading Account in our transparent live model environment

Open an Account
Risk Warning; CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.35% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
x
Spotify Logo Apple Podcasts Logo Anchor Podcasts Logo