• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

The US stock market fluctuated between a small decline and a rise on Thursday, and the disappointing report of jobless claims dampened domestic investors' sentiment. In the past week, the number of first-time jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a two-month high of 419,000. While the market is already a little uneasy about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant, this has further raised concerns about the strength of the labor market recovery. Due to the disappointment in Washington, investors turned to the safe trading of large technology stocks, pushing the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, to the upside range. At the same time, AT&T, Abbot, Biogen, and Blackstone performed better than expected. Intel will also release a report after the close today. Refinitiv's data shows that so far, 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has announced earnings, of which 88% exceeded earnings expectations. European stock markets rose for the third consecutive trading day on Thursday. The benchmark DAX30 index closed above 15,500 points. Investors welcomed another dovish pledge by the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain a loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future. The European Central Bank will keep the pace of the quantitative easing program unchanged and maintain negative interest rates to support the eurozone economy until substantial progress is made in achieving employment and inflation targets. Since the central bank predicts that the inflation rate will not fall below 2% until at least 2023, the above guidelines mentioned above further push forward interest rate hike expectations. In addition to the European Central Bank, optimism about economic growth and a strong recovery in earnings has also increased risk appetite. On the company side, private equity firm EQT announced oppromisingirst-half results, with its stock price rising more than 12%. The CAC40 index rose for the third consecutive trading day on Thursday, closing at 6482 points, an increase of 0.3%, which was the same as its European counterparts. Previously, market participants digested the July meeting's European Central Bank’s commitment to maintaining inflation before the 2% target continued. The ultra-loose monetary policy stance. So far, the optimistic earnings season has also boosted market sentiment. French advertising group Publicis announced an organic growth of 17.1% in basic quarterly sales, which was higher than the expected 12.9%. Currently, the organization is expected to recover from the epidemic gap a year earlier than expected. In terms of data, the French manufacturing boom index rose to 110 points in July, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 107 points, a three-year high. The London stock market performed poorly at the close on Thursday. The benchmark FTSE 100 index closed below 7000 points. The weakness of major consumer goods stocks offset the rise of industrial stocks. Consumer goods giant Unilever led the decline, falling nearly 6% after the company lowered its annual operating profit forecast due to soaring commodity costs and announced that basic sales growth in the second quarter was higher than expected. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) pledged to maintain interest rates at record lows for longer periods to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target level. On Thursday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose 12 points or 03% to close at a three-week high of 3575 points, rising for the second consecutive trading day. Chinese official media reported that China would continue to open up its financial industry and improve foreign banks and insurance. The company’s market entry rules. After Wall Street continued its rally overnight, traders were also optimistic, and market participants were dismissive of the spread of Delta variables and its impact on the global economy. According to Reuters, Nanjing, China, has begun large-scale COVID-19 testing of 9.3 million people and suspended a subway line because the city is facing the latest local virus cluster. At the same time, the China National Medical Products Administration will give the green light to Comirnaty, the first foreign-made mRNA vaccine. In business news, China Evergrande, the most indebted developer in China, said in a statement today that it has settled a legal dispute with a local bank, China Guangfabank. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 47 points to 7355 in early trading on Thursday, the second consecutive day of gains. Following the further rise in the US stock market overnight, the optimistic quarterly results boosted people’s confidence in the pace of economic recovery. . It is reported that BHP Billiton has signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla. The company will cooperate with the electric car manufacturer to reduce carbon emissions. Traders are pleased with this. In terms of COVID-19, Queensland will close its border with New South Wales for four weeks starting at 1:00 am on Friday, while Victoria has recorded 26 new cases today, from September 18, 2020. The highest daily increase since. Orocobre Ltd soared 10.6% to a record high and then fell slightly after JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for the company. It is hoped that the lithium resource exploration company will merge with Galaxy Resources Limited's (Galaxy Resources Limited) proposed merger. It has benefited a lot from it, and at the same time, profited from the high lithium spot price. At the same time, Pilbara Mining's stock price soared 9.3%. New Zealand's major stock indexes continued their upward momentum for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. The benchmark NZX 50 index hovered around 12750 points. The rise in financial stocks offset the decline in energy stocks. In the absence of any catalyst, investors weighed optimism about the reopening of more economies and continued concerns about the spread of the infectious delta variant coronavirus. Port of Tauranga and Ebos Group were the companies with the largest gains in the index, rising 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

 

• REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA:

Looking at the last economic data:

- RU: In June 2021, Russian industrial production increased by 10.4% year-on-year, after the previous month’s revised increase of 12.3%, while the market expected an increase of 10.1%. Due to manufacturing (7.7% vs. 12.1% in May) and the slight increase in the output of electricity, natural gas, and steam, industrial output increased for the fourth consecutive month in June, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous month; Air conditioning (8.0% vs. 8.1%). On the other hand, the mining industry (11.8% vs. 12.6%) and the water supply industry (32.3% vs. 27.4%) have seen faster output growth. As a result, industrial production grew by 1.3% on a monthly basis, rebounding from a decline of 1.7% in May.

- US: The Kansas City Federal Reserve's manufacturing production index jumped from 30 last month to 41 in July 2021, a record high. The growth in manufacturing activity continues to be driven by increased activity in durable goods factories, especially in manufacturing primary metals and metal products, computers and electronics, transportation equipment, and furniture. "In July, regional factory activity continued to expand, and expectations remain optimistic. However, 89% of companies reported supply chain problems, and 91% reported labor shortages. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City deputy governor and economist Chad Wilkerson said: “Many manufacturers have increased the overtime hours of existing employees and increased their starting salaries to attract job seekers. ".

- US: In June 2021, sales of existing homes in the United States increased by 1.4% month-on-month to 5.86 million units, the first increase in five months, compared with the market forecast of 5.9 million units. Sales in the southern United States have not changed, but sales in the other three major regions of the United States have increased. The total residential inventory reached 1.25 million units, an increase of 3.3% from May's list and a decrease of 18.8% from a year ago (1.54 million units). The median price of existing homes for all housing types is $363,300, increasing 23.4% from June 2020. "In recent months, the supply has improved slightly due to more housing starts and existing homeowners going public, all of which have led to an increase in sales. As a result, home sales continue to grow at a higher rate than before the pandemic. NAR Chief Economics Lawrence Yun said: "In a broad sense, due to tight inventory, house prices are not in danger of falling, but I do expect house prices to appreciate at a slower rate by the end of this year. ".

- US: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was revised from 0.26 in May to 0.09 in June 2021. The contribution rate of production-related indicators was +0.01, lower than the +0.26 in May; the contribution of employment, unemployment, and working hours fell from +0.15 to +0.09. At the same time, the contribution rate of personal consumption and housing category was -0.08, slightly higher than -0.11; the contribution rate of sales, order, and inventory category increased from -0.04 to +0.06. As a result, the three-month moving average of the index fell from +0.80 to +0.06.

- US: In the past week, 419,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits, which was higher than the 368,000 after the previous week’s increase and much higher than the 350,000 expected by the market. This is the highest reading in two months. The 4-week moving average excluding weekly fluctuations also increased by 750 points to 385,250 points. Employers are working hard to fill vacant positions because increased benefits have led to continued labor shortages, fears of contracting COVID-19, and finding childcare services. However, many analysts predict that the labor shortage will be eased in the fall, schools will be reopened to alleviate childcare problems, and unemployment benefits in all states will expire in September.

- EU: According to preliminary estimates, in July 2021, the Eurozone consumer confidence index fell by 1.1 points to -4.4, which was lower than the three-and-a-half-year high of -3.3 last month and lower than market expectations -2.5. Market sentiment deteriorated due to concerns about the rise in COVID-19 cases and the forced re-implementation of some restrictions in many European countries. Considering the entire European Union, consumer morale fell by 1.1 percentage points in July to -5.6.

- HK: Hong Kong’s June inflation rate fell from a four-month high of 1% in June last year to 2021, reflecting the impact of the additional electricity tariff subsidies provided by the government last June. After deducting the impact of all government one-off relief measures, the year-on-year increase was 0.4%, compared with 0.2% in May. The main upward pressure comes from electricity, natural gas and water (17.0%); clothing and footwear (3.2%); transportation (2.5%); meals bought from home (1.2%); food, excluding meals bought from home (1.1%) %); durable goods (0.8%). On the other hand, miscellaneous goods (-2.9%) and housing (-0.7%) declined.

- UK: CBI's quarterly manufacturing optimism index fell from 38 in the first three months to 27 in the third quarter of 2021, the highest level since the second quarter of 1973. The prospects are more optimistic. The investment intentions for factories and machinery and training and retraining have reached the highest levels since 1988 and 2015, respectively. However, due to factors that may limit production in the next quarter, concerns about the availability of materials/components, skilled labor, and factory capacity are at their highest levels since the mid-1970s. The manufacturing industry also continues to face severe cost pressures. Companies report that the average cost growth rate for the three months ending in July has reached the fastest level since 1980.

- UK: The Federation of British Industry's order balance fell to +17 in July 2021, but according to the latest monthly CBI Industry Trends Survey, June reached a nearly 30-year high of +19. In the three months to July, British manufacturing output grew at the fastest rate on record (44% in June and 33% in June), and it is expected to grow at a similar rate in the next quarter. At the same time, despite the continuous improvement of export orders (-7 to -8), the total order volume has shown a monthly decline for the first time since April (+17 to +19). As a result, finished goods inventories and domestic prices are also expected to decline.

- TW: Taiwan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.15% last month to 4.76% in June 2021. This is the highest unemployment rate since October 2010 due to the resurgence of COVID-19 infection and the return of public health restrictions. The unemployed population increased by 81,000 to 570,000; the employed population decreased by 97,000 to 11.301 million. At the same time, the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 58.76% from 58.7% in May.

 

• LOOKING AHEAD:

Today, investors will receive:

- EUR: French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI.

- GBP: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m, and GfK Consumer Confidence.

- AUD: Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI.

- JPY: Bank Holiday.

- CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m, and Retail Sales m/m.

- USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI.

 

• KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS:

- French 10-year government bond yield drops to 15-week low -0.083%.

- Italy's 10-year government bond yield drops to a 15-week low of 0.6692%.

- AU200 rose to a 4-week high of 7389 points.

- The yield on the US benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell slightly to 1.27% on Thursday. After the disappointing debt report triggered further concerns about the strength of the economic recovery, the rebound on the 2nd eased. In early trading, the benchmark yield hit 1.31%, as investors paused their breath and tried to eliminate concerns about the impact of the spread of the new coronavirus delta variant on the global economy. Despite this, the yield is still well below the 1.45% touched at the beginning of this month and the 1.7% felt in mid-May. Last week, Fed Chairman Powell stated that there is still a long way to achieve full employment and stable prices and hinted that the Fed is not even close to tightening policies and that inflation will remain high for several months.

- US futures reversed a slight increase on Thursday, and trading was flat. The number of first-time jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 2-month high last week, further raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery. In early trading, as investors focused on the earnings season, the earnings of AT&T, Abbot, Biogen, and Blackstone unexpectedly rose, and futures prices rose slightly. Intel will also release a report after the close today. Refinitiv's data shows that so far, 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has announced earnings, of which 88% exceeded earnings expectations.

- The yield on German 10-year government bonds did not change much in the third week of July, at -0.4%, hovering at the lowest level since mid-February, as the European Central Bank pledged to maintain the inflation rate at a record low level until inflation" Lasting" reached the 2% target. In addition, the central bank has also kept the pace of its asset purchase plan at €20 billion per month, reiterating that the PEPP envelope can be recalibrated if necessary. In other respects, global fixed income prices continue to rise, and people are worried about the economic impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19.

- The European Central Bank (ECB) revised its forward interest rate guidance at its July meeting, stating that interest rates are expected to remain at current or lower levels until the inflation rate reaches 2% before the end of the forecast period. For the remainder of the forecast period, It also judged that the actual progress of essential inflation has been sufficiently advanced to be consistent with the stable 2% level of medium-term inflation. This may also mean a short period during which the inflation rate is moderately higher than the target level. In addition, the central bank predicts that net purchases under PEPP in the next quarter will continue to be made at a significantly higher rate than the first few months of this year.

- Major Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher on Thursday. Corporate earnings were optimistic and optimistic about the recovery of the US economy. The Hang Seng Index led the gains, rising by more than 1.5%. There are reports that China will continue to open up the financial industry and improve the rules for foreign banks and insurance companies to enter the market. South Korea’s stock market also rebounded, rising by about 1% for the first time in five trading days. Fitch Ratings maintained South Korea’s credit rating at “AA-” with a stable outlook, citing Seoul’s effective management of the epidemic and strong exit. The Australian stock market rose strongly (1%), and there were reports that BHP Billiton had signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla. The Japanese stock market closed on Monday.

 

• STOCK MARKET SECTORS:

- High: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care.

- Low: Energy, Financials, Real Estate.

 

• TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS:

- EUR: The euro erased its early gains on Thursday and once again fell below the $1.18 mark, which is still close to the low of the last three and a half months. Previously, the European Central Bank kept interest rates and asset purchases unchanged as expected and adjusted forward guidance to reflect new inflation. Target. Policymakers now expect that interest rates will remain at current or lower levels until the inflation rate reaches 2% before the end of the forecast period, acknowledging that the inflation rate may be moderately higher than 2% for some time.

- CAD: The Canadian dollar was steady at 1.26 yuan/US dollar against the US dollar on Thursday, after rebounding on the previous trading day due to a recovery in risk appetite and more actual oil prices. Earlier this week, concerns about the resurgence of the global coronavirus infection triggered global risk aversion, which caused the index to drop to a 5-month low. However, investors now suggest that due to the high vaccination rate In the country, the hospitalization rate and death rate for COVID-19 are still meager, and this decline may be overdone. In terms of data, due to falling housing prices in Vancouver, housing prices in Toronto were almost flat. New home prices in Canada in June rose 0.6% from a month, the lowest in six months.

- USD: The dollar index expanded its decline to 92.5 on Thursday, as investors digested the unexpected rise in initial claims and robust earnings reports. In the past week, the number of first-time jobless claims rose to a two-month high of 4.19 million, highlighting the unevenness of the labor market recovery. So far, the performance of most companies has unexpectedly increased. Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar has been rising since mid-June. Moreover, the U.S. dollar is still close to a 4-month high after the Federal Reserve has substantially raised its inflation forecast for this year and advanced the time frame for raising interest rates.

- JPY: The yen rose to more than 110 yen against the dollar in the third week of July. As investors’ risk appetite improved, the yen rose to a nearly two-month high of 109.1 yen earlier this week. Traders are trying to eliminate worries about the spread of delta variables and the slowdown in the global economic recovery. The Japanese government has implemented a state of emergency in Tokyo before the Olympic Games on August 8. However, as more and more athletes and staff are infected, concerns about the outbreak of the Olympic Games are rising.

- AUD: The Australian dollar traded at approximately US$0.73 in the third week of July, the lowest level since late November 2020. The US dollar generally strengthened. However, due to the rapid spread of delta variants and concerns about global economic growth, the Australian dollar turned to safety. Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales, recorded 124 new COVID-19 cases today, up from 110 the day before. This is the record this year and the highest in 16 months. According to reports, most of the infection cases occurred in Sydney, and Sydney has entered the fourth week of lockdown. At the same time, Victoria entered the second week of household orders, adding 26 new cases, setting a record since September 18, 2020. Federal Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg estimates that Australia’s latest lock-up may cost about A$300 million a day. On Tuesday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that Australia needs strict restrictions this winter and mentioned that 65% or 70% of Australians must be vaccinated to end confinement.

 

• CHART OF THE DAY:

The pound rose to the $1.38 level on Thursday and earlier this week hit its lowest level since mid-January. The U.S. dollar fell due to an unexpected increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Epidemiologists are skeptical about the surge in the number of infections, and the UK lifted the final restrictions caused by the coronavirus on Monday. At the same time, investors have monitored signs of changes in the Bank of England’s stance, after policymaker Michael Saunders said last week that under inflationary pressures, the Bank of England might decide to stop its bond-purchase plan early. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden warned that with inflation expected to reach 4% this year, the World Bank might reverse monetary stimulus policies sooner than expected. The UK inflation rate reached a three-year high of 2.5% in June.• GBPUSD - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~ 1.39097, Support (consolidation) around ~ 1.36544

• GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: The US stock market fluctuated between a small decline and a rise on Thursday, and the disappointing report of jobless claims dampened domestic investors' sentiment. In the past week, the number of first-time jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a two-month high of 419,000. While the market is already a little uneasy about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant, this has further raised concerns about the strength of the labor market recovery. Due to the disappointment in Washington, investors turned to the safe trading of large technology stocks, pushing the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, to the upside range. At the same time, AT&T, Abbot, Biogen, and Blackstone performed better than expected. Intel will also release a report after the close today. Refinitiv's data shows that so far, 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has announced earnings, of which 88% exceeded earnings expectations. European stock markets rose for the third consecutive trading day on Thursday. The benchmark DAX30 index closed above 15,500 points. Investors welcomed another dovish pledge by the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain a loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future. The European Central Bank will keep the pace of the quantitative easing program unchanged and maintain negative interest rates to support the eurozone economy until substantial progress is made in achieving employment and inflation targets. Since the central bank predicts that the inflation rate will not fall below 2% until at least 2023, the above guidelines mentioned above further push forward interest rate hike expectations. In addition to the European Central Bank, optimism about economic growth and a strong recovery in earnings has also increased risk appetite. On the company side, private equity firm EQT announced oppromisingirst-half results, with its stock price rising more than 12%. The CAC40 index rose for the third consecutive trading day on Thursday, closing at 6482 points, an increase of 0.3%, which was the same as its European counterparts. Previously, market participants digested the July meeting's European Central Bank’s commitment to maintaining inflation before the 2% target continued. The ultra-loose monetary policy stance. So far, the optimistic earnings season has also boosted market sentiment. French advertising group Publicis announced an organic growth of 17.1% in basic quarterly sales, which was higher than the expected 12.9%. Currently, the organization is expected to recover from the epidemic gap a year earlier than expected. In terms of data, the French manufacturing boom index rose to 110 points in July, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 107 points, a three-year high. The London stock market performed poorly at the close on Thursday. The benchmark FTSE 100 index closed below 7000 points. The weakness of major consumer goods stocks offset the rise of industrial stocks. Consumer goods giant Unilever led the decline, falling nearly 6% after the company lowered its annual operating profit forecast due to soaring commodity costs and announced that basic sales growth in the second quarter was higher than expected. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) pledged to maintain interest rates at record lows for longer periods to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target level. On Thursday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose 12 points or 03% to close at a three-week high of 3575 points, rising for the second consecutive trading day. Chinese official media reported that China would continue to open up its financial industry and improve foreign banks and insurance. The company’s market entry rules. After Wall Street continued its rally overnight, traders were also optimistic, and market participants were dismissive of the spread of Delta variables and its impact on the global economy. According to Reuters, Nanjing, China, has begun large-scale COVID-19 testing of 9.3 million people and suspended a subway line because the city is facing the latest local virus cluster. At the same time, the China National Medical Products Administration will give the green light to Comirnaty, the first foreign-made mRNA vaccine. In business news, China Evergrande, the most indebted developer in China, said in a statement today that it has settled a legal dispute with a local bank, China Guangfabank. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 47 points to 7355 in early trading on Thursday, the second consecutive day of gains. Following the further rise in the US stock market overnight, the optimistic quarterly results boosted people’s confidence in the pace of economic recovery. . It is reported that BHP Billiton has signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla. The company will cooperate with the electric car manufacturer to reduce carbon emissions. Traders are pleased with this. In terms of COVID-19, Queensland will close its border with New South Wales for four weeks starting at 1:00 am on Friday, while Victoria has recorded 26 new cases today, from September 18, 2020. The highest daily increase since. Orocobre Ltd soared 10.6% to a record high and then fell slightly after JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for the company. It is hoped that the lithium resource exploration company will merge with Galaxy Resources Limited's (Galaxy Resources Limited) proposed merger. It has benefited a lot from it, and at the same time, profited from the high lithium spot price. At the same time, Pilbara Mining's stock price soared 9.3%. New Zealand's major stock indexes continued their upward momentum for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. The benchmark NZX 50 index hovered around 12750 points. The rise in financial stocks offset the decline in energy stocks. In the absence of any catalyst, investors weighed optimism about the reopening of more economies and continued concerns about the spread of the infectious delta variant coronavirus. Port of Tauranga and Ebos Group were the companies with the largest gains in the index, rising 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.   • REVIEWING ECONOMIC DATA: Looking at the last economic data: - RU: In June 2021, Russian industrial production increased by 10.4% year-on-year, after the previous month’s revised increase of 12.3%, while the market expected an increase of 10.1%. Due to manufacturing (7.7% vs. 12.1% in May) and the slight increase in the output of electricity, natural gas, and steam, industrial output increased for the fourth consecutive month in June, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous month; Air conditioning (8.0% vs. 8.1%). On the other hand, the mining industry (11.8% vs. 12.6%) and the water supply industry (32.3% vs. 27.4%) have seen faster output growth. As a result, industrial production grew by 1.3% on a monthly basis, rebounding from a decline of 1.7% in May. - US: The Kansas City Federal Reserve's manufacturing production index jumped from 30 last month to 41 in July 2021, a record high. The growth in manufacturing activity continues to be driven by increased activity in durable goods factories, especially in manufacturing primary metals and metal products, computers and electronics, transportation equipment, and furniture. "In July, regional factory activity continued to expand, and expectations remain optimistic. However, 89% of companies reported supply chain problems, and 91% reported labor shortages. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City deputy governor and economist Chad Wilkerson said: “Many manufacturers have increased the overtime hours of existing employees and increased their starting salaries to attract job seekers. ". - US: In June 2021, sales of existing homes in the United States increased by 1.4% month-on-month to 5.86 million units, the first increase in five months, compared with the market forecast of 5.9 million units. Sales in the southern United States have not changed, but sales in the other three major regions of the United States have increased. The total residential inventory reached 1.25 million units, an increase of 3.3% from May's list and a decrease of 18.8% from a year ago (1.54 million units). The median price of existing homes for all housing types is $363,300, increasing 23.4% from June 2020. "In recent months, the supply has improved slightly due to more housing starts and existing homeowners going public, all of which have led to an increase in sales. As a result, home sales continue to grow at a higher rate than before the pandemic. NAR Chief Economics Lawrence Yun said: "In a broad sense, due to tight inventory, house prices are not in danger of falling, but I do expect house prices to appreciate at a slower rate by the end of this year. ". - US: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was revised from 0.26 in May to 0.09 in June 2021. The contribution rate of production-related indicators was +0.01, lower than the +0.26 in May; the contribution of employment, unemployment, and working hours fell from +0.15 to +0.09. At the same time, the contribution rate of personal consumption and housing category was -0.08, slightly higher than -0.11; the contribution rate of sales, order, and inventory category increased from -0.04 to +0.06. As a result, the three-month moving average of the index fell from +0.80 to +0.06. - US: In the past week, 419,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits, which was higher than the 368,000 after the previous week’s increase and much higher than the 350,000 expected by the market. This is the highest reading in two months. The 4-week moving average excluding weekly fluctuations also increased by 750 points to 385,250 points. Employers are working hard to fill vacant positions because increased benefits have led to continued labor shortages, fears of contracting COVID-19, and finding childcare services. However, many analysts predict that the labor shortage will be eased in the fall, schools will be reopened to alleviate childcare problems, and unemployment benefits in all states will expire in September. - EU: According to preliminary estimates, in July 2021, the Eurozone consumer confidence index fell by 1.1 points to -4.4, which was lower than the three-and-a-half-year high of -3.3 last month and lower than market expectations -2.5. Market sentiment deteriorated due to concerns about the rise in COVID-19 cases and the forced re-implementation of some restrictions in many European countries. Considering the entire European Union, consumer morale fell by 1.1 percentage points in July to -5.6. - HK: Hong Kong’s June inflation rate fell from a four-month high of 1% in June last year to 2021, reflecting the impact of the additional electricity tariff subsidies provided by the government last June. After deducting the impact of all government one-off relief measures, the year-on-year increase was 0.4%, compared with 0.2% in May. The main upward pressure comes from electricity, natural gas and water (17.0%); clothing and footwear (3.2%); transportation (2.5%); meals bought from home (1.2%); food, excluding meals bought from home (1.1%) %); durable goods (0.8%). On the other hand, miscellaneous goods (-2.9%) and housing (-0.7%) declined. - UK: CBI's quarterly manufacturing optimism index fell from 38 in the first three months to 27 in the third quarter of 2021, the highest level since the second quarter of 1973. The prospects are more optimistic. The investment intentions for factories and machinery and training and retraining have reached the highest levels since 1988 and 2015, respectively. However, due to factors that may limit production in the next quarter, concerns about the availability of materials/components, skilled labor, and factory capacity are at their highest levels since the mid-1970s. The manufacturing industry also continues to face severe cost pressures. Companies report that the average cost growth rate for the three months ending in July has reached the fastest level since 1980. - UK: The Federation of British Industry's order balance fell to +17 in July 2021, but according to the latest monthly CBI Industry Trends Survey, June reached a nearly 30-year high of +19. In the three months to July, British manufacturing output grew at the fastest rate on record (44% in June and 33% in June), and it is expected to grow at a similar rate in the next quarter. At the same time, despite the continuous improvement of export orders (-7 to -8), the total order volume has shown a monthly decline for the first time since April (+17 to +19). As a result, finished goods inventories and domestic prices are also expected to decline. - TW: Taiwan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.15% last month to 4.76% in June 2021. This is the highest unemployment rate since October 2010 due to the resurgence of COVID-19 infection and the return of public health restrictions. The unemployed population increased by 81,000 to 570,000; the employed population decreased by 97,000 to 11.301 million. At the same time, the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 58.76% from 58.7% in May.   • LOOKING AHEAD: Today, investors will receive: - EUR: French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI. - GBP: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m, and GfK Consumer Confidence. - AUD: Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI. - JPY: Bank Holiday. - CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m, and Retail Sales m/m. - USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI.   • KEY EQUITY & BOND MARKET DRIVERS: - French 10-year government bond yield drops to 15-week low -0.083%. - Italy's 10-year government bond yield drops to a 15-week low of 0.6692%. - AU200 rose to a 4-week high of 7389 points. - The yield on the US benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell slightly to 1.27% on Thursday. After the disappointing debt report triggered further concerns about the strength of the economic recovery, the rebound on the 2nd eased. In early trading, the benchmark yield hit 1.31%, as investors paused their breath and tried to eliminate concerns about the impact of the spread of the new coronavirus delta variant on the global economy. Despite this, the yield is still well below the 1.45% touched at the beginning of this month and the 1.7% felt in mid-May. Last week, Fed Chairman Powell stated that there is still a long way to achieve full employment and stable prices and hinted that the Fed is not even close to tightening policies and that inflation will remain high for several months. - US futures reversed a slight increase on Thursday, and trading was flat. The number of first-time jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 2-month high last week, further raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery. In early trading, as investors focused on the earnings season, the earnings of AT&T, Abbot, Biogen, and Blackstone unexpectedly rose, and futures prices rose slightly. Intel will also release a report after the close today. Refinitiv's data shows that so far, 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has announced earnings, of which 88% exceeded earnings expectations. - The yield on German 10-year government bonds did not change much in the third week of July, at -0.4%, hovering at the lowest level since mid-February, as the European Central Bank pledged to maintain the inflation rate at a record low level until inflation" Lasting" reached the 2% target. In addition, the central bank has also kept the pace of its asset purchase plan at €20 billion per month, reiterating that the PEPP envelope can be recalibrated if necessary. In other respects, global fixed income prices continue to rise, and people are worried about the economic impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19. - The European Central Bank (ECB) revised its forward interest rate guidance at its July meeting, stating that interest rates are expected to remain at current or lower levels until the inflation rate reaches 2% before the end of the forecast period. For the remainder of the forecast period, It also judged that the actual progress of essential inflation has been sufficiently advanced to be consistent with the stable 2% level of medium-term inflation. This may also mean a short period during which the inflation rate is moderately higher than the target level. In addition, the central bank predicts that net purchases under PEPP in the next quarter will continue to be made at a significantly higher rate than the first few months of this year. - Major Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher on Thursday. Corporate earnings were optimistic and optimistic about the recovery of the US economy. The Hang Seng Index led the gains, rising by more than 1.5%. There are reports that China will continue to open up the financial industry and improve the rules for foreign banks and insurance companies to enter the market. South Korea’s stock market also rebounded, rising by about 1% for the first time in five trading days. Fitch Ratings maintained South Korea’s credit rating at “AA-” with a stable outlook, citing Seoul’s effective management of the epidemic and strong exit. The Australian stock market rose strongly (1%), and there were reports that BHP Billiton had signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla. The Japanese stock market closed on Monday.   • STOCK MARKET SECTORS: - High: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care. - Low: Energy, Financials, Real Estate.   • TOP CURRENCY MARKET DRIVERS: - EUR: The euro erased its early gains on Thursday and once again fell below the $1.18 mark, which is still close to the low of the last three and a half months. Previously, the European Central Bank kept interest rates and asset purchases unchanged as expected and adjusted forward guidance to reflect new inflation. Target. Policymakers now expect that interest rates will remain at current or lower levels until the inflation rate reaches 2% before the end of the forecast period, acknowledging that the inflation rate may be moderately higher than 2% for some time. - CAD: The Canadian dollar was steady at 1.26 yuan/US dollar against the US dollar on Thursday, after rebounding on the previous trading day due to a recovery in risk appetite and more actual oil prices. Earlier this week, concerns about the resurgence of the global coronavirus infection triggered global risk aversion, which caused the index to drop to a 5-month low. However, investors now suggest that due to the high vaccination rate In the country, the hospitalization rate and death rate for COVID-19 are still meager, and this decline may be overdone. In terms of data, due to falling housing prices in Vancouver, housing prices in Toronto were almost flat. New home prices in Canada in June rose 0.6% from a month, the lowest in six months. - USD: The dollar index expanded its decline to 92.5 on Thursday, as investors digested the unexpected rise in initial claims and robust earnings reports. In the past week, the number of first-time jobless claims rose to a two-month high of 4.19 million, highlighting the unevenness of the labor market recovery. So far, the performance of most companies has unexpectedly increased. Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar has been rising since mid-June. Moreover, the U.S. dollar is still close to a 4-month high after the Federal Reserve has substantially raised its inflation forecast for this year and advanced the time frame for raising interest rates. - JPY: The yen rose to more than 110 yen against the dollar in the third week of July. As investors’ risk appetite improved, the yen rose to a nearly two-month high of 109.1 yen earlier this week. Traders are trying to eliminate worries about the spread of delta variables and the slowdown in the global economic recovery. The Japanese government has implemented a state of emergency in Tokyo before the Olympic Games on August 8. However, as more and more athletes and staff are infected, concerns about the outbreak of the Olympic Games are rising. - AUD: The Australian dollar traded at approximately US$0.73 in the third week of July, the lowest level since late November 2020. The US dollar generally strengthened. However, due to the rapid spread of delta variants and concerns about global economic growth, the Australian dollar turned to safety. Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales, recorded 124 new COVID-19 cases today, up from 110 the day before. This is the record this year and the highest in 16 months. According to reports, most of the infection cases occurred in Sydney, and Sydney has entered the fourth week of lockdown. At the same time, Victoria entered the second week of household orders, adding 26 new cases, setting a record since September 18, 2020. Federal Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg estimates that Australia’s latest lock-up may cost about A$300 million a day. On Tuesday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that Australia needs strict restrictions this winter and mentioned that 65% or 70% of Australians must be vaccinated to end confinement.   • CHART OF THE DAY: The pound rose to the $1.38 level on Thursday and earlier this week hit its lowest level since mid-January. The U.S. dollar fell due to an unexpected increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Epidemiologists are skeptical about the surge in the number of infections, and the UK lifted the final restrictions caused by the coronavirus on Monday. At the same time, investors have monitored signs of changes in the Bank of England’s stance, after policymaker Michael Saunders said last week that under inflationary pressures, the Bank of England might decide to stop its bond-purchase plan early. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden warned that with inflation expected to reach 4% this year, the World Bank might reverse monetary stimulus policies sooner than expected. The UK inflation rate reached a three-year high of 2.5% in June.• GBPUSD - D1, Resistance (target zone) around ~ 1.39097, Support (consolidation) around ~ 1.36544