• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

The US stock market fluctuated between a slight decline and a rise on Wednesday, and the market barely reacted to another dovish stance of the Fed. The U.S. Central Bank decided to keep interest rates and the pace of its quantitative easing program unchanged, and policymakers described the pace of recovery is vital. On the corporate side, the financial reports released by Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft show that demand for digital services and electronic products continues to soar. Pfizer's quarterly results were also better than expected. The company raised its vaccine sales forecast for 2021 from $26 billion to $33.5 billion. Boeing also announced its first profit in six quarters. Ford and Facebook will release reports after the closing bell. Most major European stock markets rebounded after falling for two consecutive days on Wednesday, and investors bought sell-off stocks in the technology sector. The shift in sentiment was accompanied by several companies such as Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank, and Santander Bank. British American Tobacco's revenue in the first half of the year was better than expected, and Rio Tinto achieved record profits in the first half of the year. Driven by the crackdown on technology and education companies, the Asian market has seen a sell-off, showing signs of a pause, which has intensified market optimism. In terms of economic data, GfK data showed that consumer confidence in Germany in August was the same as last month and did not reach market consensus. French consumer morale fell slightly in July, which was also lower than expected. Domestically, the benchmark DAX 30 index rose slightly, approaching 15,600 points. The London stock market closed higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 index closing above 7,000 points, led by materials-related stocks. The strong earnings momentum boosted market sentiment, and the Fed is also expected to make an interest rate decision later in the day. On the occasion of the commodity boom this year, Rio Tinto achieved record profits in the first half of the year. British American Tobacco reported that due to the increase in e-cigarette consumption, revenue in the first half of the year was better than expected. Barclays's profit in the second quarter also exceeded expectations. In terms of economic data, data from national mortgage lenders show that house prices in the UK fell by 0.5% in July from the previous month. Before this, the emergency tax cuts for the coronavirus for homebuyers were curtailed at the end of June. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 20 points or 0.6% to close at 3361 points, the fourth consecutive trading day of decline, but the decline has eased from the previous three trading days. Chinese state-owned security previously reported that the recent sell-off is not systemic. Risks, China's macroeconomy is still in a steady rebound stage, and short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term prospects of A-shares. At the same time, the Institute of International Finance estimates that after a US$2 billion outflow from China’s stock market on Monday, there was an outflow of US$600 million on Tuesday. In terms of economic prospects, the IMF on Tuesday lowered its GDP growth forecast for emerging markets in Asia in 2021 due to the surge in COVID-19 cases caused by new variants and slow vaccination. After the government has cut spending, China’s COVID-19 claims have been reduced to 8.1. %. On Wednesday, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted 389 points or 1.4%, to close at 27581 points. This was the first drop in four trading days. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced Japan’s economic growth forecast for this year from the previous 3.3%. After the downward adjustment to 2.8%, traders have moved away from higher-risk assets. At the same time, the Japanese Cabinet Minister expressed a strong sense of urgency for the 2,848 daily record cases of the virus in Tokyo on Tuesday. Due to the Chinese government's regulatory crackdown on the education, technology, and real estate industries, Asian stock markets fell sharply. Wall Street stocks fell overnight, and market sentiment was also affected. According to reports in business news, Toyota Motor Corp will suspend three other assembly lines in Japan in August due to the disruption of the Vietnamese supply chain. Investors are currently waiting for the Fed’s policy statement at the end of the two-day meeting later in the day. The Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index fell 52 points or 0.7% on Wednesday to close at 7379 points. The index took profit after hitting a new high on the previous trading day. At the same time, traders are waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to find a time when policymakers face a surge in U.S. inflation. From a data point of view, Australia’s annual inflation rate in the second quarter jumped from 1.1% in the first quarter to 3.8%, the highest level in 11 years. This was due to the base effect after implementing free nurseries and fuel prices in the second quarter of 2020. The record fell. In the United States, durable goods orders rose 0.8% month-on-month in June, lower than expected. In terms of the flu pandemic, Australia will extend the lockdown of COVID-19 in Sydney. Despite the strict implementation of the stay-at-home order for a month, new cases are still high, while Victoria and South Australia will relax from Wednesday. Restrictions on COVID-19. Nickel Mines Co., Ltd. plunged 11%, while Red Bubble Co., Ltd. fell 6.7%.

 

• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:

Looking at the last economic data:

- US: At the July 2021 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and purchased bonds at the current rate of $120 billion per month. This decision meets people's expectations. In addition, officials emphasized that economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen, and the sectors most severely affected by the epidemic have improved. However, progress has not yet been fully restored, and risks to the economic outlook still exist.

- US: Forecasts show that the US merchandise trade deficit widened from US$88.16 billion last month to US$91.21 billion in June 2021, not far from the historical high of US$91.92 set in March. Exports increased slightly by 0.3%. The increase in sales of industrial products (2.2%), automobiles (1.7%), and consumer goods (0.7%) were partially offset by the decline in food, feed, and beverages (8.7%) and capital goods (0.1%). Imports increased by 1.5%, driven by the purchase of industrial supplies (8.5%), food, feed, and beverages (4.0%), and capital goods (1.1%). At the same time, purchases of automobiles and consumer goods fell by 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.

- RU: In May 2021, Russia's real wages increased by 3.3% year-on-year, a slowdown from the 7.8% increase in the previous month, but easily exceeded market expectations of 2.2%. At the same time, the average nominal wage rose by 9.5% to 56,171 rubles.

- RU: In June 2021, Russia's retail sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year, increasing by 27.2% in the previous month, while the market expected an increase of 12%. However, this is the third consecutive month that the retail industry has risen. Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 1.1% in May.

- RU: The unemployment rate in Russia fell from 4.9% last month to 4.8% in June 2021, lower than the 5.0% forecast by analysts. This is the lowest rate since March last year, but it is still slightly higher than the pre-pandemic level. The number of unemployed fell by 110,000 from last month to 3.58 million, and the number of officially registered unemployed fell by 170,000 to 1.42 million.

- CA: Canada’s annual inflation rate fell from 3.6% in May to 3.1% in June 2021, the highest level in 10 years. This figure is lower than the market forecast of 3.2%, and last year's base effect is still significant. Prices rose by 0.7% in June 2020 and fell by 0.4% in May 2020, which led to a slowdown in inflation in June 2021. Housing (+4.4%) and transportation (+5.6%) prices contributed the most to the growth of all projects, but prices for four of the eight major components in June experienced slower year-on-year growth. The development of the apparel and footwear segment has slowed the most, mainly due to lower prices for women's clothing. In addition, the increase in gasoline prices in June was smaller than that in May (+32.0%). Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year.

- SW: In June 2021, Sweden's retail sales increased by 8.5% over the same period of the previous year. During the last month, the country's retail sales rose by 10.7%, a 21-year high. However, sales growth slowed mainly in other household equipment stores (7.1% in May and 10.3% in May); other goods (16.9% vs. 19.9%); and information and communication equipment (16.9% vs. 19.1%). At the same time, retail sales in non-professional stores (5.4% vs. 4.9%) and external stores (12.9% vs. 12.2%) have proliferated. In contrast, cultural and recreational goods stores have lower sales (4.2% and 1.7%, respectively). As a result, the seasonally adjusted monthly retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month after retail sales rose 2.4% in May.

- EU: The Italian consumer confidence index soared from 115.1 last month to 116.6 in July 2021, the highest level since September 2018 and much higher than market expectations of 115.5. Economic growth (increased from 126.9 to 129.6), personal development (risen from 111.1 to 112.2), and liquidity growth (risen from 126.9 to 129.6) were the main reasons for economic growth. On the contrary, the less clear signal comes from the future climate index (123.5 vs. 125.5).

- EU: The Italian manufacturing confidence index rose from 114.8 in the previous month to 115.7 in July 2021, higher than market expectations of 115.4 and the highest level since September 2000. Although the number of infections has increased in recent weeks, the coronavirus limits continue to relax. As a result, the order book balance increased (from 6.5 to 8.9), and the inventory balance decreased (from -1.2 to -2). On the other hand, expectations for future output have fallen (from 19.7 to 19.1). At the same time, a comprehensive survey of manufacturing, retail, construction, and service industries showed that the comprehensive corporate morale index climbed from 112.8 in June to 116.3 in July, which is the highest since the launch of the current data series in March 2005 Level.

- EU: In June 2021, German import prices rose by 12.9% year-on-year, higher than the 11.8% increase in the previous month and exceeding market expectations by 12.6%. This is the most significant annual increase in import prices since October 1981. Energy costs have risen by 88.5%, mainly due to natural gas (150%) and crude oil (81.8%). In addition, the price of imported intermediate products rose by 17.1%, affected by iron ore (97.4%), copper (49.9%), primary plastics (44%), sawn timber and particleboard (43.9%), veneer, plywood, wood fiber and particleboard (41.8%) boosted. The price of agricultural products rose by 7.6% from June 2020, led by natural rubber (49.1%), green coffee (30.1%), and grains (19.6%). On a monthly basis, import prices rose 1.6% after increasing 1.7% in May, which also exceeded expectations of 1.5%.

- EU: In July 2021, the French consumer confidence index fell to 101 from 103 last month, which was lower than the 102 expected by the market. The main reasons for the decline are the expected deterioration in the standard of living (23 to 15), family financial status (1 to 2), main purchase intention (7 to 2), willingness to save (31 to 35), and unemployment rate (27 to 24). However, the index is still higher than the long-term average (100).

- CN: The Chinese stock market fell 19 points. AVIC Aviation Engine (-6.70%), Zijin Mining Group (-5.36%), and AVIC Heibao (-4.45%) led to the decline. To offset the fall, the top gainers were UFIDA (2.78%), Sanan Optoelectronics (2.27%), and China Merchants Bank (2.23%).

- UK: In July 2021, the annual growth rate of UK house prices fell from 13.4% the previous month to 10.5%, which was lower than market expectations of 12.1%. From a monthly point of view, house prices fell by 0.5%, contrary to the 0.7% rise in June, and a far cry from the 0.6% rise generally believed by the market. "Basic demand may remain stable in the short term. Consumer confidence has rebounded in recent months, while borrowing costs remain low. This, coupled with insufficient market supply, indicates that housing prices continue to be supported. However, when we look towards the end of the year, the outlook is more challenging to predict. National Chief Economist Robert Gardner said that in the period after the stamp duty holiday expires at the end of September, market activity will almost inevitably slow down because people have the incentive to advance Purchase goods to avoid additional taxes.

- JP: Japan’s index of leading economic indicators is an indicator that measures economic conditions in the next few months. The index is compiled using data such as employment opportunities and consumer confidence. In May 2021, the index was 102.6. The initial value was revised, and the index was 103.8 a month ago, which is the highest level since February 2014. This decline highlights the slowdown in the economy recovering from the coronavirus pandemic following a new round of COVID-19 infections in many parts of the country.

- JP: Japan's May economic indicator index (including a series of data such as factory output, employment, and retail sales) was 92.1, while the data a month ago were 92.1 and 95.3. Since February, this was the lowest level when COVID-19 infections reappeared in some parts of the country, and coronavirus vaccination was slow.

 

• LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors will receive:

- USD: Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales m/m, and Natural Gas Storage.

- EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, Spanish Unemployment Rate, Italian 10-y Bond Auction, and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

- GBP: M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals m/m.

- NZD: ANZ Business Confidence.

- AUD: Import Prices q/q.

 

• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

- FR40 rises to a 4-week high of 6592.

- The Japanese stock market fell 389 points. SoftBank (-3.63%), Sumitomo Dalibang (-3.19%) and JGC (-2.86%) led the decline.

- The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly to 1.26% on Wednesday, after the Fed hinted that as the economy improves, it has made progress in gradually reducing the conditions for bond purchases. Despite this, policymakers did not provide details on the timetable and mechanism for the gradual reduction and emphasized that risks to the outlook still exist. At the same time, concerns about the rapid spread of the coronavirus delta variant and its impact on the economy are still the focus of attention. As a result, the Federal Administration recommends a new mask to prevent the virus from spreading again.

- European futures opened lower on Wednesday, and investors awaited a new round of corporate earnings reports from British American Tobacco, GlaxoSmithKline, Rio Tinto, BASF, and Santander. At the same time, both Deutsche Bank and Barclays' second-quarter profits exceeded expectations. In addition, global investors await the results of a two-day policy meeting held by the Federal Reserve later in the day. In terms of economic data, German Gfk shows that consumer confidence in Germany in August was the same as that of the previous month, which did not reach the market consensus on improvement.

- US stock market futures were mixed on Wednesday after Wall Street fell from a record high overnight. Market participants were cautious before announcing the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the day. At the same time, concerns about the rapid spread of contagious delta mutations Still exist. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that, boosted by President Biden’s ambitious spending plan, the U.S. economy is currently expected to grow by 7% this year, a sharp reversal from last year’s 3.5% decline and a 6.4% increase from April. In addition, % Growth is expected to increase. On the company side, 3M and General Electric’s earnings unexpectedly rose, while Tesla’s Monday announced earnings were stronger than expected, with net income reaching a record $1.1 billion. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones index fell 86 points to close at 35,058 points, a decrease of 0.24%; the S&P 500 index fell 21 points to close at 4401 points, a reduction of 0.47%; the Nasdaq index fell 190 points to close at 14,661 points, a decrease of 1.2 %.

 

• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:

- High: Communication Services, Energy, Health Care.

- Low: Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Staples.

 

• TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS:

- USD: The US dollar index rose slightly to 92.7 and recovered to around 92.5 on Wednesday as investors digested the more prudent Federal Reserve monetary policy statement. Policymakers said that the economy had made progress in achieving inflation and employment targets and that reduction negotiations may begin soon while emphasizing that there are still risks to the economic outlook. In terms of prices, policymakers reiterated that inflation has risen due to temporary factors. The U.S. dollar hit a four-month high of 93.19 in early July, continuing the rebound since mid-June. Previously, the Fed significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and advanced the time frame for raising interest rates. In addition, the rapid spread of variants of the Coronavirus Delta was triggered. Concerns about growth.

- OIL: According to data from the EIA Oil Condition Report, in the week of July 23, US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.089 million barrels, after an increase of 2.108 million barrels in the previous week, while the market generally believes that it fell by 2.928 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell by 2.253 million barrels, more than the forecast reduction of 916,000 barrels.

 

• CHART OF THE DAY:

The CAC 40 index rebounded strongly, rising 1.1% on Wednesday to 6,609 points, a level never seen in the past month, outperforming its European counterparts, and optimistic earnings avoided concerns about the flu pandemic and inflation. Heavyweight stock Kering rose 3.6%. The French luxury goods group announced a 95% sales increase of €4.16 billion in the second quarter, including the removal of health restrictions and the strong performance of Gucci's business. At the same time, the company's managing director said that the group is paying attention to possible acquisition targets. In addition, French software company Capgemini achieved organic growth of 12.9% in the second quarter, an increase of more than 3.8%, thanks to the strong performance of its business and the improvement of its full-year prospects.

• French CAC40 index - D1, Resistance around (target zone) ~ 6726, Support (target zone) around ~ 6401 and 6173.

• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: The US stock market fluctuated between a slight decline and a rise on Wednesday, and the market barely reacted to another dovish stance of the Fed. The U.S. Central Bank decided to keep interest rates and the pace of its quantitative easing program unchanged, and policymakers described the pace of recovery is vital. On the corporate side, the financial reports released by Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft show that demand for digital services and electronic products continues to soar. Pfizer's quarterly results were also better than expected. The company raised its vaccine sales forecast for 2021 from $26 billion to $33.5 billion. Boeing also announced its first profit in six quarters. Ford and Facebook will release reports after the closing bell. Most major European stock markets rebounded after falling for two consecutive days on Wednesday, and investors bought sell-off stocks in the technology sector. The shift in sentiment was accompanied by several companies such as Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank, and Santander Bank. British American Tobacco's revenue in the first half of the year was better than expected, and Rio Tinto achieved record profits in the first half of the year. Driven by the crackdown on technology and education companies, the Asian market has seen a sell-off, showing signs of a pause, which has intensified market optimism. In terms of economic data, GfK data showed that consumer confidence in Germany in August was the same as last month and did not reach market consensus. French consumer morale fell slightly in July, which was also lower than expected. Domestically, the benchmark DAX 30 index rose slightly, approaching 15,600 points. The London stock market closed higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 index closing above 7,000 points, led by materials-related stocks. The strong earnings momentum boosted market sentiment, and the Fed is also expected to make an interest rate decision later in the day. On the occasion of the commodity boom this year, Rio Tinto achieved record profits in the first half of the year. British American Tobacco reported that due to the increase in e-cigarette consumption, revenue in the first half of the year was better than expected. Barclays's profit in the second quarter also exceeded expectations. In terms of economic data, data from national mortgage lenders show that house prices in the UK fell by 0.5% in July from the previous month. Before this, the emergency tax cuts for the coronavirus for homebuyers were curtailed at the end of June. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 20 points or 0.6% to close at 3361 points, the fourth consecutive trading day of decline, but the decline has eased from the previous three trading days. Chinese state-owned security previously reported that the recent sell-off is not systemic. Risks, China's macroeconomy is still in a steady rebound stage, and short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term prospects of A-shares. At the same time, the Institute of International Finance estimates that after a US$2 billion outflow from China’s stock market on Monday, there was an outflow of US$600 million on Tuesday. In terms of economic prospects, the IMF on Tuesday lowered its GDP growth forecast for emerging markets in Asia in 2021 due to the surge in COVID-19 cases caused by new variants and slow vaccination. After the government has cut spending, China’s COVID-19 claims have been reduced to 8.1. %. On Wednesday, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted 389 points or 1.4%, to close at 27581 points. This was the first drop in four trading days. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced Japan’s economic growth forecast for this year from the previous 3.3%. After the downward adjustment to 2.8%, traders have moved away from higher-risk assets. At the same time, the Japanese Cabinet Minister expressed a strong sense of urgency for the 2,848 daily record cases of the virus in Tokyo on Tuesday. Due to the Chinese government's regulatory crackdown on the education, technology, and real estate industries, Asian stock markets fell sharply. Wall Street stocks fell overnight, and market sentiment was also affected. According to reports in business news, Toyota Motor Corp will suspend three other assembly lines in Japan in August due to the disruption of the Vietnamese supply chain. Investors are currently waiting for the Fed’s policy statement at the end of the two-day meeting later in the day. The Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index fell 52 points or 0.7% on Wednesday to close at 7379 points. The index took profit after hitting a new high on the previous trading day. At the same time, traders are waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to find a time when policymakers face a surge in U.S. inflation. From a data point of view, Australia’s annual inflation rate in the second quarter jumped from 1.1% in the first quarter to 3.8%, the highest level in 11 years. This was due to the base effect after implementing free nurseries and fuel prices in the second quarter of 2020. The record fell. In the United States, durable goods orders rose 0.8% month-on-month in June, lower than expected. In terms of the flu pandemic, Australia will extend the lockdown of COVID-19 in Sydney. Despite the strict implementation of the stay-at-home order for a month, new cases are still high, while Victoria and South Australia will relax from Wednesday. Restrictions on COVID-19. Nickel Mines Co., Ltd. plunged 11%, while Red Bubble Co., Ltd. fell 6.7%.   • REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA: Looking at the last economic data: - US: At the July 2021 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and purchased bonds at the current rate of $120 billion per month. This decision meets people's expectations. In addition, officials emphasized that economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen, and the sectors most severely affected by the epidemic have improved. However, progress has not yet been fully restored, and risks to the economic outlook still exist. - US: Forecasts show that the US merchandise trade deficit widened from US$88.16 billion last month to US$91.21 billion in June 2021, not far from the historical high of US$91.92 set in March. Exports increased slightly by 0.3%. The increase in sales of industrial products (2.2%), automobiles (1.7%), and consumer goods (0.7%) were partially offset by the decline in food, feed, and beverages (8.7%) and capital goods (0.1%). Imports increased by 1.5%, driven by the purchase of industrial supplies (8.5%), food, feed, and beverages (4.0%), and capital goods (1.1%). At the same time, purchases of automobiles and consumer goods fell by 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. - RU: In May 2021, Russia's real wages increased by 3.3% year-on-year, a slowdown from the 7.8% increase in the previous month, but easily exceeded market expectations of 2.2%. At the same time, the average nominal wage rose by 9.5% to 56,171 rubles. - RU: In June 2021, Russia's retail sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year, increasing by 27.2% in the previous month, while the market expected an increase of 12%. However, this is the third consecutive month that the retail industry has risen. Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 1.1% in May. - RU: The unemployment rate in Russia fell from 4.9% last month to 4.8% in June 2021, lower than the 5.0% forecast by analysts. This is the lowest rate since March last year, but it is still slightly higher than the pre-pandemic level. The number of unemployed fell by 110,000 from last month to 3.58 million, and the number of officially registered unemployed fell by 170,000 to 1.42 million. - CA: Canada’s annual inflation rate fell from 3.6% in May to 3.1% in June 2021, the highest level in 10 years. This figure is lower than the market forecast of 3.2%, and last year's base effect is still significant. Prices rose by 0.7% in June 2020 and fell by 0.4% in May 2020, which led to a slowdown in inflation in June 2021. Housing (+4.4%) and transportation (+5.6%) prices contributed the most to the growth of all projects, but prices for four of the eight major components in June experienced slower year-on-year growth. The development of the apparel and footwear segment has slowed the most, mainly due to lower prices for women's clothing. In addition, the increase in gasoline prices in June was smaller than that in May (+32.0%). Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year. - SW: In June 2021, Sweden's retail sales increased by 8.5% over the same period of the previous year. During the last month, the country's retail sales rose by 10.7%, a 21-year high. However, sales growth slowed mainly in other household equipment stores (7.1% in May and 10.3% in May); other goods (16.9% vs. 19.9%); and information and communication equipment (16.9% vs. 19.1%). At the same time, retail sales in non-professional stores (5.4% vs. 4.9%) and external stores (12.9% vs. 12.2%) have proliferated. In contrast, cultural and recreational goods stores have lower sales (4.2% and 1.7%, respectively). As a result, the seasonally adjusted monthly retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month after retail sales rose 2.4% in May. - EU: The Italian consumer confidence index soared from 115.1 last month to 116.6 in July 2021, the highest level since September 2018 and much higher than market expectations of 115.5. Economic growth (increased from 126.9 to 129.6), personal development (risen from 111.1 to 112.2), and liquidity growth (risen from 126.9 to 129.6) were the main reasons for economic growth. On the contrary, the less clear signal comes from the future climate index (123.5 vs. 125.5). - EU: The Italian manufacturing confidence index rose from 114.8 in the previous month to 115.7 in July 2021, higher than market expectations of 115.4 and the highest level since September 2000. Although the number of infections has increased in recent weeks, the coronavirus limits continue to relax. As a result, the order book balance increased (from 6.5 to 8.9), and the inventory balance decreased (from -1.2 to -2). On the other hand, expectations for future output have fallen (from 19.7 to 19.1). At the same time, a comprehensive survey of manufacturing, retail, construction, and service industries showed that the comprehensive corporate morale index climbed from 112.8 in June to 116.3 in July, which is the highest since the launch of the current data series in March 2005 Level. - EU: In June 2021, German import prices rose by 12.9% year-on-year, higher than the 11.8% increase in the previous month and exceeding market expectations by 12.6%. This is the most significant annual increase in import prices since October 1981. Energy costs have risen by 88.5%, mainly due to natural gas (150%) and crude oil (81.8%). In addition, the price of imported intermediate products rose by 17.1%, affected by iron ore (97.4%), copper (49.9%), primary plastics (44%), sawn timber and particleboard (43.9%), veneer, plywood, wood fiber and particleboard (41.8%) boosted. The price of agricultural products rose by 7.6% from June 2020, led by natural rubber (49.1%), green coffee (30.1%), and grains (19.6%). On a monthly basis, import prices rose 1.6% after increasing 1.7% in May, which also exceeded expectations of 1.5%. - EU: In July 2021, the French consumer confidence index fell to 101 from 103 last month, which was lower than the 102 expected by the market. The main reasons for the decline are the expected deterioration in the standard of living (23 to 15), family financial status (1 to 2), main purchase intention (7 to 2), willingness to save (31 to 35), and unemployment rate (27 to 24). However, the index is still higher than the long-term average (100). - CN: The Chinese stock market fell 19 points. AVIC Aviation Engine (-6.70%), Zijin Mining Group (-5.36%), and AVIC Heibao (-4.45%) led to the decline. To offset the fall, the top gainers were UFIDA (2.78%), Sanan Optoelectronics (2.27%), and China Merchants Bank (2.23%). - UK: In July 2021, the annual growth rate of UK house prices fell from 13.4% the previous month to 10.5%, which was lower than market expectations of 12.1%. From a monthly point of view, house prices fell by 0.5%, contrary to the 0.7% rise in June, and a far cry from the 0.6% rise generally believed by the market. "Basic demand may remain stable in the short term. Consumer confidence has rebounded in recent months, while borrowing costs remain low. This, coupled with insufficient market supply, indicates that housing prices continue to be supported. However, when we look towards the end of the year, the outlook is more challenging to predict. National Chief Economist Robert Gardner said that in the period after the stamp duty holiday expires at the end of September, market activity will almost inevitably slow down because people have the incentive to advance Purchase goods to avoid additional taxes. - JP: Japan’s index of leading economic indicators is an indicator that measures economic conditions in the next few months. The index is compiled using data such as employment opportunities and consumer confidence. In May 2021, the index was 102.6. The initial value was revised, and the index was 103.8 a month ago, which is the highest level since February 2014. This decline highlights the slowdown in the economy recovering from the coronavirus pandemic following a new round of COVID-19 infections in many parts of the country. - JP: Japan's May economic indicator index (including a series of data such as factory output, employment, and retail sales) was 92.1, while the data a month ago were 92.1 and 95.3. Since February, this was the lowest level when COVID-19 infections reappeared in some parts of the country, and coronavirus vaccination was slow.   • LOOKING AHEAD: Today, investors will receive: - USD: Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales m/m, and Natural Gas Storage. - EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, Spanish Unemployment Rate, Italian 10-y Bond Auction, and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. - GBP: M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals m/m. - NZD: ANZ Business Confidence. - AUD: Import Prices q/q.   • KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS: - FR40 rises to a 4-week high of 6592. - The Japanese stock market fell 389 points. SoftBank (-3.63%), Sumitomo Dalibang (-3.19%) and JGC (-2.86%) led the decline. - The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly to 1.26% on Wednesday, after the Fed hinted that as the economy improves, it has made progress in gradually reducing the conditions for bond purchases. Despite this, policymakers did not provide details on the timetable and mechanism for the gradual reduction and emphasized that risks to the outlook still exist. At the same time, concerns about the rapid spread of the coronavirus delta variant and its impact on the economy are still the focus of attention. As a result, the Federal Administration recommends a new mask to prevent the virus from spreading again. - European futures opened lower on Wednesday, and investors awaited a new round of corporate earnings reports from British American Tobacco, GlaxoSmithKline, Rio Tinto, BASF, and Santander. At the same time, both Deutsche Bank and Barclays' second-quarter profits exceeded expectations. In addition, global investors await the results of a two-day policy meeting held by the Federal Reserve later in the day. In terms of economic data, German Gfk shows that consumer confidence in Germany in August was the same as that of the previous month, which did not reach the market consensus on improvement. - US stock market futures were mixed on Wednesday after Wall Street fell from a record high overnight. Market participants were cautious before announcing the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the day. At the same time, concerns about the rapid spread of contagious delta mutations Still exist. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that, boosted by President Biden’s ambitious spending plan, the U.S. economy is currently expected to grow by 7% this year, a sharp reversal from last year’s 3.5% decline and a 6.4% increase from April. In addition, % Growth is expected to increase. On the company side, 3M and General Electric’s earnings unexpectedly rose, while Tesla’s Monday announced earnings were stronger than expected, with net income reaching a record $1.1 billion. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones index fell 86 points to close at 35,058 points, a decrease of 0.24%; the S&P 500 index fell 21 points to close at 4401 points, a reduction of 0.47%; the Nasdaq index fell 190 points to close at 14,661 points, a decrease of 1.2 %.   • STOCK MARKET SECTORS: - High: Communication Services, Energy, Health Care. - Low: Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Staples.   • TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS: - USD: The US dollar index rose slightly to 92.7 and recovered to around 92.5 on Wednesday as investors digested the more prudent Federal Reserve monetary policy statement. Policymakers said that the economy had made progress in achieving inflation and employment targets and that reduction negotiations may begin soon while emphasizing that there are still risks to the economic outlook. In terms of prices, policymakers reiterated that inflation has risen due to temporary factors. The U.S. dollar hit a four-month high of 93.19 in early July, continuing the rebound since mid-June. Previously, the Fed significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and advanced the time frame for raising interest rates. In addition, the rapid spread of variants of the Coronavirus Delta was triggered. Concerns about growth. - OIL: According to data from the EIA Oil Condition Report, in the week of July 23, US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.089 million barrels, after an increase of 2.108 million barrels in the previous week, while the market generally believes that it fell by 2.928 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell by 2.253 million barrels, more than the forecast reduction of 916,000 barrels.   • CHART OF THE DAY: The CAC 40 index rebounded strongly, rising 1.1% on Wednesday to 6,609 points, a level never seen in the past month, outperforming its European counterparts, and optimistic earnings avoided concerns about the flu pandemic and inflation. Heavyweight stock Kering rose 3.6%. The French luxury goods group announced a 95% sales increase of €4.16 billion in the second quarter, including the removal of health restrictions and the strong performance of Gucci's business. At the same time, the company's managing director said that the group is paying attention to possible acquisition targets. In addition, French software company Capgemini achieved organic growth of 12.9% in the second quarter, an increase of more than 3.8%, thanks to the strong performance of its business and the improvement of its full-year prospects. • French CAC40 index - D1, Resistance around (target zone) ~ 6726, Support (target zone) around ~ 6401 and 6173.